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Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac?

223 Posts
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  1. [verwijderd] 22 augustus 2008 21:51
    quote:

    Durfinvest schreef:

    [quote=rac69]
    gaat helemaal los ..zo te zien
    [/quote]goede trade van je...verkoop je ze straks of houden ?
    ben er straks al een keerjte of 2 uitgeweest, telkens lager terug gekocht en nu twijfel ik zwaar moeilijk, moeilijk.gaat nu weer down.
  2. [verwijderd] 22 augustus 2008 22:12
    quote:

    maurice43 schreef:

    [quote=Durfinvest]
    Ze dumpen weer als waanzinnigen nu...fre -12% weer.
    [/quote]

    ze gaan 5% hoger sluiten .....
    FNM +3% _________ FRE -11%
  3. [verwijderd] 22 augustus 2008 22:24
    'Game over voor Fannie en Freddie'


    Volgens de legendarische beursgoeroe Warren Buffett is het spel uit voor de noodlijdende Amerikaanse hypotheekgiganten Freddie Mac en Fannie Mae. De twee groepen hebben in feite geen enkele nettowaarde meer, liet Buffett verstaan tijdens een interview met de Amerikaanse nieuwszender CNBC.

    (tijd) - 'Als onafhankelijke bedrijven is het 'game over' voor Fannie en Freddie,' zegt Buffett. Fannie en Freddie staan in voor de financiering van zowat de helft van de hypotheken in de Verenigde Staten, maar als gevolg van de krediet- en huizencrisis hebben de twee de grootste moeite het hoofd boven water te houden. De Amerikaanse centrale bank, de Federal Reserve, was Fannie en Freddie eerder deze zomer al ter hulp gesneld, maar de markt speculeert nu op een heuse nationalisatie van de twee hypotheekverstrekkers. Die vrees stuurde Fannie en Freddie gisteren tot hun laagste niveau in 20 jaar op Wall Street.
    Volgens Buffett zijn Fannie en Freddie momenteel al de facto genationaliseerd. 'Ze konden geld lenen zonder de normale beperking. Ze kregen een blanco cheque van de Amerikaanse regering.' Failliet zullen de twee hypotheekverzekeraars wel niet gaan, meent Buffett. Daarvoor zijn ze volgens hem gewoon te groot.

    Maar zonder de steun van de Amerikaanse overheid zouden Fannie en Freddie al lang kopje onder zijn gegaan. 'Freddie en Fannie zullen overleven, maar aandeelhouders kunnen wel veel geld verliezen,' waarschuwt Buffett.

    Over de algemene economische situatie is Buffett trouwens niet al te optimistisch. 'De zaken zullen er binnen vijf jaar beter voorstaan, voorspelt hij. Maar niet binnen vijf maanden.'

    Tijdens dezelfde uitzending op CNBC gaf het 'orakel uit Omaha' ook toe zijn belang in de Amerikaanse biegroep Anheuser Busch te vroeg te hebben verkocht aan de Belgisch-Braziliaanse sectorgenoot InBev. Buffett verkocht de aandelen aan 61 tot 62 dollar. Maar niet veel later zou InBev Aneheuser-Busch uiteindelijk binnenrijven voor 70 dollar per aandeel. 'Achteraf gezien, heb ik me vergist,' zegt Buffett daarover, 'maar zoiets gebeurt vaak'.

  4. [verwijderd] 22 augustus 2008 22:25
    quote:

    Durfinvest schreef:

    [quote=maurice43]
    [quote=Durfinvest]
    Ze dumpen weer als waanzinnigen nu...fre -12% weer.
    [/quote]

    ze gaan 5% hoger sluiten .....
    [/quote]FNM +3% _________ FRE -11%
    Maandag even PSUN in de gaten houden durfie,vanavond heb ik er 45 dollarcent uitgesleept,ik verwacht maandag eerst weer down en dan herstel.

    mvrgr jo jo
  5. [verwijderd] 23 augustus 2008 01:02
    US Treasury wants GSEs shareholder-owned -source

    WASHINGTON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department still believes that housing finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) should remain shareholder-owned, a source familiar with Treasury thinking said on Friday.

    www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/i...

  6. [verwijderd] 23 augustus 2008 11:41
    Options Get Options for:




    View By Expiration: Sep 08 | Oct 08 | Jan 09 | Apr 09 | Jan 10
    CALL OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Sep 19, 2008

    Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
    3.00 FREIF.X 0.85 0.15 0.85 0.95 12,163 9,411
    4.00 FREIN.X 0.60 0.00 0.55 0.65 8,828 10,771
    5.00 FREIA.X 0.40 0.00 0.35 0.45 25,302 23,113
    6.00 FREIQ.X 0.30 0.05 0.25 0.30 3,486 18,854
    7.00 FREIR.X 0.20 0.00 0.15 0.20 1,339 16,038
    8.00 FREIS.X 0.10 0.05 0.10 0.15 312 5,822
    9.00 FREIL.X 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.10 170 7,742
    10.00 FREIB.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 1,750 4,115
    11.00 FREIM.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 142 6,594
    12.00 FREIZ.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 10 912
    13.00 FREIJ.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 5 4,751
    14.00 FREIK.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 2 2,040
    15.00 FREIC.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 3 318


    PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Sep 19, 2008

    Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
    3.00 FREUF.X 1.00 0.20 0.95 1.05 9,192 19,579
    4.00 FREUN.X 1.70 0.20 1.65 1.80 4,952 10,559
    5.00 FREUA.X 2.55 0.30 2.50 2.60 1,055 11,495
    6.00 FREUQ.X 3.55 0.35 3.30 3.50 116 4,378
    7.00 FREUR.X 4.25 0.05 4.20 4.40 242 3,104
    8.00 FREUS.X 5.10 0.20 5.20 5.30 424 3,678
    9.00 FREUL.X 6.50 0.50 6.10 6.30 50 1,642
    10.00 FREUB.X 7.10 0.30 6.90 7.30 20 1,453
    11.00 FREUM.X 8.00 0.00 8.00 8.20 40 614
    12.00 FREUZ.X 7.80 0.00 9.00 9.20 0 386
    13.00 FREUJ.X 6.50 0.00 9.80 10.20 0 358
    14.00 FREUK.X 6.90 0.00 10.80 11.20 0 880
    15.00 FREUC.X 10.80 0.00 11.90 12.20 0 58



    Highlighted options are in-the-money.

    Expand to Straddle View...
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    FRE
  7. [verwijderd] 23 augustus 2008 12:06
    quote:

    mickey1399 schreef:

    Moody's bevestigt 'Aaa' rating voor schulden Freddie en Fannie

    Dit is toch positief nieuws voor alle Banken ?

    TRIPLE"A
    Freddie Mac Fannie and Freddie preferred stock ratings cut by Moody's to Baa3 from A1; affirms Aaa senior debt rating
    - BFSR cut to D+ from B-;Preferred stock ratings and BFSRs remain on review for further potential downgrade.
    - Note: back on Aug 11, S&P also affirmed companies' senior unsecured AAA debt rating, and cut preferred stock rating to A- from AA-
    - Moody's notes tha FRE and FNM portofolios are worse than what Moody's expected
  8. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 15:44
    The Final Fate of Fannie and Freddie

    Partial bailout or full-on takeover, here's how the rescue of the troubled government-sponsored enterprises could ripple through the financial system.


    The market's pummeling of Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) eased up a bit on Aug. 21, after four days of selling. But with the stocks both down more than 85% year-to-date, investors appear to believe it's a question of when, not if, the Treasury Dept. will be forced to use its newly acquired powers to bail out the mortgage giants.

    Of course, the authority Congress granted to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to invest in Fannie and Freddie's shares—or make loans to the troubled companies—was supposed to strengthen them. It's had the opposite effect. The stocks are now both trading under 5, a sign that investors believe the companies' common equity will be wiped out in any bailout package.

    But the pain goes deeper. Preferred shares of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) have lost roughly 80% of their value, as Wall Street ponders their fate. Even their subordinated debt, which historically traded at a similar yield to the GSE's senior debt, now trades at historically wide spreads of three to four percentage points above the senior debt. Only senior creditors seem completely assured of getting their money back. But neither Treasury officials nor Fannie and Freddie executives are giving their plans away just yet. "It's kind of [like] radio silence," says one credit trader familiar with the situation.

    Holding the Status Quo
    Of course, some argue that a bailout can wait. As of early August, both Fannie's and Freddie's capital holdings were above their mandatory levels, with Freddie possessing a capital requirement surplus of $2.7 billion and Fannie holding $9.4 billion in additional cash. Credit research outfit CreditSights estimates that Fannie and Freddie could lose $17.3 billion and $8 billion, respectively, before breaching government-mandated capital levels. Meanwhile, both continue to be able to service their debt at a reasonable, if historically high, interest rate about 30 basis points below the London interbank offered rate.

    Paulson is probably just hoping the status quo holds for a while longer. When he argued in favor of Treasury's increased power over Fannie and Freddie in July, Paulson claimed that just having the ability to act would prevent him from needing to. The Bush Administration is hoping to steer clear of another high-profile bailout after the Bear Stearns mess, and if Fannie's and Freddie's capital positions hold up reasonably well, Treasury could wait for the GSEs to burn through their cash before making any moves. The "key players would likely prefer to delay action until after the November elections if possible," Richard Hofmann, an analyst at CreditSights, wrote in a recent research report.

    Treasury, however, may not have the luxury of time. While Fannie was able to raise $7.4 billion during the second quarter, Freddie held off on seeking the $5.5 billion it announced it would raise. With its stock at 3.16 and speculation high that a bailout is inevitable, it may be difficult to coax additional capital into Freddie's coffers, either with common stock or preferred shares. Without the cash, Freddie could breach its mandatory surplus threshold in the third quarter of this year.

    The Olympics of Finance
    And so, the GSE watch has become the financial world's version of the Olympics—no one can take their eyes off it. Part of this is practical, as banks hold enormous amounts of Fannie and Freddie preferred shares and subordinated debt on their balance sheets. If the preferred equity is wiped out, banks will have to take more capital writedowns, adding to their already enormous troubles, says Dory Wiley, CEO of Dallas-based Commerce Street Capital.

    Fannie and Freddie make up about half of the U.S. mortgage market, and with them on the ropes, there's little chance for a housing recovery. Without a housing recovery, the credit markets will continue to be jammed up. And things promise to get worse before they get better. Fannie and Freddie have about $250 billion in debt to refinance in September, and everyone will be watching to see if they're successful. As long as their futures are uncertain, much of the credit market will remain in the doldrums. "They're the pivot point of the whole credit market," says Samson Capital Advisors' Benjamin Thompson.

    Of course, there's one simple solution to the GSE problem: nationalize them, says analyst Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics. He says the Treasury should go ahead and wipe out the common equity, which the market has pretty much done on its own anyway, and promise to make holders of preferred stocks and subordinated debt whole. And financing? If the two mortgage financiers are taken over by the government, notes Whalen, "you don't have to worry about financing."

  9. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 16:29
    Reuters
    Volgens mij kunnen we nu wel eens een paar dagen stijgen op dit nieuws.

    Freddie shares rise after firm demand at bill sale
    Monday August 25, 10:11 am ET

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) were up 5 percent on Monday after solid demand for its $2 billion sale of 3-month and 6-month bills, easing some worries about its ability to raise cash.
    Freddie's stock was last up 15 cents, or 5.3 percent, at $2.96, erasing an earlier loss of 9 percent.

    (Reporting by Richard Leong, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

  10. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 16:29
    By John Spence, MarketWatch
    Last update: 10:01 a.m. EDT Aug. 25, 2008

    However, not everyone is convinced a rescue is right around the corner.
    "The end game for the GSE situation could be quite a long time in coming," wrote Credit Suisse analysts in an investor note.
    "In our view, it is highly unlikely that either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac's capital will fall below critical levels by the end of the third quarter, so a conservatorship/nationalization will likely not occur in the near term," they said. "We believe a capital infusion from the Treasury is possible, but we view it as also unlikely unless losses in the third quarter go far beyond our worst estimates."

    Barclays Capital also warned any GSE bailout could take some time to play out.
    "While imminent action is certainly possible, it is not clear to us that the Treasury is in any rush to act," Barclays analysts said in a report Monday. "Ultimately, it appears as though Treasury action will only be forced if a debt auction freezes up. As long as investors keep buying the debt, the stock price is irrelevant."

    Er is nog hóóóóp.
    Daarom koerst Freddie weer boven de $3,00.

    Dóód of Gladiolen!!!
  11. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 16:34
    quote:

    doemijdiemaar schreef:

    Reuters
    Volgens mij kunnen we nu wel eens een paar dagen stijgen op dit nieuws.

    Freddie shares rise after firm demand at bill sale
    Monday August 25, 10:11 am ET

    Dat zou denk k nog wel tegen kunnen vallen. t gaat om leningen aan n door de overheid gesteund bedrijf. Volgens mij loop je dan ook niet zoveel risico als de overheid gaat nationaliseren en hou je gewoon recht op aflossing van die lening. Das wat anders dan de aandelen die dan vrijwel waardeloos zullen zijn. Zodoende lijkt dit op zich nog geen teken dat men er weer vertrouwen in begint te krijgen
  12. [verwijderd] 25 augustus 2008 18:32
    Toch apart dat alleen maar over FANNIE en FREDDIE gesproken wordt en SALLIE, het derde paard voor de wagen, vergeten wordt.
    Fannie en Freddie voor hypotheken en Sallie voor studentenleningen.

    Sallie (SLM) doet qua koersval niet onder voor haar broer en zus echter biedt waarschijnlijk op de KT wel iets meer toekomstperspectief.
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sallie_Mae

    finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLM#chart...
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