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Galapagos april 2020

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  1. Broer Konijn 29 april 2020 15:33

    • Broer Konijn

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    Boeiend artikel voor de Galapagos en Argenx liefhebbers.

    Mvg Broer Konijn

    Disclaimer: long Galapagos, Pharming e.a.

    portfolio-adviser.com

    Mark Denham: Europe is overlooked despite amazing businesses like LVMH
    By Sebastian Cheek, 29 Apr 20

    Carmignac’s European Leaders manager is trying to limit screen time as markets reel from Covid-19

    Even before the effects of the coronavirus outbreak tore through global markets, the European economy was on shaky ground. But for Carmignac’s Mark Denham, being a bottom-up stockpicker means he can still source resilient companies across the continent.
    Denham joined Carmignac three years ago after 12 years with Aviva Investors, and in that time he has been running the €269m (£235m) Carmignac Grande Europe Fund, a pan-European Sicav. For the past nine months he has also led the FP Carmignac European Leaders Fund, launched as an Oeic for the UK market in May last year.

    The two funds follow more or less the same strategy except that European Leaders is ex UK and an Oeic structure. “FP Carmignac European Leaders has only been going for nine months, so we have to use the experience, track record and what we’ve done on Grande Europe as our reference point,” says Denham.

    Keeping screen time to a minimum as markets reel from Covid-19
    As a stockpicker, Denham is not fond of addressing macro issues in interviews but he accepts Covid-19 has been so invasive in financial markets that he must make an exception. It comes as no surprise to him that markets have reacted so negatively to the outbreak, given they hate uncertainty. “It’s hard to know exactly what the short-term damage to profits and sales is going to be because things are changing on a daily basis,” he says.

    “And it’s even harder to predict what the longer-term implications might be for companies.

    “The authorities, whether they’re monetary or governments, are responding to varying degrees around the world. It’s all very supportive but I think until one of the western markets plateaus in the number of new cases of coronavirus, it’s hard to see stock markets reacting in a sustainably positive way.”

    With such dynamic movement of markets, Denham is reminding himself not to screen watch but to get on with the fundamentals of the job: analysing companies. However, he is confident in the resilience of the companies the fund invests in, saying the process means the team homes in on businesses with high sustainable profitability that reinvest for growth: businesses that can “grow to some extent under their own steam”. “I don’t want to be too cavalier about it but one hopes the long-term damage to their franchises won’t be that much.”

    Year to date the Euro Stoxx 50 is down by 28.8%, while the broader Stoxx Europe 600 is down 24.6% in sterling terms, but Denham argues that while there is no one particular area of opportunity, the drop has created entry points for a range of the portfolio’s holdings. “At the margin we’ve been using cash to add to some of our holdings, just as the prices have come down.”

    Denham says with reporting season ending a couple of months ago, there has not been a lot of bottom-up specific corporate news as everything is about the effect of coronavirus.

    “But day to day, we just carry on, me and my analysts. We have a shortlist at any given moment of about six names we are working on.”

    Luxury powerhouses versus tech titans
    The team looks for businesses that have two key characteristics: high sustainable profitability and the reinvestment of profits internally to grow the business for the future. The combination of those two factors results in a compounding effect in the value of the company over time, according to Denham.

    The team screens 1,600 companies from across Europe based on different factors around profitability and reinvestment.

    But that’s just a starting point, says Denham. “Ninety per cent of the work we do is traditional fundamental analysis of meeting management to understand the business drivers and do our valuation.”

    In terms of sectors, Denham says despite the obvious lack of technology leaders, Europe has a lot to offer and is an overlooked region. “Clearly, Europe hasn’t benefited from the internet business model explosion over the past 20 years in the same way that other regions have. We don’t have a Facebook or Google that dominate the world; we don’t have an Alibaba, Tencent or Mercado Libre that you would find in emerging markets.

    “But let’s not overlook the fact that in Europe we do have amazing businesses. For instance, luxury goods companies LVMH, Hermes, Adidas and Puma.”

    Puma is the fourth-largest position in the Grande Europe fund, accounting for 4.3% of the portfolio.

    Europe may not have tech titans but Denham draws attention to niche players in the tech space such as semiconductor company ASML and German software provider SAP, which is the second-largest position in the portfolio at 5.25%.

    Denham also believes European companies lead the world in renewable energy and the theme accounts for about 10% of the portfolio. “That’s the next mega-trend for the next few decades,” he says. The portfolio contains Danish wind turbine company Vesta but he also highlights Siemens Gamesa and Orsted as key players in the space.

    “In addition there are solar plays,” he adds. “We have a solar farm developer called Solaria in our portfolios, so in Europe we can really tap into this mega-trend for the future.”

    The European market by market capitalisation is dominated by or has large exposure to sectors Denham just does not find interesting. These are banks, insurance, utilities, telecoms, oil and which, in aggregate, account for nearly 40% of the European market by capitalisation.

    “You have to be fully active in Europe to avoid those sectors. Our active share is above 90% so we don’t follow the benchmark at all.”

    An area the team particularly likes at the moment is biotech because of its diversified pipeline, which Denham thinks is underappreciated by the market. About 8% of the fund is exposed to this sector. “Businesses here such as Morphosys, Galapagos, Argenx have multi-billion euro market caps. We’re not talking about a Neil Woodford-type strategy of investing in illiquid names. We could sell our holdings in a couple of days.”

    SRI criteria applied once universe has been whittled down
    All funds at Carmignac integrate ESG but Denham’s strategies are also classed as socially responsible.

    They have low exposure to carbon reserves and carbon emissions and exclude sectors such as weapons, tobacco and gambling.

    Once the financial screen has whittled the universe down to about 500 names, the SRI criteria are applied, which further reduces the pool to about 400 stocks. From this group the team picks about 35 to 40 holdings after conducting fundamental analysis. Denham likes the portfolio to be concentrated and it has just 36 holdings currently.

    He only ever looks to change about six or seven holdings in each year if deemed appropriate.

    “If you have 100 stocks, first of all you’re not going deliver performance better than the benchmark and, second, you can’t follow them all. Above 40 becomes counterproductive; below 35 and you start to get a little bit too concentrated, almost like a focus fund.

    “There’s more going on in Europe than meets the eye but, for whatever reason, we have ended up with a quite high concentration in Denmark.”

  2. forum rang 6 de tuinman 29 april 2020 15:53

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    quote:

    Toert schreef op 29 april 2020 15:30:

    [...]

    Geen idee, al gaat hun pil inderdaad ook over die MG ziekte.
    Sterker nog.. over een paar maanden fase 3 uitslagen. Argenx is hiermee al verder.
  3. [verwijderd] 29 april 2020 15:58

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    quote:

    Toert schreef op 29 april 2020 15:30:

    [...]

    Geen idee, al gaat hun pil inderdaad ook over die MG ziekte.
    Raar je zou verwachten dat de koers dan stijgt?
  5. [verwijderd] 29 april 2020 16:13

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    quote:

    Sweetheart schreef op 29 april 2020 15:58:

    [...]

    Raar je zou verwachten dat de koers dan stijgt?
    De koers van Argenx zit nu in dezelfde faze als galapagos vorig jaar in Q1. Wobbly Hobbly maar eerder stijgend.

  6. [verwijderd] 29 april 2020 16:22

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    quote:

    Broer Konijn schreef op 29 april 2020 15:33:

    Boeiend artikel voor de Galapagos en Argenx liefhebbers.

    Mvg Broer Konijn
    ...

    Dank je wel, Broer Keun. AB.

    Ik heb toch een vijftal namen van wat hij hier vermeldt in porto. Interessant !
  8. Jantje__belegger 29 april 2020 16:31

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    Ik heb voor een prijs van 24,90 Euro 5 stuks C 18 DEC 2020 210,00 gekocht. Ben dus weer in the race wat betreft Galapagos.

    Overigens ook een enorme winst inmiddels op ArcelorMittal en Fugro. Amerikaanse aandelen doen het ook erg goed (schandalige rendementen bij Amazon). Ben mijn beleggingsfondsen aan het afbouwen.
  9. [verwijderd] 29 april 2020 16:32

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    quote:

    Toert schreef op 29 april 2020 16:13:

    [...]

    De koers van Argenx zit nu in dezelfde faze als galapagos vorig jaar in Q1. Wobbly Hobbly maar eerder stijgend.

    Ik bedoel van ucb :-)
  10. Broer Konijn 29 april 2020 16:37

    • Broer Konijn

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    quote:

    Toert schreef op 29 april 2020 16:22:

    [...]

    Dank je wel, Broer Keun. AB.

    Ik heb toch een vijftal namen van wat hij hier vermeldt in porto. Interessant !
    Goed bezig Toert! Hoeveel fondsen heb je totaal in porto?
    Ik heb er in totaal 6.

    Mvg Broer Konijn
  13. Broer Konijn 29 april 2020 16:39

    • Broer Konijn

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    Macquarie Group Ltd. Purchases 910 Shares of GALAPAGOS NV/S (NASDAQ:GLPG)
    Posted by Emily Schoerning on Apr 29th, 2020

    Macquarie Group Ltd. boosted its stake in shares of GALAPAGOS NV/S (NASDAQ:GLPG) by 12.8% in the 4th quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 8,004 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock after acquiring an additional 910 shares during the quarter. Macquarie Group Ltd.’s holdings in GALAPAGOS NV/S were worth $1,655,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

    Other hedge funds also recently modified their holdings of the company. RMR Wealth Builders purchased a new stake in GALAPAGOS NV/S during the 4th quarter valued at about $82,000. SG Americas Securities LLC purchased a new stake in GALAPAGOS NV/S during the 4th quarter valued at about $113,000. FNY Investment Advisers LLC boosted its holdings in GALAPAGOS NV/S by 6.7% during the 4th quarter. FNY Investment Advisers LLC now owns 768 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock valued at $158,000 after acquiring an additional 48 shares during the period. Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc. boosted its holdings in GALAPAGOS NV/S by 23.8% during the 4th quarter. Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc. now owns 1,023 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock valued at $168,000 after acquiring an additional 197 shares during the period. Finally, Tower Research Capital LLC TRC boosted its holdings in GALAPAGOS NV/S by 136.5% during the 4th quarter. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC now owns 842 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock valued at $174,000 after acquiring an additional 486 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 11.67% of the company’s stock.

    Several research firms have weighed in on GLPG. Jefferies Financial Group upgraded GALAPAGOS NV/S from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $232.00 price objective for the company in a report on Monday, March 30th. Nomura Securities reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $290.00 price objective (up previously from $209.00) on shares of GALAPAGOS NV/S in a report on Wednesday, February 26th. Stifel Nicolaus reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $298.00 price objective (up previously from $188.00) on shares of GALAPAGOS NV/S in a report on Monday, February 24th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped their price objective on GALAPAGOS NV/S from $205.00 to $200.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a report on Monday, March 2nd. Finally, HC Wainwright reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $302.00 price objective (up previously from $205.00) on shares of GALAPAGOS NV/S in a report on Monday, February 24th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, nine have assigned a hold rating, five have given a buy rating and one has assigned a strong buy rating to the stock. The company presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $225.50.
  14. [verwijderd] 29 april 2020 16:41

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    quote:

    Sweetheart schreef op 29 april 2020 16:32:

    [...]

    Ik bedoel van ucb :-)
    Ook UCB is wobbly hobbly de laatste dagen, tot gisteren in feite heel ferm stijgend, vandaag kwakkelend. weet niet waarom. voorkennis vanwege die studie misschien ???
  15. Broke-r 29 april 2020 16:46

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    quote:

    BLOO7 schreef op 29 april 2020 16:05:

    SUPERNIEUWS
    hier ook!

    Jenner Institute's COVID-19 Vaccine Expected to Be Tested in 6,000 People Starting in May

    www.biospace.com/article/oxford-unive...
    Dit zou inderdaad super nieuws zijn. Mocht die test positief verlopen, dan kunnen de eerste miljoen mensen in september al een vaccinatie krijgen.
  16. [verwijderd] 29 april 2020 16:52

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    quote:

    Broer Konijn schreef op 29 april 2020 16:37:

    [...]

    Goed bezig Toert! Hoeveel fondsen heb je totaal in porto?
    Ik heb er in totaal 6.

    Mvg Broer Konijn
    ik heb er te veel... ook nogal wat echt belgische dingen, voel me een echte europeaan, maar als puntje bij paaltje komt mag het belgisch zijn. Zo heb ik mezelf wel beloofd om op 21 juli 2030, tweehonderste verjaardag van de onafhankelijkheid, alle Nederlandse fondsen buiten te zwieren. Maar tot dan blijf ik ASML houden... Tiens, ja, die werd ook genoemd, dan heb ik er zes uit dat artikel (ASML, Morphosys, Argen-X, Galapagos (sic), Vestas en Oersted). Ze vergeten uiteraard Sofina, Elia, Lotus, Umicore, UCB, Melexis, Barco (heb ik niet). Voor mijn part mag zelfs ASMI daar ook nog bij.

    Drie sectoren boeien me : biotech, groene energie en investeringen, en tech (hard en software). En je moet kopen wat je boeit, zeggen ze.

    Voor het ogenblik heb ik ook net iets te veel callopties. Vroeger had ik een strikte limiet van max 5% van mijn portefeuille, maar dat is nu toch eerder 25%. Foej.

    Ik ben dat wel wat aan het afbouwen, en heb wat cash klaar liggen die ik wilde investeren door geschreven puts voor mei te laten uitvoeren. Maar, spijtig genoeg (??) blijven de koersen maar stijgen en zal ik daar enkel de optiepremie van opstrijken. Volgende maand dan maar.
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