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Mooi instap moment Dendreon

1. [verwijderd] 5 april 2007 21:28

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   quote:

   rac69 schreef:

   psycho heb je nog een paar looser tips
   

   Waarde lams-rac69 (het lijkt me duidelijk, wat die lammetjes aan het doen waren toen ze gezamelijk geschoten werden).
   Ik kies vrijwel altijd biotech, waar ik me vanwege orginaliteit en uniciteit aan kan verbinden (soms/zelden doe ik gewoon een gok) zie ASTM, BIOM, ENTREMED, XOMA, INSM, Crucell.
   Momenteel krabbelt HIV (Calypte)weer op. (zie HIV, waarom lager?)
   Ik heb daar 100K van. Puur vanuit FA en intuitie vind ik dat een van de aandelen van 2007.
   Maar garantie tot de voordeur.
   Sympathiek aandeel, kost geen dr*l.
   
   Psycho
2. [verwijderd] 5 april 2007 22:02

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   18.05
   
   ++ 19,69% ($2,97)
   
   60.000.000 aandelen
   
   P.
3. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 11:00

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   Weekend leesvoer:
   biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070404/314...
   
   SeekingAlpha
   Dendreon Corporation: The Next Biotech Winner
   Wednesday April 4, 1:51 pm ET
   
   Hillel Shakked submits: Many have noticed Friday's remarkable price movement in Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqGM: DNDN) and are wondering what the upside from here is. In the report below, I will run a back-of-an-envelope analysis for DNDN's current evaluation and will discuss its longer term potential.
   
   Let me start with a basic valuation model:
   
   Leading therapeutic vaccine candidate, Provenge, is currently being evaluated by the FDA for AIPC (androgen-independent prostate cancer), the terminal stage of the disease also known as hormone-independent prostate cancer [HRPC]. Patients diagnosed with AIPC typically have a 16 to 18 month life expectancy.
   Market size: ~150,000 current prevalence, with 50,000 newly diagnosed patients every year (US only)
   Treatment cost: est. $15,000-$20,000 per infusion - 3 infusions are needed for the treatment, administered two weeks apart; cost not specified yet
   Competition: Taxotere, a very strong chemotherapy drug, is the only drug approved by the FDA for AIPC that has a proven survival benefit. Over 50% of asymptomatic (without bone pain) AIPC patients prefer NOT to use Taxotere due to its relatively severe side effects. Note that in its pivotal clinical trial, Taxotere showed a median survival [MS] benefit of 3.2 months in the asymptomatic subgroup (in comparison to Provenge's 4.5 month MS benefit).
   Market potential – I'll be conservative to assume 65% penetration rate and a cost of $45,000 per patient (in line with the modern cancer biologics - Avastin, Herceptin, Erbitux etc). Which doctor will not recommend that his patient try a drug that has a markedly less severe side effect profile than Taxotere and that has shown a greater MS benefit in both of its Phase 3 trials? As evidenced by the prostate cancer patient advocacy groups at the March 29 Cellular, Tissue, & Gene Therapy Advisory Committee as well as by physicians interviewed on every media outlet in the recent days, the demand for Provenge seems to be very high right off the bat, so assuming a 65% penetration rate 3 years after approval could be a fair assumption here.
   Peak revenues (US market): 65% x 50,000 * $45,000 = $1.462 billion
   
   Discount the peak revenue by 12.5% per year for 3 years and one arrives at $1.0 billion.
   
   Biotechs with promising pipelines typically trade at 7 to 20 price/sales, so by taking the low end of the above range we can conservatively assume that after Provenge's approval, the price per share of Dendreon will eventually reflect a market cap of at least $7 billion.
   
   DNDN has 82 million shares outstanding, ~$100 million in cash as of 3/31, and can sell up to $200 million worth of its common stock on its current shelf. Assuming another dilution round (possibly as part of a RoW partnership deal), another 10-15 million shares could then be added to the float for a total of around 100 million shares.
   
   Hence, a price per share of $70 within several months post approval is not out of the question.
   
   Based on its current price per share of around $13, one could easily argue that DNDN's share price is very undervalued, considering that Provenge is highly likely to be approved by May 15. The FDA usually follows the recommendation of its Advisory Committees, and especially so when the indication is a terminal one and the advisory panel has recommended that the therapy is both safe and substantially effective. Thursday’s CTGTAC voted 17 to 0 that Provenge was safe and 13 to 4 that it showed substantial evidence of efficacy.
   
   The efficacy vote came with a great deal of excitement because the efficacy question, as originally written in the FDA's briefing documents, was unusually stringent and did not follow FDA guidelines. The question originally worded by the FDA was “Did the treatment establish efficacy?” When the term “establish” was interpreted and vocalized by the first three advisory panel members to mean “100% conclusiveness,” the committee chairman, Dr. James Mule, halted the voting and asked the FDA attendees if the question was worded properly, noting that “substantial efficacy” is the language in the FDA’s own guidelines for drug approvals. The two high-ranking FDA officials attending the meeting agreed with Dr. Mule and corrected the overly stringent terminology. The revised question was re-asked, “Does the product demonstrate substantial evidence of efficacy?” The first three panel members immediately reversed their votes, and the final panel vote on efficacy was 13 Yes and 4 No.
   
   More to Follow
   
   The price per share calculation above was based only on revenues in the US market. Provenge sales from the rest of the world [ROW] could eventually match US revenues. DNDN has stated that it would like to partner Provenge with a larger biopharma company. Signing a lucrative ROW partnership agreement with a healthy upfront payment and sales milestones, in addition to 20-25% royalties is certainly conceivable post-US approval. Hence, another 25% pop in the pps can be expected when a ROW is announced.
   
   ADPC (androgen-dependent prostate cancer) indication: The market size of this earlier stage of advanced prostate cancer comprising patients who are still responding to androgen blockers is estimated at two to three times larger than the AIPC market. In mid-2005, Dendreon completed enrollment in a Phase 3 clinical trial that randomized patients to the treatment arm of Provenge plus Lupron or to the control arm of Lupron plus sham Provenge (saline solution). Final data is still years away, but initial results from the earliest enrolled patients have so far shown that Provenge appears to be delaying the rise in PSA from the 0.0 level to the 3.0 level.
   
   Neuvenge, etc: Dendreon was forced to suspend its follow-on immunotherapy drug, Neuvenge, for breast and ovarian cancer patients who are HER2/Neu positive, in order to conserve its cash. The relentless short selling of DNDN shares blocked the ability of the company to raise enough money without significant dilution. The Neuvenge Phase 2 results showed excellent promise, so it is hoped that this program can be restarted shortly after approval, three years after its suspension.
   
   21st Century Medicine
   
   By approving Provenge (PDUFA date is May 15), the FDA jumpstarts cancer therapy into the 21st Century—this is a personalized treatment called autologous immunotherapy—using the patient’s own cells and it is based on Dendreon's patented Antigen Delivery Cassette platform. It is important to note that Dendreon holds numerous patents, as well as exclusive and nonexclusive licenses to use over 20 other antigens for future therapeutic vaccine development. In other words, once DNDN scientists find the most appropriate antigen target expressed in any type of cancer, the same procedure used in administering Provenge immunotherapy can be applied.
   
   
4. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 11:01

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   Deel II
   
   What are the odds of approval? Based on the Advisory Committee [AC] vote of 13 to 4, the odds seem to be quite high. Moreover, surveying the outcomes of the recent FDA Advisory Committees, the FDA has approved 37 of the last 38 treatments following a positive recommendation from an Advisory Committee. The current FDA commissioner is a urological oncologist and prostate cancer survivor whose father passed away from AIPC, who has publicly stated more than once that FDA will serve as a “bridge” to new cancer therapy and not an obstacle, and has gone on record as saying that cancer can be conquered by 2015. If he were to reject this innovative therapy after such a strong positive AC vote and after such passionate and emotional appeals from prostate cancer patients and advocacy groups, his words will ring hollow. What cancer patients are asking is that they have a choice; that they make the final decision about their therapy and that a 1 in 40 chance that the statistically significant survival benefit seen in Provenge’s pivotal 9901 trial was a false positive (as stated in the FDA biostatistical briefing document) does not bother them, especially when the treatment has such a mild side effect profile.
   
   It may very well be that the CBER division of the FDA (biologics) has decided to move forward into the 21st Century, leaving the CDER division (drugs) in the dust and rendering its 1960s-1970s mentality of preferring 800 to 1,000-patient cancer trials featuring toxic chemo regimens obsolete. CDER's "vision" of extending survival by two or three more months but making the participants feel miserable (or killing or hospitalizing them) is 20th Century thought, not 21st.
   
   Dendreon is weeks away from pioneering the "21st century medicine" and based on their robust technology, they could very well turn into the next Amgen (NasdaqGS: AMGN) and Genentech (NYSE: DNA - News).
   
   Disclosure: Author has a long position in Dendreon
   
   Psycho
5. aossa 6 april 2007 11:12

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   quote:

   psycho-pharma schreef:

   60.000.000 aandelen

   Of 75% van het totaal geregistreerd aantal aandelen.
   
   Waar blijven ze de stukjes voor de handel vandaan halen ?
6. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 11:46

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   quote:

   aossa schreef:

   [quote=psycho-pharma]60.000.000 aandelen [/quote]
   Of 75% van het totaal geregistreerd aantal aandelen.
   
   Waar blijven ze de stukjes voor de handel vandaan halen ?
   

   With a 32% short interest ( aprox. 24 milj. shares) and only 6-Millions shares covered per www.shortsqueeze.com
   Daarbij is het vermoeden, dat er nog 15 milj. naked shorts rondlopen.
   Zo kan je dus op afgelopen vrijdag op 92.000.000 verhandelde aandelen uitkomen.
   
   Psycho
   
7. aossa 6 april 2007 12:10

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   quote:

   psycho-pharma schreef:

   [quote=aossa]
   [quote=psycho-pharma]60.000.000 aandelen [/quote]
   Of 75% van het totaal geregistreerd aantal aandelen.
   
   Waar blijven ze de stukjes voor de handel vandaan halen ?
   [/quote]
   
   With a 32% short interest ( aprox. 24 milj. shares) and only 6-Millions shares covered per www.shortsqueeze.com
   Daarbij is het vermoeden, dat er nog 15 milj. naked shorts rondlopen.
   Zo kan je dus op afgelopen vrijdag op 92.000.000 verhandelde aandelen uitkomen.
   

   Jamaar, niet alleen afgelopen vrijdag, ook de ganse week ! Eens gecoverd zou je toch denken dat de handel afneemt of blijft die junk-handel voortduren, hoe kan dat en hoelang nog ?
8. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 12:26

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   Volgens mij houden de meeste aandeelhouders de stukken (long) vast.
   Hierdoor bestaat de omzet voornamelijk uit dezelfde stukken die per dag misschien wel 5 keer worden verkocht en gekocht. Dit is dan ee klein aantal aandelen. Aangezien een ieder pas wil verkopen bij winst en er steeds kopers blijken te zijn die denken toch weer iets hoger te kunnen verkopen blijft het aandeel stijgen.
   Een opwaarts spiraal.
9. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 16:13

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   Wat zijn wij toch aardig voor elkaar vergeleken met de Yahoo-board-soap:
   
   Re: Big Trouble Next week (Not rated) 48 minutes ago
   go ahead you piece of chit use whatever tactic you can. You are going to loose and for you I hope you get and die a miserable death due to cancer you fuking piece of chit!!!!
   
   P.
   
10. wiegveld 6 april 2007 16:15

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    zie ookmijn posting op de Cell Genesys draad over de vergelijking CellGenesys-Dendreon.
    
    
12. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 18:01

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    quote:

    psycho-pharma schreef:

    18.05
    
    ++ 19,69% ($2,97)
    
    60.000.000 aandelen
    
    P.
    

    Hier psycho, ga naar onderstaande link en tik bij Submit DNDN in, je zult nog gelukkiger worden!! hahahahahaha!
    
    www.stock100.com/
    
    Groet
13. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 18:40

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    Dank je Knut!
    Als ik somber ben over mijn aandelen, kijk ik altijd op die website.
    Ze hebben bijna nooit gelijk, maar je dag is wel weer goed.
    Maar ik vind deze keer wel, dat ze met $35,- in de komende 3 dagen wat aan de conservatieve kant zijn (-).
    
    Psycho
    Campari, orginele Havanna, Haust toastje met Beluga
14. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 18:47

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    quote:

    psycho-pharma schreef:

    Dank je Knut!
    Als ik somber ben over mijn aandelen, kijk ik altijd op die website.
    Ze hebben bijna nooit gelijk, maar je dag is wel weer goed.
    Maar ik vind deze keer wel, dat ze met $35,- in de komende 3 dagen wat aan de conservatieve kant zijn (-).
    
    Psycho
    Campari, orginele Havanna, Haust toastje met Beluga
    

    Ben uit curiositeit ook eens gaan loeren voor GTCb,
    en ja hoor, mijn dag kan ook niet meer stuk,
    mede verantwoordelijk het goede weer !!
    -):O
    
    ff genieten van een donkere Leffe !!
    Suc6
    
    
15. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 18:59

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    hahahahaha! ik bekijk 'm ook regelmatig en het is vaak genieten! maar nu eerst een roseetje, even genieten van de afgelopen beursweek! Heeren, fijne paasdagen!
    
    Groet, der Eisbear
16. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 19:05

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    Investors who bet against Dendreon now backpedaling
    By LUKE TIMMERMAN
    BLOOMBERG NEWS
    
    Dendreon Corp.'s shares rose 20 percent Thursday to their highest point in more than six years, after investors made up for betting against the company's experimental drug for prostate cancer.
    
    Shares of the Seattle-based company rose $2.97 to $18.05 in Nasdaq stock market composite trading. The stock has more than tripled since March 29 when advisers to U.S. regulators recommended its drug Provenge for the market.
    
    The positive vote took many investors by surprise, and those who had bet Dendreon would fail were buying back the shares to minimize losses, an analyst said. About 26 million shares were held in a short position before the meeting, more than twice the number in December, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
    
    People who sell short try to profit by borrowing stock and rebuying the securities later at a lower price to return to the holder.
    
    "This stock was overshorted, so as the stock goes up, people are running for the exits," said David Miller, president of Biotech Stock Research, an independent equity research firm in Seattle. He owns shares in Dendreon.
    
    Provenge would be the company's first approved drug and could generate $1 billion a year in U.S. sales, analysts say. The medicine, designed to train the body's immune system to fight prostate cancer as if it were a virus, would provide a new option for a disease that kills 27,000 men a year in the U.S. An advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration said March 29 that Provenge is safe and "substantially effective."
    
    Dendreon Chief Executive Officer Mitchell Gold sold about 202,000 shares in the company Monday, almost 20 percent of his personal holdings of Dendreon stock and options, Dendreon spokeswoman Monique Greer said in a telephone interview.
    
    The sales were at about $13.46 a share, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That's more than double the price from a week earlier, before the FDA panel's positive recommendation.
    
    "Can this stock break any more rules?" Miller said in an interview. "The FDA briefing documents come out before the panel, and the stock goes up. Now the CEO sells the stock, and it goes up."
    
    This is the first time Gold has sold shares in the company, Greer said.
    
    "It's a personal decision, and to diversify his portfolio," Greer said.
    
    Groet.
17. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 19:10

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    Hence, a price per share of $70 within several months post approval is not out of the question.
    
    Dit is toch wel het mooiste zinnetje wat ik over DNDN heb gelezen!
    biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070404/314...
    
    Als dat eens waar mocht zijn...
    Zelf met $ 30 neem ik al genoegen
    
    :-)
18. [verwijderd] 6 april 2007 21:24

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    dndn is voor mij goud.
    ben op 4,90 ingestapt en heb de gok genomen ben bijna met alles wat ik had er in gegaan en leef de laatste week op een roze wolk,en volgens mij is het nog lang niet voorbij als je gister zag hoe het ging dan zit er nog veel meer in het vat.
19. [verwijderd] 7 april 2007 01:11

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    www.fda-news.com/-fda-approvals-dendr...
20. [verwijderd] 7 april 2007 09:16

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    Prettige Paasdagen aan allen van het forum!!
    
    Voordat ik mijn vrouw wakker maak, heb ik een mooi lang-weekend leesstuk gevonden.
    Het is ietwat pumperig, maar een goede verhandeling over de invloed van de shorts op de komende pps ontwikkeling.
    
    Bottumline: verdedig je aandelen met behulp van alles wat je hebt!!!!!
    
    By: skcotswonki (op Yahoo)
    
    The light bulb went off in someone's head on Wall Street on Thursday...
    Someone on Wall Street took a careful look at DNDN on Thursday morning, and like the ship captain in the Poseidon Adventure they looked out and saw the coming tsunami and said "OH MY GOD, turn on those buy programs now, TURN THEM ON!"
    
    Some of the shorts will go bankrupt and will be out of business before this is over.
    
    Stocks are not supposed to do what DNDN did on Thursday, ever. The jump last Friday and the 92 million share day were predictable if Provenge received a strong endorsement from the advisory committee, which it did. Stocks that jump on news are supposed to see their volume decline about in half each of the next several trading days as the story runs out of legs and normal trading resumes. Volume in DNDN fell to 13 million shares on Wednesday. This is exactly what DNDN was doing until about one hour into trading on Thursday, then someone on Wall Street hit the panic buy button.
    
    DNDN went on to trade 60 million shares on Thursday and climb almost 20% on no new news, no analyst upgrades, no events at all that should have caused the stock to trade more than 10 million shares on a get out of town day before the three day weekend.
    
    Now, why has it taken a week for what is about to happen to soak in to someone' mind with access to the buy button on Wall Street? First, and remember this, this has never happened before in this way in the history of Wall Street. You have never had such a leveraged bet to the downside that was so incredibly stupid and wrong going into an event that has almost unlimited upside without the shorts, a chance to own some of the only 82 million shares in the world of the company with the biggest breakthrough in cancer since surgery and radiation. Second, and equally important, you have never had such corrupt and lopsided and wrong analysis passed off as research since probably the late 1920's. Hence, there is not a single research report someone on Wall Street can pick up and read and say WOW, Provenge is a $2 billion plus drug and DNDN is worth 5 to 20 times that $2 billion figure, discounted back for risk and time. That discounted value is triple digits in and of itself. The analysts were still out screaming in the press on Friday and Monday that the FDA would not approve what their advisory panel just voted overwhelmingly to approve, now that's corrupt.
    
    On Thursday, when the buy button was hit on the buy program, it quickly took out an unprepared line of defense at $15.40. The shorts attempted to regroup at $15.88, $16, $16,72, and $17. All of these lines of defense were quickly over-run and the buying program marched straight to $18. This is where the shorts were able to regroup and throw everything they had to stop the wave. However, the only thing they have left to fight with is MORE NAKED SHORTING. So, at the end of the day, net-net, there may actually have been an increase in the short position because of the three hour and 40 million share fight Thursday afternoon to defend or breakthrough $18.
    
    Now, if you have not fully comprehended what I have just written in setting the stage, then stop here and go back and re-read it before you move on to read about the coming Tsunami and the light bulb that went off in some Wall Street Captains head.
    
    First, this person realized that the ASS (Ashcoff, Shenouda, & Sendek) team of analysts are lying. The FDA will 100% not keep Provenge off the market to run the 9902B study, that's right I said 100%. The only risk to approval by May is the CMC section (which is so far so good), or some excuse like working on the safety plan so that the FDA can approve Provenge subject to a 90 day delay which would really be about finishing enrollment in 9902B by mid summer. I give the odds of approval in May 98% and the odds of approval in 2007 99.98%. This Wall Street Captain knows approval of a billion dollar cancer drug in a now small cap company is only weeks away, maybe only days away.
    
    Second, the stock is so heavily shorted that almost every brokerage firm on Wall Street has a negative imbalance (naked short) position. This means in a couple of days, if the brokerage firm does not come into balance by locating more shares to borrow or by buying back DNDN to close out the imbalance, then the brokerage firm can not sell more stock short without first having the shares borrowed in advance or having a stock certificate in advance. No more sell today and I will come up with my certificate or borrowed shares on Tuesday. It will all be C.O.D. for the short side. Now, it is a mistake to think the naked short position has to be covered next week, it does not. It is just that no new shorting in size can occur until DNDN comes off the Reg SHO list. The shorts have lost CNBC, their analyst henchmen have lost all credibility and will not be quoted with nonsense like no approval in any stories going forward, and it will keep seeping in on Wall Street that approval is in the bag and Provenge is a multi-billion dollar drug. My guess is over 30 million shares were still sold short at the close of business on Thursday.
    
    Now, again, go back and re-read before moving forward if you didn't fully comprehend what was just written. The Provenge story is a triple digit story. Unwinding the short position in DNDN is a second triple digit story on its own.
    
    There is a third independent triple digit story which is exploding now and will keep exploding over the next few weeks. The call options for April and May are going to be exercised en masse. Today, there are over 25 million April and May options to buy DNDN stock at $10 or less. Most of these deep in the money calls will be exercised and not sold and the market makers and call sellers must deliver over 20 million shares to the owners of these calls in the next few weeks. And because of Reg SHO they can not deliver phantom shares. This is no OSTK people, this is the biggest story on Wall Street and all eyes are on it. The SEC knows it and every compliance department knows it on the Street.
    
    The fourth independent triple digit wave that may hit DNDN is all of the other call options that may soon be deep in the money for April and May followed by all of the August call options. There are over 8 million more April and May calls written at $12 1/2 and $15 that are now deep in the money and will be much deeper when this stock rolls into the mid 20's next week. There are over 5 million August calls that are deep in the money now.
    
    DNDN was the second most active stock in the market on no news on Thursday. DNDN was the 6th largest gainer on no new news on Thursday. Some Wall Street Captain chose to hit the panic buy button on Thursday. Everyone on Wall Street will want to figure out just what the guy who hit the panic buy button knows come early Monday morning.
    
    What he knows is economics 101, supply and demand. There is tremendous demand over the next several days and weeks for shares of DNDN and there are not nearly enough shares to satisfy demand. DNDN is right now in the early stages of hits parabolic run, no
21. jip banaan! 8 april 2007 00:05

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    • jip banaan!

      Lid sinds: 10 feb 2005

      Laatste bezoek: 22 feb 2024

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    quote:

    psycho-pharma schreef:

    Dank je Knut!
    Als ik somber ben over mijn aandelen, kijk ik altijd op die website.
    Ze hebben bijna nooit gelijk, maar je dag is wel weer goed.
    Maar ik vind deze keer wel, dat ze met $35,- in de komende 3 dagen wat aan de conservatieve kant zijn (-).
    
    Psycho
    Campari, orginele Havanna, Haust toastje met Beluga
    

    zie het nu pas, maar Spych je doet toch geen Beluga op een Haust toastje? Ben je gek of zo?
    
    greot jip!