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Frank van Dongen - Honey Fannie

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  3. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 10:46

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    redding van Fannie Mae zou goed in de vorm van Northern Rock cq Bear Stearns kunnen komen.

    Financiele stabiliteit gered, aandeelhouder geld kwijt, en deze affaire een kopie van het DAF debacle?
  4. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 12:23

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    quote:

    BJL schreef:

    redding van Fannie Mae zou goed in de vorm van Northern Rock cq Bear Stearns kunnen komen.

    Financiele stabiliteit gered, aandeelhouder geld kwijt, en deze affaire een kopie van het DAF debacle?
    obligaties kopen, aandelen verkopen?
  5. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 12:39

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    @Frank

    zie BJL; een razend slecht idee! Aandeelhouders lopen straks weg met niks, nakkes, nada!!

    Doe dit liever met Unilever, Aalberts of voor de dare devil Aegon of ING...
  6. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 12:40

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    De redding kan theoretisch inderdaad een soort DAF worden, maar dat is inderdaad de "gok" die je neemt. Maar als je voor de put dec 2,50 0,75 ontvangt is het verlies te overzien als je het maar met een klein deel van je portefeuille doet. Ook zou ik dit op Tom2 durven maar daar heb ik reeds de aandelen gewoon gekocht. ook zijn de Vols hier lager dan in Fannie....
  8. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 12:45

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    idd Hoog risico, hoge winstkansen. Ik pas. In de huidige gedeprimeerde beurs liggen er immmers een hoop koopjes voor het oprapen (en dan bedoel ik niet eerder genoemde fondsen). De vraag is alleen, hoe gek maken de labiele medebeleggers het nog. Maw wordt goedkoop nog spotgoedkoop??
  10. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 14:42

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    ft alphaville:

    This just out. We’ve highlighted some of the more damaging analysis.

    New York, August 22, 2008 — Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the preferred stock ratings of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) to Baa3 from A1 and the Bank Financial Strength Ratings (BFSR) to D+ from B-.

    The preferred stock ratings and BFSRs remain on review for possible further downgrade. Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s Aaa senior long-term debt and Prime-1 short-term debt ratings were affirmed with stable outlooks.
    The firms’ Aa2 subordinated debt ratings were affirmed, but the outlook was changed to negative from stable.

    Moody’s said the downgrade of the BFSRs reflects Moody’s view that Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s financial flexibility to manage potential volatility in its mortgage risk exposures is constricted. In particular, given recent market movement, Moody’s believes these firms currently have limited access to common and preferred equity capital at economically attractive terms.

    Moody’s added that these GSE’s more limited financial flexibility also restricts their ability to pursue their public policy mission of providing liquidity, stability and affordability to the US housing market.

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac currently make up approximately 75% of the mortgage market in the US. A reduction in the capacity of these firms to support the US mortgage market could have significant repercussions for the US economy.

    In an effort to thwart broader negative economic effects, Moody’s believes the likelihood of direct support from the United States Treasury has increased.

    Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s Aaa senior long-term, Prime-1 short-term and Aa2 subordinated debt ratings were affirmed based on Moody’s view that these GSEs benefit from very high systemic support because of their central role in mortgage finance in the United States, as well as the importance of housing within in the U.S. economy.

    With regard to the firms’ subordinated debt, Moody’s believes that it too benefits from implicit support. Moody’s views it unlikely that the US Treasury would allow Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to defer payment on a debt instrument given potential market ramifications.

    However, the negative outlook on the subordinated debt rating recognizes that this is a fluid situation and that, though unlikely, this could change.

    “Given Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s importance to the US mortgage market, we believe there is a very high level of support for their debt from the US Treasury,” said Brian Harris, a Moody’s Senior Vice President. “And, given these GSEs more limited ability to raise capital and grow their portfolio to accomplish their public policy role in a time of mortgage market turmoil, we believe that there’s an increased probability of actual support coming from the US Treasury.”

    The downgrade and continued review for further downgrade of the preferred stock ratings reflects a greater risk of dividend omission on the preferred stock.

    This greater risk stems from two issues. First, both Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s mortgage portfolio performance is worse and more volatile than Moody’s expected.This could lead to the firms breaching their capital requirements that govern their ability to pay a preferred dividend.

    Second, there is uncertainty with regard to how these preferred securities would be treated should the US Treasury provide Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac with support. Should a capital injection result in the subordination of the existing preferred stock, or should it result in any missed preferred dividends, then the preferred stock rating would be lowered further.

    Moody’s also recognizes that the type of support that the US Treasury may provide, and the implications of such support for these GSE’s various securities, would likely affect the firms’ future financial flexibility and market access.

    Moody’s believes that this would weigh into the deliberations as the US Treasury balances its stated efforts to promote market stability and mortgage availability.

    During its continuing review for downgrade of the BFSR and preferred stock ratings, Moody’s will further develop its credit loss estimates on Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s portfolios and consider the implications of any changes on the firms’ capital cushions to absorb greater losses.

    The rating agency noted that both Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s preferred stock has features that may lead to a suspension of a dividend if certain capital levels are not maintained.

    Moody’s Bank Financial Strength Rating measures the likelihood that an institution will require extraordinary financial assistance from third parties, such as the government or shareholders, rather than the probability that a financial institution would receive such support.

    Key rating considerations include financial fundamentals, franchise value, and business and asset diversification.

    The following ratings were downgraded and remain on review for possible downgrade:

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — Bank financial strength rating to D+ from B-; Preferred stock to Baa3 from A1.

    The following ratings were affirmed with a stable outlook: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - Senior long-term debt at Aaa; Short-term debt at Prime-1

    The following rating was affirmed with a negative outlook: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - Subordinated debt at Aa2.

    Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s Baseline Credit Assessment was lowered to 10 from 5, and remains on review for possible further revision lower. A Baseline Credit Assessment of 10 maps to a Baa3 rating on the Moody’s long-term debt rating scale.
  12. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 17:21

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    Waar is trouwens de portefeuille van je gebleven waarin je 70% verlies stond? Enkele weken geleden kon je die portefeuille nog inkijken op de startpagina van iex.nl. Of ben ik nu in de war?
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