ketchup schreef op 24 april 2020 15:32:
Nestlé Q1 beat : 4.3% - maintains 2020 guidance !! / first colour
Nestlé 4.3% organic sales growth beat 3.2% consensus amid 4.7% developed growth 'partially supported by consumer stockpiling '
however China fell double-digit amid lockdowns and heavy exposure to out of home.
In terms of categories prepared dishes ( frozen ) 7.1% and petcare ( double digit on premium/e-commerce growth ) led while coffe was solid.
Water and chocolate declined
E-commerce, now over 10% of sales, rose 29%
Guidance was maintained ( better than last year's 3.5% organc sales growth ) , higher margins, EPS.
Nestlé putting Yinlu under review : ie to be sold, will keep coffee
this under the present circumstances is a solid performance & reassuring as
guidance 2020 for now maintained ( many A-1 names withdrew 2020 guidance)
It puts Nestlé in a different league of super defensive & quality names
for now there is no Buyback update: this is amazing under present circumstances, some worried that the CHF 20bn programme cud be cut, but for now the programme is still on - again a different league -
stock goes ex dividend on monday @ 2.70 CHF / share
we value Nestlé as one of the best defensive stocks, the buyback for now still on, dividend ex on Monday
we expect Nestlé shares to do well and recommend buying on corrections
FY CHF estimates 2020 - 2021 - 2022
sales: 88.852 / 91.549 / 95.503
EBITDA adj: 19.608 / 20.634 / 21.516
EBIT adj: 15.158 / 16.114 / 17.046
Net profit adj: 12.472 / 13.307 / 14.086
Net debt: 25.991 / 27.926 / 28.918
FCF : 10.868 / 11.483 / 12.084
EPS adj and f/d: 4.36 / 4.74 / 5.11
Nestlé : we expect the stock under the present circumstances to be supported
- prepared dishes are booming
- coffee strong
- petcare surge
- confectionary and water declined
- E-commerce rose almost 30% and is now over 10% of the group
Nestlé will review its Yinlu Milk business ( chf 700m revenues)
BUY reiterated, in-home food winner
we expect the stock to be supported, although there cud be some currency headwinds - Nestlé operates in almost all countries world wide
fair value 100 - 115 CHF range for now
our estimates through to 2023, 3.5% mid-term growth, 2.5% terminal growth
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er zijn veel analisten die Nestlé volgen, zien het allemaal als een steady performer
is enkel interessant voor lange termijn investeerders met eerder een BUY and HOLD benadering
is echt een beleggersaandeel, minder geschikt voor handel
Dank voor de info.
Lijkt me net als Unilever, buy and hold.