Toekomstbeeld schreef op 7 juni 2017 11:43:
Ik heb dit nog niet eerder gepubliceerd (vanwege de lengte en complexiteit) maar gezien de onwetendheid van MvM, en daarmee de verwarring welke hij creëert, hierbij met behulp van 4 vragen de kwestie van IO prijzen.
Realtime data is gewoon niet FOR FREE beschikbaar. Future info wel.Future prijzen leiden uiteindelijk de spotprijzen. Gaan de futures hogere (dus prijzenpunten voor toekomstige leveringen) dan kunnen de spotprices (actuele dagprijzen) van vandaag of morgen best nog lager gaan maar als de futures blijven stijgen dan komen de reële prijzen er een keer achteraan.
Dat is de enige gedachte die eigenlijk (naar min bescheiden mening) van belang is.
Alle andere dingen zijn ruis. Zoals de diverse links die afgeleid zijn van andere links. Zoals de diverse organisaties die allemaal hun eigen indices proberen te onderhouden. De markt van data verschaffing is een commerciële wereld en veel partijen proberen een graantje mee te pakken.
P.s.:
Overigens zijn veel actuele prijzen gewoon simpelweg niet bekend. Als AM een prijs afspraak maakt met Cliffs of VALE over IO leveringen dan kent niemand die. Die staan in een contract dat echt niet openbaar gemaakt wordt. Ze zullen wel gek zijn. Neem aan dat iedereen hier dat begrijpt.
Why is the price of iron ore so hard to find? Iron ore isn’t traded like other commodities.
Benchmark indices collect data every day from industry sources and calculate a "spot price" according to their methodology. As transactions between buyers and sellers can be conducted in closed-door negotiations using different currencies and ore grades, transparency and accuracy can be an issue. A hefty fee is also charged for access to the end-of-day data.
As a proxy, most online stockbrokers and charting programs (including Market Index) use the NYMEX Futures price.
How is the spot price set? The price of iron ore is normally quoted from two sources:
1. A Benchmark Index
The price is usually set once daily by several major benchmarking companies. The spot price varies between sources as they use different methodologies and grades.
Transparency is a potential issue as contract negotiations can take place behind closed doors.2. Futures market
Trading can occur almost 24 hours a day and all transactions are transparent.
Market Index uses the online broker standard; end-of-day, NYMEX traded 62% Fe, CFR China in $US/metric tonne.
Why does the spot price differ between data sources? Benchmark indices have different calculation methodologies and are updated at different times.
Although they’re strongly correlated and move in unison, it’s not unusual to see a difference of 4-5% in the price.
For example, on 22 March 2016 (10am AEDT):
IRESS: $56.50
Metal Bulletin: $58.82
CME Group Futures: $55.74
Pricing can even differ when using the same data feed. For example:
Market Index, Commsec and NABTrade all use the same data feed (NYMEX Futures) but there’s two significant differences:
1) Date of data
NAB Trade and Market Index use the most recent trading day’s close. Commsec’s iron ore data is 2 days behind (i.e. two closes ago).
2) Contract Roll Over
In futures trading, there’s a date where traders switch from using the current month’s contract (i.e. data feed) to the next month’s contract. This is called the “roll over” date.
Commsec and NABTrade don’t rollover to the next month’s contract until expiry (end of the month). This can cause significant volatility near expiry.
Market Index follows conventional rollover dates to prevent large jumps in price near contract expiry. I.e. We start quoting the following month’s Futures Contract about a week prior to the end of the month.
Which benchmark should I follow? There are five iron ore benchmarks regularly quoted in the media as the “official” price.
1. Metal Bulletin
The MBIOI-62 index is 62% Fe CFR Tianjin Port (China). It’s used by Bloomberg, most newspapers, and updates at 6:30pm (Singapore).
2. Platts
The IODEX is 62% Fe CFR China and updates at 5:30pm (Singapore).
3. The Steel Index (TSI) - owned by Platts
Uses 62% Fe CFR China and updates at 6:30pm (Singapore).
4. IRESS
Uses 61.5% Fe CFR Australia, China Port Spot. It’s used by most Australian full-service stockbrokers under code “ironore.id”.
5. CME Group Futures
The 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures traded on the NYMEX. It’s used by Commsec, NABTrade and most online stockbrokers/charting platforms.
Metal Bulletin's MBIOI-62 is probably the most quoted benchmark in media.
CME Group Futures are the most transparent, accessible and regularly updated price feed, so it's used by most online trading platforms.