BiostockAddict schreef op 15 april 2015 21:23:
Galapagos moves towards RA deal but a dark horse remains on the horizon
Date April 15, 2015
Dark horse
Analysts covering AbbVie have pencilled in sales of $387m by 2020, according to consensus data from EvaluatePharma; baricitinib, by comparison, is forecast to be selling $680m by then.
Should AbbVie judge that filgotinib has the potential to be best in class it will likely be eyeing a much more successful future. Even the disappointing Xeljanz, which has yet to pass the muster of European regulators, sold $308m last year and is forecast to be generating $1.6bn by 2020 (Therapeutic focus – Jaks still need to prove worth in rheumatoid arthritis, December 12, 2014).
All of which means the potential for substantial payments to its Belgian partner in the future. Galapagos bulls are of course already raising the prospect of a takeout instead; with a market cap of €861m ($917m) this is within AbbVie’s reach although its recent $21bn binge on Pharmacyclics might give it pause.
Again, the unknown factor remains ABT-494; pursuit of this project instead would remove the need for any of payments. This is not to say that AbbVie will not be highly motivated to opt for the better compound and filgotinib does look highly competitive. But with ABT-494 a dark horse, it is impossible to tell which way the pendulum is swinging.
To contact the writer of this story email Amy Brown in London at AmyB@epvantage.com or follow @AmyEPVantage on Twitter.