toob schreef op 14 november 2024 09:27:
To provide a valuation for ASML based on the information given in the press release, we'll use a simplified Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. We'll make some assumptions based on the data provided and use the 9% discount rate you specified.
Key Information from the Press Release
- ASML projects annual revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030
- Gross margin is expected to be between 56% and 60% by 2030
- The semiconductor market is expected to grow at approximately 9% annually from 2025-2030
Assumptions and Calculations
Let's use the midpoint of the projected ranges for our calculations:
1. Projected 2030 Revenue: €52 billion (midpoint of €44-60 billion range)
2. Projected 2030 Gross Margin: 58% (midpoint of 56-60% range)
We'll need to make some additional assumptions:
3. Operating Margin: Let's assume 35% (typical for high-performing tech companies)
4. Tax Rate: Assume 25% (approximate global average)
5. Growth Rate beyond 2030: 3% (conservative long-term growth estimate)
Now, let's calculate:
1. 2030 Operating Profit: €52 billion * 35% = €18.2 billion
2. 2030 Net Income: €18.2 billion * (1 - 0.25) = €13.65 billion
DCF Valuation
Using the Gordon Growth Model for terminal value:
Terminal Value = 2031 Cash Flow / (Discount Rate - Growth Rate)
= (€13.65 billion * 1.03) / (0.09 - 0.03)
= €234.45 billion
Present Value of Terminal Value (discounted back 6 years from 2030):
= €234.45 billion / (1.09^6) = €139.76 billion
For simplicity, let's assume cash flows grow linearly from the current year (2024) to 2030:
Average annual growth in cash flow = (€13.65 billion - Current Cash Flow) / 6 years
Assuming current cash flow is around €5 billion (estimated based on recent performance):
Average annual growth = (€13.65 billion - €5 billion) / 6 = €1.44 billion per year
Present Value of Cash Flows 2024-2030:
2024: €5.00 billion / 1.09^1 = €4.59 billion
2025: €6.44 billion / 1.09^2 = €5.42 billion
2026: €7.88 billion / 1.09^3 = €6.08 billion
2027: €9.32 billion / 1.09^4 = €6.59 billion
2028: €10.76 billion / 1.09^5 = €6.97 billion
2029: €12.20 billion / 1.09^6 = €7.27 billion
2030: €13.65 billion / 1.09^7 = €7.45 billion
Sum of Present Values 2024-2030: €44.37 billion
Total Valuation:
= Present Value of Cash Flows + Present Value of Terminal Value
= €44.37 billion + €139.76 billion
= €184.13 billion
Conclusion
Based on the given information and assumptions, using a 9% discount rate, the estimated valuation for ASML is approximately €184 billion. This valuation reflects the company's strong growth prospects in the semiconductor industry, particularly with the expected boost from AI technologies and the continued demand for advanced lithography systems.
It's important to note that this is a simplified model and actual valuation could vary based on more detailed financial information, market conditions, and potential risks not accounted for in this calculation. Additionally, ASML's actual performance may differ from these projections due to various factors mentioned in their forward-looking statements disclaimer.