SNSN schreef op 25 oktober 2018 16:15:
[...]
So, first target was hit, as planned (read just above). New 'low' at ~138 was formed under the lower border of lt/mt s-zone ~140-143, indeed.
The stock is in the downtrend on both mt- & st-horizons, moving within the mt-downtrend channel:
- the lower/upper edges for mt-downtrend (since Jul 24) are ~137 /~166
- the lower/upper edges for st-downtrend (since Oct 17) are ~138 / ~149.
ST/intraday horizons:At ~138 the stock just (almost) hit both mt- & st-downtrend borders, displaying standard upwards 'border reaction' towards the upper edge of st-downtrend.
Following p/v/t- distributions, there were NO 'profitable' speculative shares under ~143.70. So, if roughly, to dive under this level either some parties should take (or to be ready to take) losses, or lt-investors sitting in well before Aug 2017 should sell. Given ~1.2M new (spec) shares incl. 'shorts' could be sitting (since yesterday) in the range ~144-142 and just ~0.22M (spec) shares under 142, as well as almost 'neutral balance' above 145 (today), one can see that short-term strategies (fast cashing) dominate.
MT-horizon.The next target is ~127. Both technical and fundamental indicators show essentially rising prob. to get there within the Nov - mid Dec.
At trailing P/E = ~ 26 and really high 'beta' = ~1.65 the stock (above ~120) is overpriced (risk-return trade-off criteria) for lt-investors (fair value is ~115). Above ~120 the stock is actually NOT investment one, but just a playground for active short/long games (volatility trading).
Don't forget that at
'beta' = ~1.65 the stock has one of the highest market-risk exposure within the 'aex'-market (it's much more volatile than the market itself - really important when market turbulence is expected).
As for the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, early warning indicators show high probability for the index to be in a last phase of 'top-forming' (if briefly, the mt-volatility is very high, approaching that one from 2000, and the main s-zone 1230-1218 is braking down).
Good luck.