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Koffiekamer -AEX- 25/05 Allez SansRancune

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  1. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 09:36

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    quote:

    SuperBeer29 schreef:

    Europese futs staan opmerkelijk hoger dan de S&P futs, en dit niet omdat de dollar nou zo heftig aan het bewegen is (ze lopen gezamenlijk flink uit de pas!). Bovendien hebben de S&P futs vannacht ook een flinke dip gemaakt, zo tegen de 878!

    Maar nu staan we weer 'schijnheilig' hoger, er zijn weer gare dingen aan de hand.
    Wordt alweer gecorrigeerd, alhoewel het nog steeds gaar was..
  2. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 09:39

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    US Treasury bond market is collapsing right before our eyes. The USD is also tanking at the same time. This is a not a good scenario. Will we see the collapse of the stock market? The answer is Yes. The stock market has reached its top and will be on its way down. Martin Weiss comments :

    A Bond Market Fiasco!
    We warned that :

    - The federal deficit would balloon toward $2 trillion and beyond, flooding the market with Treasury offerings …

    - Washington’s efforts to bail out giant companies would make global bond investors recoil in horror …

    - Treasury bond prices would plunge and interest rates would surge — pure poison to the entire U.S. economy and stock market.

    Now, this has happened too!

    The Third Phase of This Great Crisis Has Kicked in With a Vengeance …
    Just in the past few days …

    Moody’s raised serious doubts about the U.S. government’s credit rating.

    The manager of the world’s largest bond fund predicted that America’s credit rating could be slashed.

    Treasury secretary Geithner warned of the dangers of record-shattering government borrowing.

    And even the Fed, despite all its buying power, was overwhelmed by the avalanche of Treasury bonds being dumped on the market.

    Result: Bond prices crashed. Interest rates surged.

    A Unique Convergence of Events
    If all of these events can tell you anything, it’s that you now have the kind of opportunity that generations of investors could only dream about.

    You have the ability to read the handwriting on the wall; to know in advance what is most likely to happen next.

    Treasuries bond prices are already sinking. Long-term interest rates are already rising. Just since December alone, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has soared 50 percent (1.5 times its prior level).

    This is the recipe for disaster I’ve been warning you about:

    - Even before the interest rate rise, mortgages and consumer loans were already scarce.

    - Even before the rate rise, the official, greatly understated unemployment rate was already at 8.9 percent, on its way to 10 percent.

    - Even before higher rates, consumers were scared — delaying or cancelling major purchases.

    Now, rising interest rates are about to kill what little consumer demand is left in the U.S. economy — a perfect storm for corporate earnings and the U.S. stock market.
    Bijlage:
  5. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 09:48

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    quote:

    depers beleggers schreef:

    [quote=Kopie]
    Hmmmm, velen zien de dag positief sluiten.

    Ben ik dan te negatief?
    [/quote]
    meestal sluiten we hoger als usa dicht is.
    Ik verwacht ook hogere koersen vandaag
    In ieder geval tijdens de periode van een uptrend. In een downtrend tijdens een close in NY wordt die gewoon voortgezet.
  13. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 10:12

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    Goede morgen allen,

    Late nacht en zwaar weekend geworden en om 08.00 uur alweer bloedprikken...

    De MM en Ozzie@@ trachten te kijken of ze de boel zonder omzetten over en weer kunnen marsupuleren.
    En alsof die Raketsteekjes nieuws is: dit doen die Koreanen al jaar in jaar uit stiekum of niet.

    Low 257, conform Adje N. en High 261,37.
    Spread exact 4,09 punten.

    8 van de 10 keer als Yankees aan de kalkoen zitten, dan sluiten ze hoog in Euroland.

    Slechts een Negatieve Nieuwsfeit voor vandaag:
    Vrouwen Bloot en de Beurzen Dead????

    Groeten en Sterkte.

    NB: ga verder met nummer 10!

  14. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 10:32

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    US Tax Revenues Tanking – Bond Bubble Bursting

    US Tax revenues are falling much faster than official figures are forecasting. US government will have to borrow a lot more money than what they let on. The treasury bond market is bursting right before our eyes. The USD is also falling dramatically. This looks like the beginning of the end for America.

    David Galland reports :

    ….When you add in all revenue from all sources (including Social Security revenue, government fees, etc.), the fiscal year-to-date – October through April – revenue shortfall comes to 19%, vs. the 14.6% projected in Obama’s budget. If, however, the accelerating shortfall apparent year-to-date, and in April in particular, continues, the spread between projected and actual tax receipts will widen considerably.

    Tellingly, for the first time since 1983, the U.S. government posted a deficit in April. That’s a big swing in the wrong direction, as the bump in personal tax collections in April historically results in a big surplus – on average about $68 billion.

    What are the implications of this tanking tax revenue?
    For starters, it means the federal government deficit is going be as bad or worse than the $2.5 trillion Bud Conrad, chief economist of Casey Research, projected it to be last year.

    If the shortfall in individual and corporate tax revenue persists – and we expect it will – then the deep hole the government is already digging for itself will be that much deeper.

    Using the government’s own expense projections, the revenue shortfall, even if it doesn’t worsen further, would push the fiscal 2009 budget deficit up to about $1.958 trillion. For reasons we’ve discussed at some length in The Casey Report, those expense projections are likely to be significantly understated.

    Case in point, in January the government projected a $1.2 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2009 in March, just three months later, they upped the projection to $1.8 trillion. That $600 billion “adjustment” alone totaled more than any full-year budget deficit in the nation’s history.

    Yet, the real fly in the ointment is that the actual borrowing by the Treasury is likely to be at least half a trillion dollars more than the deficit.

    That’s because the Treasury is buying toxic paper (mortgage, credit card loans, etc.) and putting them on the books with a higher value than the market is willing to assign. While that makes the budget deficit appear smaller, it doesn’t negate the fact that the government still must borrow the money needed to buy the toxic paper in the first place. The additional revenue shortfall means they have to raise that much more money. Based on the struggle they had pushing the $14 billion in long-term notes at the latest auction, it becomes increasingly apparent that when push comes to shove, the only way the government is going to come up with the money needed to meet its aggressive spending is to print it up.
    ….
    In the absence of sizeable increases in tax revenues, it is quite clear that the lion’s share of the planned sales of Treasuries in 2009 cannot be met by demand from the market. Either the Treasury will have to raise interest rates significantly, or the Fed will need to step in very aggressively to support the planned auctions. Our expectation is that both will happen. Auctions will fail and the Fed will step in. The market will react to more printing by anticipating inflation and demanding higher interest rates. Once the cycle starts, it will be very hard to pull interest rates back.

    We continue to stand by our December forecast that the 2009 budget deficit is more likely to widen to levels between $2.5 and $3 trillion rather than the CBO’s $1.8 trillion forecast. We also believe that inflation could start setting in as early as Q3 of 2009 and will accelerate sharply by 2010. Treasury Rates will start climbing and the era of cheap money will end, making it harder for overleveraged consumers, businesses, and governments to service their debt.

    Olivier’s forecast of failed auctions and rising interest rates on Treasuries proved more prophetic as a May 7th story from Bloomberg reported:

    Treasury 30-year bonds fell the most in four months as investors demanded higher-than-forecasted yields at today’s auction of $14 billion of the securities with the U.S. slated to sell a record amount of debt this year.

    “This is a problem,” said Chris Ahrens, head interest-rate strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, one of 16 primary dealers required to bid in Treasury auctions. “The market required a fairly significant discount to buy the bonds.”

    Thirty-year bonds have lost investors 20.9 percent this year, Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes show, as the Treasury increases securities sales to help fund a swelling budget deficit. Yields climbed to a six-month high today as the auction drew a yield of 4.288 percent, higher than the 4.192 percent average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of seven primary dealers. Demand was below average, judging by total bids.

    The benchmark 30-year bond yield climbed 23 basis points, or 0.23 percentage points, the most since Jan. 5, to 4.316 percent, at 5:25 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market data. It was the highest yield since Nov. 14. The 3.5 percent security due in February 2039 dropped 3 15/32, or $34.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 86 3/8. The 10-year note yield increased 16 basis points to 3.345 percent, the highest since Nov. 24.

    Two-year notes yielded 1 percent for the first time since March 18, while the rate on the three-month Treasury bill was 0.18 percent.

    So, what does all this mean? As per above, the rock-and-the-hard-place scenario we have been predicting is unfolding before our eyes. At this point, other than sharply-changing course and letting the free market cope with the crisis through a brutal “survival of the fittest” scenario, the government is left with no other option than to accelerate its buying up of its own debt.

    Which is to say, it must push even harder on the levers of its printing presses, further setting the stage for the massive period of inflation we continue to see as inevitable and for the stunning rise in interest rates we are now positioning ourselves for ….
  16. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 10:53

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    Waarom OUTPERFORMEN wij? Waar gaat dit over ???

    CAC40 3199,4300 -0,88%
    Xetra Dax [D] 4858,3500 -1,23%

    En waarom moeten wij dan op die 260 staan ????
  17. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 10:58

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    quote:

    SuperBeer29 schreef:

    Waarom OUTPERFORMEN wij? Waar gaat dit over ???

    CAC40 3199,4300 -0,88%
    Xetra Dax [D] 4858,3500 -1,23%

    En waarom moeten wij dan op die 260 staan ????
    v-recovery

    volgende maand staan we tegen de 300 aan tehikken
  18. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 10:58

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    quote:

    SuperBeer29 schreef:

    Waarom OUTPERFORMEN wij? Waar gaat dit over ???

    CAC40 3199,4300 -0,88%
    Xetra Dax [D] 4858,3500 -1,23%

    En waarom moeten wij dan op die 260 staan ????
    RANDSTAD is de schuldige. Daar hebben wij deze vieze onterechte plus aan te danken. Kijk eens naar die trieste volume's waaraan men dit heeft te danken.
  19. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 10:59

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    quote:

    geritt de derde schreef:

    [quote=SuperBeer29]
    Waarom OUTPERFORMEN wij? Waar gaat dit over ???

    CAC40 3199,4300 -0,88%
    Xetra Dax [D] 4858,3500 -1,23%

    En waarom moeten wij dan op die 260 staan ????
    [/quote]

    v-recovery

    volgende maand staan we tegen de 300 aan tehikken
    Tuurlijk, als de dax op de 4000 staat en de cac op de 3500 zeker...
  20. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 11:02

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    quote:

    SuperBeer29 schreef:

    [quote=geritt de derde]
    [quote=SuperBeer29]
    Waarom OUTPERFORMEN wij? Waar gaat dit over ???

    CAC40 3199,4300 -0,88%
    Xetra Dax [D] 4858,3500 -1,23%

    En waarom moeten wij dan op die 260 staan ????
    [/quote]

    v-recovery

    volgende maand staan we tegen de 300 aan tehikken
    [/quote]Tuurlijk, als de dax op de 4000 staat en de cac op de 3500 zeker...
    te veel pessimisten dax trekt vanmiddag weer aan.

    veel gaan short denken absturtzzz en dan gaat de index gewoon de andere kant op.

    net als vandaag

  21. [verwijderd] 25 mei 2009 11:09

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    quote:

    geritt de derde schreef:

    [quote=SuperBeer29]
    [quote=geritt de derde]
    [quote=SuperBeer29]
    Waarom OUTPERFORMEN wij? Waar gaat dit over ???

    CAC40 3199,4300 -0,88%
    Xetra Dax [D] 4858,3500 -1,23%

    En waarom moeten wij dan op die 260 staan ????
    [/quote]

    v-recovery

    volgende maand staan we tegen de 300 aan tehikken
    [/quote]Tuurlijk, als de dax op de 4000 staat en de cac op de 3500 zeker...
    [/quote]

    te veel pessimisten dax trekt vanmiddag weer aan.

    veel gaan short denken absturtzzz en dan gaat de index gewoon de andere kant op.

    net als vandaag

    Lol. Last van tunnelvisie :-). Juist die visie die jij daar uit is exact het tegenovergestelde van wat de markt de afgelopen dagen heeft gedaan. Okay, het is niet zo hard gezakt maar we komen wel van 266! Let op: Te veel optimisten die 300+ 277 etc denken kunnen ook hard op hun muil vallen!
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