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rapport marcel wijma

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  1. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 10:48
    10.0 Pre-Size™, the biotech company valuation model
    Contrary to common practices Van Leeuwenhoeck
    Research (VLR) does not apply the simple but unreliable
    discounted cash-flow method on revenue-generating products
    alone, but rather approaches the entire product pipeline
    for valuation.
    11.1 Valuation parameters
    The input needed from the company under review to create a
    reliable valuation is paramount. We closely work together
    with senior management to gauge all essential elements that
    constitute the required input for our valuation model (the
    information is usually given to us under non-disclosure). Risk
    factors, time line estimates and product parameters are
    applied in a sensible way, using a distribution model with a
    mean and a spread for all uncertain elements in the valuation.
    All individual products, whether under research, in pre-clinical
    or clinical phases, under registration, or already marketed,
    undergo the rigorous screening and attribute labeling before
    being used in the valuation determination process. This process
    is a Monte Carlo Analysis with 5,000 iterations, resulting
    in a time-related company valuation that is far more precise
    than any other method used in the market.
    11.2 The model outlined
    The VLR valuation model Pre-Size™ is a three-dimensional
    model featuring product development through all phases
    (research – preclinical – Phases I-II-III – registration - market)
    for all products in the pipeline. In essence every product is
    characterised by the existing and expected contingencies in
    time and money related to each product. All expenses per
    phase, detailed to the lowest level (such as cost per patient in
    Phase-III, cash burn, out-of-pocket costs), and all revenues
    (such as milestone related capital injections, license revenues)
    are matched with uncertainties per phase transition (characterised
    as a distribution with a mean and a spread). The time
    axis goes back to the product development start and extends
    all the way to the expiration of revenue generating products
    and patents. The only thing our model cannot do of course is
    predict currently non-existing products generated in Research
    that may contribute to future revenues. Therefore our company
    valuation as described in our Research Reports represents
    a safe and lower border of the valuation distribution. The
    VLR Research Reports contain elements of the valuation
    model, but do not reveal company confidential information
    that is necessary for VLR to fine tune the model in order to
    narrow the bandwidth of the valuation.
    11.3 Assumptions
    To calculate the value of the company we made use of the
    information given to us by the company regarding the pipeline
    and the costs involved in the different phases. Next to this
    we make estimates on the size of the markets, while also the
    product life cycle of a drug is taken into account.
    Also riskfactors will be taken into account.
    11.4 Valuation Crucell
    In making a valuation on Crucell we made separate valuations
    of the projects the company, which are:
    • PER.C6: license income of current and future licensees as
    well as the royalty stream. We expect the royalty stream from
    licensees on products manufactured with PER.C6 to start as
    of 2010. Next to this we separately take into account the
    exclusive license Crucell has with Merck in using PER.C6 for
    the development of a vaccine against HIV.
    • STAR: Dependent on the outcome of the evaluation of
    Genentech on STAR, we think this technology can be very
    important for the company. If the issue of bioequivalence is
    solved we expect both cashflow from licenses and royalties
    which can be far higher than the revenues coming from
    PER.C6. At this time we give it a 60% chance that the outcome
    of the tests done by Genentech will be successful.
    • Vaccine portfolio. We valued each vaccine project of Crucell
    separately, being the vaccines for influenza, West Nile virus,
    ebola and malaria. The most important vaccine for its present
    valuation is the influenza vaccine, as the influenza market is
    around USD 1.5 billion. The other markets are between USD
    75 million (ebola) and USD 400 million (West Nile Virus).
    • Blood factors. The development of blood factors with
    PER.C6 is still in an early stage. Products are not expected to
    be launched before 2010. But the potential is considerable,
    especially for a new variant of EPO, which is a multi billion
    dollar market. Also the market for factor V Leiden and the
    possible production of other blood factors, makes this a
    potential multi billion dollar market.
    30 Van Leeuwenhoeck Research
    VALUATION
    11.4.1 Valuating PER.C6
    In valuating the PER.C6 technology, we made a distinction
    between the license income the company gets from companies
    dealing with gene therapy, vaccine development or proteins.
    We calculate different fees for these licenses. The licenses
    Crucell issues to companies that develop proteins are split
    with DSM for which the company is getting several milestone
    payments. The other licenses Crucell issues on its own. We
    estimate Crucell can issue 5-10 non exclusive commercial
    licenses on PER.C6 every year.
    Next to this we calculate a royalty stream from products
    manufactured with PER.C6 that will be on the market as of
    2008. With the current licenses issued on PER.C6 and the
    ones that will be licensed out under the cooperation with
    DSM, we expect that Crucell is able to get low digit royalties
    on therapeutic proteins that will be on the market. We estimate
    that after 2010 25-30% of all therapeutic proteins on
    the market are produced on PER.C6. A discount factor of
    20% is used.
    Seperately we have calculated the exclusive license agreement
    with Merck for HIV. We expect this vaccine in 2010 on the
    market with Crucell getting a high single digit royalty percentage.
    Because of the high risk of developing a vaccine against
    this disease we use a discount factor of 25%.
    In all, this leads to a total valuation of the PER.C6 technology
    of € 514 million.
    11.4.2. Valuating STAR
    As we mentioned before, STAR has an enormous potential for
    Crucell if it can be applied in the protein market. We believe
    this market will grow to be over USD 50 billion within a few
    years. Already now the total market for recombinant proteins
    is worth around USD 35-40 billion. At this moment STAR is
    evaluated by Genentech. To be on the safe side we give it a
    50% that STAR is successfully evaluated and can be used to
    produce more proteins efficiently. We also take into account
    the issue of bioequivalence which is vital for a quick roll out
    of the model and the revenue stream coming from royalties on
    STAR. We believe Crucell is able to get royalties on STAR for
    at least a quarter of the proteins marketed. Bottom line
    Crucell can get 2-3% on proteins sold. We use a discount factor
    of 25%.
    Next to this we estimate the company will start issuing more
    licenses on STAR for an average price of USD 1.5-2 million
    for a non exclusive license. We think STAR licenses will be
    priced considerably higher than the PER.C6 licenses because
    of its ability not only to produce recombinant proteins more
    efficiently on PER.C6, but also on other cell lines like CHO.
    Considering this, we estimate the STAR technology to have a
    current value of € 300 million.
    11.4.3 Valuating the Vaccine portfolio
    In valuating the vaccine portfolio of Crucell, we look at the
    vaccines the company has in development for Ebola, in
  2. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 10:52
    11.4.3 Valuating the Vaccine portfolio
    In valuating the vaccine portfolio of Crucell, we look at the
    vaccines the company has in development for Ebola, influenza,
    West Nile virus and malaria. When looking at market size,
    the influenza vaccine is the most important one. Apart from
    the vaccine against West Nile virus we estimate that all development
    costs are paid for by the partners. For influenza this
    is Sanofi Aventis, for Ebola the US government is financing
    the development and also for malaria we think the costs will
    be financed by Crucell’s partners (Glaxo SmithKline, Walter
    Reid Army Institute and the New York University. This reduces
    the risk of Crucell portfolio considerably. Looking at the
    total portfolio we estimate the ebola vaccine to be first on the
    market, partly because of the two-animal rule under the
    Bioshield program of the US government.
    We estimate the total market for Ebola to be USD 75-100 million
    as the market is only restricted to the US Army. The vaccine
    is scheduled to enter into Phase I within a few months.
    We estimate the ebola vaccine can be on the market in the
    second half of 2007. Taking into a discount factor of 15% we
    value the Ebola vaccine to be worth € 68 million.
    The total market for influenza vaccines is worth around
    USD 1.5 billion. Crucell’s partner Sanofi Aventis is the biggest
    player with a market share of 40%. This market will continue
    to grow as is mentioned before due to aging population and
    other factors. Also this vaccine will be entering the clinic
    within the next few months. The financing Sanofi Aventis and
    Crucell received from the US government can speed up the
    development of the vaccine considerably. We estimate the
    influenza vaccine to be on the market beginning of 2009.
    Next to this vaccine, a vaccine for pandemic flu will be developed
    which we think will be on the market half a year later.
    Crucell has the rights for the Japanese market, which we
    believe has a size of USD 400 million. Crucell together with a
    Van Leeuwenhoeck Research 31
    VALUATION
    specific partner is estimated to have a market share of 25-
    30%. For the influenza vaccine and the pandemic vaccine we
    belief Crucell will receive a royalty of 10%. Considering a
    discount factor of 15% we value the influenza vaccine to be
    currently worth € 352 million.
    For the West Nile Virus the estimated market size is USD 400
    million. In this market to be the first to have a vaccine on the
    market will be vital. Considering the fact that competitor
    Acambis is preparing for Phase II, we do not think at this time
    that Crucell will be the first. That is why we estimate a peak
    market share of 25-30%. We expect Crucell to enter the clinic
    beginning of next year. We estimate the vaccine to be on
    the market in 2010. We consider a discount factor of 20%
    which is higher than the discount factor used with the influenza
    vaccine and the ebola vaccine. Reasons are that we
    expect this vaccine to be later on the market and Crucell does
    not have a partner yet for the further development. This
    means that the risk of failure is higher. We estimate the valuation
    of this vaccine currently at € 15 million.
    The other vaccine which will be in the clinic next year will be
    the vaccine against malaria. Crucell is already working together
    with strong partners and we expect an agreement with
    GlaxoSmithKline shortly. The travellers market for a malaria
    vaccine is estimated to be around USD 200 million. The market
    will be much bigger if a malaria vaccine can be used in
    developing countries. This market, where the vaccine would
    be financed by governmental organisations like the WHO,
    would be worth around USD 1 billion. We expect a malaria
    vaccine to be on the market in 2011 for the travellers market
    and later for the developing countries. With a partner like
    GSK, a market share of 30-40% would be possible. In this
    case, Crucell should receive a royalty percentage into the double
    digits. Considering a discount factor of 20%, we value this
    vaccine to be currently worth € 78 million.
    11.4.4. Valuating Blood Factors and EPO
    Although Crucell has not yet officially announced the broadening
    of their avtitivities to blood factors, we expect the
    announcement in the short term as the company is looking for
    these markets for a longer period. Especially in developing the
    possibility to produce a new version of EPO. The market for
    bloodfactors is a multi billion dollar market. Making blood
    products on PER.C6 reduces the risk for these kind of products.
    Although we estimate that the products could not be on
    the market before 2009, we think the company will already
    start clinical trials next year. Also the EPO market is an enormous
    market with big possibilities for Crucell. In the case of
    an agreement with a partner in this field we calculate a double
    digit royalty percentage and a possible market share for
    blood factors of 25% and for EPO of 5-10%. We make use of
    a discount factor of 20%. This leads to a valuation of € 132
    million.
    The total current valuation of Crucell using our valuation
    model amounts to € 1,459 million, which makes the company
    undervalued compared to the current share price.

    sammie
  3. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 11:30
    Aanbevolen, ondanks mijn bedenkingen tegen de expertise van heer Wijma.

    Met zijn waardering voor het totaal komt dit neer op zo'n € 36 per aandeel.
  4. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 11:45
    quote:

    Alaskan Timber schreef:

    Hej Sammie,

    Wat vind jij van de huidige TA?
    Ik deel de mening van Jan1h,echter ik kom tot andere targets nl 24.6 en 31.6

    sammie
  5. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 12:00
    Hi guys,

    Net even door het raport gelezen en volgens mij staat er niet verschrikkelijk veel nieuws in. Mogelijk heeft Wijma een paar draadjes uit dit forum gebruikt als basis. Hetgeen natuurlijk geen slecht idee is. Waarom alles opnieuw uitvinden?

    Mijn indruk is dat het een gedegen rapport is dat ook goed de zwakke kanten van Crucell laat zien (die hoor je hier niet zo vaak). Ik heb ook sterk de indruk dat Wijma op de koffie is geweest bij Crucell en met meerdere mensen uit de board heeft gelunched.

    Vooral zijn waardering van het aandeel spreekt me zeer aan. Een biotech bedrijf kun je nou een keer niet vergelijken met AHOLD.

    Eindelijk eens een objectief, uitgebreid en onderbouwd verhaal met een goede SWOT-analyse. Aanbevolen leesvoer voor geïnteresserden in Crucell, zonder al te veel achtergrondinfo. Je bent in 1 keer up to date!

    Groeten, :)

    Frank
  6. Hans Igor 30 september 2005 12:01
    1459 miljoen gedeeld door 36,38 miljoen aandelen levert bij mij de som op van veertig )40 euro per aandeel.
    Schappelijk prijsje, dacht ik zo.
  7. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 12:02
    quote:

    Hans Igor schreef:

    1459 miljoen gedeeld door 36,38 miljoen aandelen levert bij mij de som op van veertig )40 euro per aandeel.
    Schappelijk prijsje, dacht ik zo.
    Voor dit moment wel, Hans.

    Groeten :) Frank
  8. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 12:22
    quote:

    Hans Igor schreef:

    1459 miljoen gedeeld door 36,38 miljoen aandelen levert bij mij de som op van veertig )40 euro per aandeel.
    Schappelijk prijsje, dacht ik zo.
    Hans,je vergeet de laatse plaatsing van 4 mln aandelen
    dus totaal is nu iets meer dan 40 mln uitstaande aandelen

    sammie
  9. Hans Igor 30 september 2005 12:29
    quote:

    wilb52 schreef:

    [quote=Hans Igor]
    1459 miljoen gedeeld door 36,38 miljoen aandelen levert bij mij de som op van veertig )40 euro per aandeel.
    Schappelijk prijsje, dacht ik zo.
    [/quote]

    Hans,je vergeet de laatse plaatsing van 4 mln aandelen
    dus totaal is nu iets meer dan 40 mln uitstaande aandelen

    sammie
    Ik haal het aantal uit het overzicht van Binck
    (als ik lieg, lieg ik in commissie)
  10. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 12:59
    quote:

    Hans Igor schreef:

    [quote=wilb52]
    [quote=Hans Igor]
    1459 miljoen gedeeld door 36,38 miljoen aandelen levert bij mij de som op van veertig )40 euro per aandeel.
    Schappelijk prijsje, dacht ik zo.
    [/quote]

    Hans,je vergeet de laatse plaatsing van 4 mln aandelen
    dus totaal is nu iets meer dan 40 mln uitstaande aandelen

    sammie
    [/quote]
    Ik haal het aantal uit het overzicht van Binck
    (als ik lieg, lieg ik in commissie)
    Op 31-12-2004 waren 36.873.421 40.873.421 shares outstanding
    Op ca 24 januari zijn er 400.000 ge-exercised
    Op 10-5-2005 zijn er 3.6 mln uitgegeven tegen 14.50

    DYODD (:->D)

    sammie

    totaal nu dus
  11. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 13:14
    Ik heb vanmorgen de ochtend besteed aan het doorlezen van het rapport van Wijma.

    Net als een eerdere poster vind ik het een heel objectief rapport. Niets wordt mooier voor gedaan dan het is. En er wordt terdege rekening gehouden met de risico's die er zijn. Ook is het goed te weten hoever de "concurrentie" is. En waar de voetangels liggen.

    Desalniettemin vind Wijma het aandeel ondergewaardeerd. Dit belooft dus nog wat.......

    Kortom... eindelijk eens een visie van een analist die zich echt in de materie heeft verdiept. Mijn complimenten......

    Babs

  12. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 23:19
    Also in the next few months we expect important news flow
    from the company.
    Most important one is of course the start of the clinical Phase
    I tests for the influenza vaccine as well as for the Ebola vaccine.
    For the development of a vaccine against malaria we think the
    company will soon announce a partner for the further development.
    It could be in the same order as the partnership
    Crucell has with Sanofi Pasteur in the development of the
    influenza vaccine.
    Next to this Genentech is expected to finalize its evaluation of
    the STAR technology. In case of a positive evaluation we think
    this could be a important driver for the shares. It also paves
    the way for more license agreements on STAR with other big
    biotech and pharmaceutical companies.
    Furthermore more licensedeals can be expected on PER.C6 as
    well as more news on the activities the company is to start in
    the market for blood products (blood factors and EPO).
    All in all, more the ample opportunity for the company to
    grow and to see even higher trade volumes in the shares.
  13. [verwijderd] 2 oktober 2005 21:35
    ''Also in the next few months we expect important news flow
    from the company''.

    Dat verwachten we met zijn allen al enige tijd. Zelfs komende week mag het van mij weer feest zijn.
    Mijn fascinatie voor de koersontwikkeling van Crucell begint bijna pathologische vormen aan te nemen. Een weekend zonder geeft onthoudingsverschijnselen, waarbij het afspeuren van de fora toch de minste is.
    Tegelijkertijd vind ik op pubmed nu geen relevante artikelen waar ik me op kan storten. Het Wijma rapport helpt me door het weekend heen.

    Daarnaast heb ik wat aandelen GeneMax gekocht, licentiehouder van een per.c6 licentie en bijna failliet. Er ligt gelukkig geen logisch verband en ik gok op de revival van GeneMax, met nadruk : gok!

    Koers eind van deze week? 24,82 mischien 24, 83 daar wil ik af zijn.

    Morgen weer 'vrij in beweging' en verder,

    Goede Crucell week toegewenst,
    Soldaat.

  14. Mr Greenspan 2 oktober 2005 23:22
    Ik heb toch zo mijn bedenkingen bij het rapport van Wijma (vergelijk het voor de grap eens met het wel beroemde en alom gerespecteerde 'Dagobert Duck scenario').
    Zo wordt het gehele influenza project (dus zowel het gewone als het pandemische als het commerciele recht van Crucell voor Japan) in totaal op een verdisconteerde waarde van 352 miljoen geschat. Brus gaf al aan dat (gezien de verwachte verdubbeling van deze markt van 1.5 naar 3 miljard in 2010) de deal met Sanofi ALLEEN al meer als 100 miljoen winst PER JAAR op kon leveren. Dan hebben we het niet eens over het pandemische vaccin en de markt van Japan (die volgens ingewijden ongeveer net zoveel winst oplevert als de deal met Sanofi).

    Het West Nijl vaccin waar een markt van 400 miljoen per jaar voor is, is volgens Wijma maar 15 miljoen waard (hoe kan dat nou?). OK de concurrentie heeft een voorsprong maar als Crucell met een vaccin komt moet er toch wel tientallen miljoenen per jaar mee te verdienen zijn?
    Ik snap er echt geen bal van hoe die waardering zo laag kan zijn.
  15. [verwijderd] 3 oktober 2005 00:59
    quote:

    Mr Greenspan schreef:

    Het West Nijl vaccin waar een markt van 400 miljoen per jaar voor is, is volgens Wijma maar 15 miljoen waard (hoe kan dat nou?). OK de concurrentie heeft een voorsprong maar als Crucell met een vaccin komt moet er toch wel tientallen miljoenen per jaar mee te verdienen zijn?
    Ik snap er echt geen bal van hoe die waardering zo laag kan zijn.

    Misschien omdat de markt toch kleiner blijkt te zijn? Niet mijn mening maar de mening van wetenschappers in mijn omgeving.

    Groet, Babs

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