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Analyst expectations 2Q 2007?

1. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2007 13:11

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   The one American analyst that has posted figures has $53 million in revenue(39 million euro), and a loss of $.22 cents/share(approximately 10.5 million euro) or -.17 euro/share.
   
   On E-Trade, they have Crucell listed as
   Strong Buy 0
   Buy 2
   Hold 4
   Sell 2
   Strong sell 3
   
   Fidelity has about the same breakdown. This may come as a suprise to many Crucell Bulls
   
   Last quarter, I didn't see any European estimates until the day before the CC, Yahoo europe doesn't have any Quarterly, and the yearly estimates are 8 months old.
   
   I know there are many who don't think any of this matters, but of course it does.The good thing is there are a lot of analysts who are negative or unimpressed with Crucell(at least on paper). A good quarter, with some upside suprises would do wonders for the stock and finally turn this long term downtrend around. What would it take to impress the European Analysts? 45 million euro? 50 million euro? Up the revenues to 230 million euro or better? Improved margins? Quarterly loss of less than 10 million euro?
   
   This was 2006 2Q release
   
   "Crucell Announces Second Quarter 2006 Results
   
   Leiden, The Netherlands, August 29, 2006 - Dutch biotechnology company Crucell N.V. (Euronext, NASDAQ: CRXL, SWX: CRX) today announced its financial results for the first half-year ended June 30, 2006, based on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
   
   Total revenues for the second quarter were €18.9 million and other operating income was €2.8 million. Net loss for the second quarter of 2006 attributable to equity holders of the parent amounted to €25.7 million. Total revenues for the six months ended June 30, 2006, were €30.6 million; other operating income amounted to €4.8 million for the first six months of 2006. Net loss for the first six months of 2006 attributable to equity holders of the parent amounted to €40.4 million."
   
   That was revenues of 18.7 million euro and a loss of 25.7 million euro. I am hoping Crucell will handily beat revenues and net loss(a profit is too much to hope for) by a wide margin both YOY and sequentially (Q1 revenues were 35 million and loss of 18 million euro).
   
   Managing the estimates is Oya Yavuz's biggest job. I am praying that after the upped guidance to 140 to 150 million euro(only to be thwarted by 'a holiday'?!)fiasco. Followed by the "try to placate the Street" comment by Brus at the 4Q06 CC that the 1Q07 numbers would be "very strong", only to have them lose more money in 1Q07 than in 06. I am praying that Brus and Kruimer did not compound the mistake by giving optimistic numbers in May....especially after waiting so long. I am hoping that "220 to 225 revenues and cash flow break even" are not "Gee, I think we can do that, what do you think Leon?" numbers. I hope they were cold, sober, pessimistic, 'if almost everything goes wrong' numbers. The first of the "under promise, over deliver" numbers, the first of the "grown-up" numbers. This is also assuming that Kruimer(who actually has an impressive resume), can get the expenses for Crucell in line.
   
   BTW-July 2007 had more licenses/deals announced than any July on record, with 3. July is traditionally the worst month...substantive news wise(not counting internal news)...for Crucell. Last year we had one license and the discontinuation of Auerogen.
   
   
2. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2007 13:41

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   www.analist.nl/index.php?page=aandeel...
3. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2007 13:49

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   Dank u DieGroeneGigant
   
   But it does not have any actual estimates for 2Q07, doesn't even give revenue estimates for 2007.
   
   The pro-Crucell analysts need a reason to be able to up estimates, and that is a sign that Crucell has Berna expenses under control, and that sales are better than expected.
4. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2007 14:00

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   Thank Ron, for your useful contributions. I have the impression that Mr. Brus and Mr. Kruimer are familiar with the critics on their comments in the past and that they have improved their communications style. On the other hand, IMHO a pure pessimistic view would not help the Crucell shareholder either. As the Dutch say, “to speak is silver, to keep silent is gold”.
5. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2007 14:21

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   "spreken is zilveren, stil is houden gouden"...that's via Babelfish.
   
   Keeping silent may be gold, if you built up a reputation of beating the expectations, but Crucell, Brs, Kruimer et al, have dug themselves a hole....and it is time to stop digging. They had to say something about 2007, I am hoping that it was not more digging.
   
   
6. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2007 14:34

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   The expression is "spreken is zilver, zwijgen is goud". I hope they'll say as few as possible about the expectations, we have had enough forecasts.
7. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2007 14:48

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   I do not have a problem with withholding forecasts this CC, so long as we solid progress on product sales and margins.
   
   If the 2nd quarter comes in like the first, with 26 million euro in product sales, 35 in total sales and a loss of 18 million euro, the stock will continue downward, because management will be saying "Trust us, we always keep our promises" for the rest of the year. That would be too risky for the analysts and they will become even more bearish.
   
   
8. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 12:52

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   This is a post from Investorvillage from May 7 by Donnbonn, two days before the conference call. I am amazed that no one can tell me what the concensus is now. Before I post it, let me say I rechecked the estimate for earnings, and the loss of .22 by the American Analyst. The loss of .22 is in Euros, and would be @14 million Euro.
   
   "OUTLOOK Crucell Q1 sales seen higher; but focus is on outlook
   
   Last Updated: 7-May-2007 12:37:37
   
   Sales are seen jumping to 35.7-39.8 mln eur versus 11.7 mln in the same period a year earlier, according to a roundup of analyst previews by Thomson Financial news. The company is seen reporting a net loss of 14.5-16.8 mln eur, against a 14.7 mln eur loss in the first quarter of 2006.
   
   The sales increase will be "primarily driven by the acquisitions of Berna Biotech, BPC and SBL," as well as sales of Quinvaxem, the company's combination paediatric vaccine, analysts at Kempen & Co said in a preview note.
   
   The "main item to watch," according to the Kempen analysts, "will be any statements on the revenue outlook of 'in excess of 200 mln eur' for FY 2007." They are referring to CEO Ronald Brus' previous statements that he expects an excess of 200 mln eur in sales this year.
   
   "In past years, Crucell has fine-tuned its guidance at its Q1 results and we believe that will be the case again this year," the analysts wrote, saying "there is room for increased guidance, particularly given the wide variance in estimates." Beyond financial guidance, they are looking for updates on clinical and business development. The Kempen analysts rate the share at 'buy' with a 26 eur price target.
   
   Rabo Securities analysts also see sales growth driven by Crucell's acquisitions and Quinvaxem sales and said in a note to clients that they also anticipate an adapted outlook.
   
   "We expect Crucell will raise its revenues target to at least 200 mln eur," the analysts said, "while reiterating its cash break-even target" set for this year.
   
   The Rabo analysts will also look for product sales and an update on the order pipeline.
   
   They rate Crucell at 'buy' with a 25 eur price target."
   
   
9. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 13:22

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   quote:

   DieGroeneGigant schreef:

   www.analist.nl/index.php?page=aandeel...
   

   Gemiddeld koersdoel: € 21,65
10. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 13:49

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    DieGroeneGigant schreef:
    
    You have posted this before.
    
    www.analist.nl/index.php?page=aandeel...
    
    It is simply a rehash of past performance, and Analyst Targets, not Analyst estimates for 2Q. It does not give any expectations for 2Q07. There will be a note out a couple of days before earnings giving European Analyst consensus figures for revenues, earnings, margins and outlook for the rest of the year for 2Q07, but surely there must be a site which lists estimates for 2Q. Belwo, what is cut and pasted from Yahoo US, under Analyst Estimates. Unfortunately, it is a table, so it doesn't cut and paste well, but you get the idea. It also shows this years "earnings" to be -.70., cash flow break even excluding cap ex does not mean earnings will be 0, it means they will not burn any cash...which is different.
    
    Earnings Est Current Qtr
    Jun-07 Next Qtr
    Sep-07 Current Year
    Dec-07 Next Year
    Dec-08
    Avg. Estimate -0.22 -0.17 -0.70 0.30
    No. of Analysts 1 1 1 1
    Low Estimate -0.22 -0.17 -0.70 0.30
    High Estimate -0.22 -0.17 -0.70 0.30
    Year Ago EPS 0.00 -0.46 -1.92 -0.70
    
    Next Earnings Date: 14-Aug-07 - Set a Reminder
    
    Revenue Est Current Qtr
    Jun-07 Next Qtr
    Sep-07 Current Year
    Dec-07 Next Year
    Dec-08
    Avg. Estimate 53.35M 92.06M 310.59M 412.46M
    No. of Analysts 1 1 1 1
    Low Estimate 53.35M 92.06M 310.59M 412.46M
    High Estimate 53.35M 92.06M 310.59M 412.46M
    Year Ago Sales 23.74M 32.94M 176.95M 310.59M
    Sales Growth (year/est) 124.8% 179.5% 75.5% 32.8%
    
    
    Earnings History Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07
    EPS Est 0.00 -0.28 -0.45 -0.28
    EPS Actual 0.00 -0.46 -0.53 -0.38
    Difference -0.18 -0.08 -0.10
    Surprise % % -64.3% -17.8% -35.7%
    
    
    EPS Trends Current Qtr
    Jun-07 Next Qtr
    Sep-07 Current Year
    Dec-07 Next Year
    Dec-08
    Current Estimate -0.22 -0.17 -0.70 0.30
    7 Days Ago -0.22 -0.17 -0.70 0.30
    30 Days Ago -0.21 -0.16 -0.68 0.29
    60 Days Ago -0.22 -0.16 -0.69 0.30
    90 Days Ago -0.24 -0.04 -0.33 0.00
    
    
    EPS Revisions Current Qtr
    Jun-07 Next Qtr
    Sep-07 Current Year
    Dec-07 Next Year
    Dec-08
    Up Last 7 Days 0 0 0 0
    Up Last 30 Days 0 0 0 0
    Down Last 30 Days 0 0 0 0
    Down Last 90 Days
    
    
    
    
12. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 13:54

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    Je doet mij teveel moeite om de koers omlaag te praten. Geen zuivere koffie. En daarom koop ik.
13. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 15:35

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    Okay, I'll give it a try...This is my estimate for revenues for 2Q07
    
    Based on last years figures of 18.9 in product sales, and other operating income of 2.8 million for a total of 21.7 million euro.
    
    Last year in second quarter there were no Quinvaxem shipments, Dukoral sales(SBL) or Vivotif sales(Berna Products)
    
    My Estimate for Quinvaxem breakdown for rest of 2007, and full year 2008 and 2009... are $48, $73, $83, for a total of $202 million. One quarters worth of Quinvaxem for 2007 is $16 million. One quarters worth of the PAHO contract is $5million. $16 million plus $5 is $21 million. In euros(based on 1.36 exchange rate) is €15.44 million.
    
    Combined SBL and Berna Products Revenues for 2005(last year we had figures) is €35 million. One quarter for that is €8.75 million
    
    €21.7 + €15.44 + €8.75 = €45.89 million
    
    Unlike Flu vaccine, I see no reason why Quinvaxem, Dukoral and Vivotif should be a second half of the year vaccine. As a matter of fact, it would seem that Dukoral and Vivotif(and Epaxal for that matter) should be concentrated in 2Q and 3Q(prior to and during vacation season for Northern Hemisphere). This is assuming no organic growth of these products(or products sales dropping off for that matter). Organic growth of marketed products was stated at 1Q07 to be up double digits over the prior year.
    
    Earnings are another matter. But I got the impression that some of the expenses were concentrated in the 1st quarter.
    
    
14. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 16:16

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    quote:

    DieGroeneGigant schreef:

    Je doet mij teveel moeite om de koers omlaag te praten. Geen zuivere koffie. En daarom koop ik.
    

    Klopt! deze persoon, die overigens uitstekend Nederlands blijkt te begrijpen, was langdurig actief als basher op de amerikaanse crucell-site.
    
    seriousforfun
15. Justabeliever 3 augustus 2007 16:20

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    Ron,
    
    Please note that a major chunck of SBL and Berna Products sales will be offsetting sales by the old Berna, as these have now become Intra Group sales: these sales have to be striked out as it is now one company and will otherwise lead to doublecounts.
    
    All in all, I'ld guess that the €8.75m offsets about €6m IG revenues from Berna, leaving much more pressure on organic growth to fill the gap.
    
    On the positive side, we will find Telacris sales included for the first time, for which I've no idea how much we should take into consideration. I hope this will be a positive surprise. :)
    
    By the way, thank you for your contributions sofar, which I think are really helping to bring this forum to a higher standard.
    
    Have a good weekend!
16. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 16:33

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    You are implying that €6 million in Berna Product sales and SBL sales were sales of Berna Biotech products? I understand SBL sold other products not produced by SBL(Dukoral), but €6 million seems high.
    
    What products that were counted in the SBL and Berna Products 2004 revenue figures were counted in Berna Biotech numbers, hence resulting in a possible double count?
    
    Thank you for your reply.
17. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 16:37

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    quote:

    seriousforfun schreef:

    [quote=DieGroeneGigant]
    Je doet mij teveel moeite om de koers omlaag te praten. Geen zuivere koffie. En daarom koop ik.
    [/quote]
    
    Klopt! deze persoon, die overigens uitstekend Nederlands blijkt te begrijpen, was langdurig actief als basher op de amerikaanse crucell-site.
    
    seriousforfun
    

    I am amused that I am considered a long term basher op de amerikaanse crucell-site.
    I own many shares of Crucell, and I am not a basher, but try and be critical of Crucell, but fair. But feel free to call me a basher if it makes you feel better.
18. Justabeliever 3 augustus 2007 16:43

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    Ron,
    
    Crucell never disclosed the exact sales split for this and I base myself on own assumptions and what I think to remember from reading here and there: SBL 50% of €25m/a Berna products and BPC 100% of €10m/a Berna products, I estimate to be roughly €22.5m/a; i.e. +-€6m/q.
    
    Besides Dukarol, SBL has significant sales from Berna and I'm pretty sure that 50% is a good guess. I'ld need to search through my documents to retrieve the source for this.
    
    I agree there is insufficient substance behind this estimate to underline the accuracy at this point in time, however it's surely better than zero. :)
19. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 17:09

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    In other words, the purchase of Berna Products and SBL vaccines, was, to some extent, simply vertical integration. One of the assumptions you are making is that, in order to have double counting, is that Berna Products and SBL did not mark up the price they paid from Berna Biotech. In other words, if Berna Products charged 20 euro per dose of Vivotif, and Berna Biotech charged Berna Products 20 euro per dose wholesale, then yes, counting both sales would be double counting. What we are losing in revenues is the price Berna Biotech was charging Berna Products and SBL. The end product price remains the same.
    
    I am suprised that I have not heard this mentioned either at a CC or the AGM. Partial Talecris distribution in this quarter, and Guardisil distribution for the Nordic countries for that matter.
20. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 18:23

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    Justabeliever,
    
    Assuming a 50% margin by SBL and Berna Products on Berna Biotech products, that would knock 3million euro off my estimate...to make it 42.89 million euro. Again, this is assuming no YOY organic growth of products. Epaxal and Dukoral now being sold in China, with the Epaxal bottleneck in production removed.
21. [verwijderd] 3 augustus 2007 19:08

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    Kunnen we weer gewoon in het het hollands verder gaan ? I snep thear not a beet from.