Hopper58 schreef op 17 oktober 2024 09:57:
Positive Points
ASML Holding NV (ASML, Financial) reported total net sales of EUR7.5 billion for Q3 2024, exceeding the high end of their guidance.
The company achieved a gross margin of 50.8%, which was within their guidance range.
Installed Base Management sales surpassed expectations, reaching EUR1.54 billion due to higher service and upgrade revenue.
ASML Holding NV (ASML) continues to make progress with their EUV technology, with significant improvements in throughput and performance.
The company maintains a strong backlog of over EUR36 billion, indicating sustained demand for their products.
Negative Points
ASML Holding NV (ASML) experienced a relatively low order intake in Q3 2024, reflecting a slow recovery in traditional end markets.
The company faces pressure on free cash flow due to lower order intake and higher inventory levels.
Gross margin for Q4 2024 is expected to be slightly lower than Q3, impacted by the revenue recognition of two high-NA systems.
ASML Holding NV (ASML) anticipates a reduced growth curve in 2025, with revenue expected to be in the lower half of their previous guidance range.
The company is cautious about China sales due to potential export controls and expects a normalization to 20% of total revenue in 2025.
Q & A Highlights
Q: Can you explain the change in China demand and its impact on your 2025 guidance?
A: Roger Dassen, CFO, explained that the normalization of China demand is due to a combination of factors. Previously, ASML was fulfilling a backlog for China, which has now decreased. Additionally, speculation around export controls has led to a more cautious view on China sales, which are expected to normalize to about 20% of total revenue in 2025.
Q: What are the reasons behind the reduction in EUV shipments for 2025, and how might this affect future years?
A: Christophe Fouquet, CEO, noted that the reduction is due to customers pushing out their fab investments, not canceling them. This suggests that the demand could spill over into 2026, but the exact timing will depend on market dynamics and customer decisions.
Q: How does the current market environment affect your gross margin expectations for 2025?
A: Roger Dassen, CFO, stated that the gross margin is expected to be between 51% and 53% in 2025, lower than previously anticipated. This is due to a significant reduction in expected EUV shipments and a less favorable product mix, with more 3600 systems than initially planned.
Q: What is the outlook for high NA EUV adoption among your top customers?
A: Christophe Fouquet, CEO, confirmed that all EUV customers have ordered high NA tools and are engaged in data collection. The positive performance data supports their plans for adoption, and the timing remains consistent with previous discussions.
Q: How confident are you in the growth of non-China DUV sales in 2025?
A: Roger Dassen, CFO, expressed confidence in the growth of non-China DUV sales, which are expected to correlate with EUV growth. The demand for DUV, particularly on leading nodes, is robust and supports the projected increase.
www.gurufocus.com/news/2557106/asml-h...