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ING dagdraadje Maandag 27 April.

258 Posts
Pagina: 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 13 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. [verwijderd] 26 april 2009 23:52

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    Vandaag staat de ava op het programma en wat zal er dus uitkomen.
    Ikzelf denk dat er alleen maar positieve berichten zullen uitkomen zoals kostenbeparingen.
    Verder zullen we het gewoon af moeten wachten maar blijf er positief onder.
  2. Robevis 27 april 2009 01:28

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    quote:

    vejomo schreef:

    Vandaag staat de ava op het programma en wat zal er dus uitkomen.
    Ikzelf denk dat er alleen maar positieve berichten zullen uitkomen zoals kostenbeparingen.
    Verder zullen we het gewoon af moeten wachten maar blijf er positief onder.
    Hoe laat is deze AVA en wanneer wordt evtl. nieuws bekend gemaakt?
  3. [verwijderd] 27 april 2009 03:04

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    The capital well is running dry and some economies will wither
    The world is running out of capital. We cannot take it for granted that the global bond markets will prove deep enough to fund the $6 trillion or so needed for the Obama fiscal package, US-European bank bail-outs, and ballooning deficits almost everywhere.


    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

    Unless this capital is forthcoming, a clutch of countries will prove unable to roll over their debts at a bearable cost. Those that cannot print money to tide them through, either because they no longer have a national currency (Ireland, Club Med), or because they borrowed abroad (East Europe), run the biggest risk of default.

    Traders already whisper that some governments are buying their own debt through proxies at bond auctions to keep up illusions – not to be confused with transparent buying by central banks under quantitative easing. This cannot continue for long.

    Commerzbank said every European bond auction is turning into an "event risk". Britain too finds itself some way down the AAA pecking order as it tries to sell £220bn of Gilts this year to irascible investors, astonished by 5pc deficits into the middle of the next decade.

    US hedge fund Hayman Advisers is betting on the biggest wave of state bankruptcies and restructurings since 1934. The worst profiles are almost all in Europe – the epicentre of leverage, and denial. As the IMF said last week, Europe's banks have written down 17pc of their losses – American banks have swallowed half.

    "We have spent a good part of six months combing through the world's sovereign balance sheets to understand how much leverage we are dealing with. The results are shocking," said Hayman's Kyle Bass.

    It looked easy for Western governments during the credit bubble, when China, Russia, emerging Asia, and petro-powers were accumulating $1.3 trillion a year in reserves, recycling this wealth back into US Treasuries and agency debt, or European bonds.

    The tap has been turned off. These countries have become net sellers. Central bank holdings have fallen by $248bn to $6.7 trillion over the last six months. The oil crash has forced both Russia and Venezuela to slash reserves by a third. China let slip last week that it would use more of its $40bn monthly surplus to shore up growth at home and invest in harder assets – perhaps mining companies.

    The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said last week that since UK debt topped 200pc of GDP after the Second World War, we can comfortably manage the debt-load in this debacle (80pc to 100pc). Variants of this argument are often made for the rest of the OECD club.

    But our world is nothing like the late 1940s, when large families were rearing the workforce that would master the debt. Today we face demographic retreat. West and East are both tipping into old-aged atrophy (though the US is in best shape, nota bene).

    Japan's $1.5 trillion state pension fund – the world's biggest – dropped a bombshell this month. It will start selling holdings of Japanese state bonds this year to cover a $40bn shortfall on its books. So how is the Ministry of Finance going to fund a sovereign debt expected to reach 200pc of GDP by 2010 – also the world's biggest – even assuming that Japan's industry recovers from its 38pc crash?

    Japan is the first country to face a shrinking workforce in absolute terms, crossing the dreaded line in 2005. Its army of pensioners is dipping into the collective coffers. Japan's savings rate has fallen from 14pc of GDP to 2pc since 1990. Such a fate looms for Germany, Italy, Korea, Eastern Europe, and eventually China as well.

    So where is the $6 trillion going to come from this year, and beyond? For now we must fall back on the Fed, the Bank of England, and fellow central banks, relying on QE (printing money) to pay for our schools, roads, and administration. It is necessary, alas, to stave off debt deflation. But it is also a slippery slope, as Fed hawks keep reminding their chairman Ben Bernanke.

    Threadneedle Street may soon have to double its dose to £150bn, increasing the Gilt load that must eventually be fed back onto the market. The longer this goes on, the bigger the headache later. The Fed is in much the same bind. One wonders if Mr Bernanke regrets saying so blithely that Washington can create unlimited dollars "at essentially no cost".

    Hayman Advisers says the default threat lies in the cocktail of spiralling public debt and the liabilities of banks – like RBS, Fortis, or Hypo Real – that are landing on sovereign ledger books.

    "The crux of the problem is not sub-prime, or Alt-A mortgage loans, or this or that bank. Governments around the world allowed their banking systems to grow unchecked, in some cases growing into an untenable liability for the host country," said Mr Bass.

    A disturbing number of states look like Iceland once you dig into the entrails, and most are in Europe where liabilities average 4.2 times GDP, compared with 2pc for the US. "There could be a cluster of defaults over the next three years, possibly sooner," he said.

    Research by former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff and professor Carmen Reinhart found that spasms of default occur every couple of generations, each time shattering the illusions of bondholders. Half the world succumbed in the 1830s and again in the 1930s.

    The G20 deal to triple the IMF's
    fire-fighting fund to $750bn buys time for the likes of Ukraine and Argentina. But the deeper malaise is that so many of the IMF's backers are themselves exhausting their credit lines and cultural reserves.

    Great bankruptcies change the world. Spain's defaults under Philip II ruined the Catholic banking dynasties of Italy and south Germany, shifting the locus of financial power to Amsterdam. Anglo-Dutch forces were able to halt the Counter-Reformation, free northern Europe from absolutism, and break into North America.

    Who knows what revolution may come from this crisis if it ever reaches defaults. My hunch is that it would expose Europe's deep fatigue – brutally so – reducing the Old World to a backwater. Whether US hegemony remains intact is an open question. I would bet on US-China condominium for a quarter century, or just G2 for short.

    www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/a...
  4. [verwijderd] 27 april 2009 03:08

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    Housing Bubble Smackdown: Bigger Crash Ahead
    Huge "shadow inventory"


    Due to the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium at the end of March, the downward slide in housing prices is gaining speed. The moratorium was initiated in January to give Obama's anti-foreclosure program---which is a combination of mortgage modifications and refinancing---a chance to succeed. The goal of the plan was to keep up to 9 million struggling homeowners in their homes, but it's clear now that the program will fall well-short of its objective.

    In March, housing prices accelerated on the downside indicating bigger adjustments dead-ahead. Trend-lines are steeper now than ever before--nearly perpendicular. Housing prices are not falling, they're crashing and crashing hard. Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, Notices of Default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These Notices will turn into foreclosures in 4 to 5 months time creating another cascade of foreclosures. Market analysts predict there will be 5 MILLION MORE FORECLOSURES BETWEEN NOW AND 2011. It's a disaster bigger than Katrina. Soaring unemployment and rising foreclosures ensure that hundreds of banks and financial institutions will be forced into bankruptcy. 40 percent of delinquent homeowners have already vacated their homes. There's nothing Obama can do to make them stay. Worse still, only 30 percent of foreclosures have been relisted for sale suggesting more hanky-panky at the banks. Where have the houses gone? Have they simply vanished?

    600,000 "DISAPPEARED HOMES?"

    Here's a excerpt from the SF Gate explaining the mystery:

    "Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale, according to numerous data sources. And foreclosures, which banks unload at fire-sale prices, are a major factor driving home values down.

    "We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000 properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market," said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac, which compiles nationwide statistics on foreclosures. "California probably represents 80,000 of those homes. It could be disastrous if the banks suddenly flooded the market with those distressed properties. You'd have further depreciation and carnage."

    In a recent study, RealtyTrac compared its database of bank-repossessed homes to MLS listings of for-sale homes in four states, including California. It found a significant disparity - only 30 percent of the foreclosures were listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. The remainder is known in the industry as "shadow inventory." ("Banks aren't Selling Many Foreclosed Homes" SF Gate)

    If regulators were deployed to the banks that are keeping foreclosed homes off the market, they would probably find that the banks are actually servicing the mortgages on a monthly basis to conceal the extent of their losses. They'd also find that the banks are trying to keep housing prices artificially high to avoid heftier losses that would put them out of business. One thing is certain, 600,000 "disappeared" homes means that housing prices have a lot farther to fall and that an even larger segment of the banking system is underwater.

    Here is more on the story from Mr. Mortgage "California Foreclosures About to Soar...Again"

    "Are you ready to see the future? Ten’s of thousands of foreclosures are only 1-5 months away from hitting that will take total foreclosure counts back to all-time highs. This will flood an already beaten-bloody real estate market with even more supply just in time for the Spring/Summer home selling season...Foreclosure start (NOD) and Trustee Sale (NTS) notices are going out at levels not seen since mid 2008. Once an NTS goes out, the property is taken to the courthouse and auctioned within 21-45 days....The bottom line is that there is a massive wave of actual foreclosures that will hit beginning in April that can’t be stopped without a national moratorium."

    JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Fannie Mae have all stepped up their foreclosure activity in recent weeks. Delinquencies have skyrocketed foreshadowing more price-slashing into the foreseeable future. According to the Wall Street Journal:

    "Ronald Temple, co-director of research at Lazard Asset Management, expects home prices to fall 22% to 27% from their January levels. More than 2.1 million homes will be lost this year because borrowers can't meet their loan payments, up from about 1.7 million in 2008." (Ruth Simon, "The housing crisis is about to take center stage once again" Wall Street Journal)

    Another 20 percent carved off the aggregate value of US housing means another $4 trillion loss to homeowners. That means smaller retirement savings, less discretionary spending, and lower living standards. The next leg down in housing will be excruciating; every sector will feel the pain. Obama's $75 billion mortgage rescue plan is a mere pittance; it won't reduce the principle on mortgages and it won't stop the bleeding. Policymakers have decided they've done enough and are refusing to help. They don't see the tsunami looming in front of them plain as day. The housing market is going under and it's going to drag a good part of the broader economy along with it. Stocks, too.

    Mike Whitney is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Mike Whitney

    globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=v...
  9. [verwijderd] 27 april 2009 08:59

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    Er was al een draadje "Maandag 27 April".
    Vanwaar deze doublure, is het vanwege de varkensgriep waarbij we niet meer in groepjes mogen gaan staan?
  12. TraderRon 27 april 2009 09:06

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    En we staan alweer op kop met in de min gaan in europa. Echt de AEX ;-)
    Deden we dat ook maar bij een plusje.
  15. BobTL 27 april 2009 09:14

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    quote:

    la rinconada schreef:

    het slaat allemaal nergens op maar je kan er aardig op in spelen als je nog cash bezit is het toch weer goed koop inkopen
    koop er dan even heel veel, ik heb een verkooporder inliggen op 6,10...
  16. [verwijderd] 27 april 2009 09:15

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    quote:

    la rinconada schreef:

    het slaat allemaal nergens op maar je kan er aardig op in spelen als je nog cash bezit is het toch weer goed koop inkopen
    Kijk eens wat zo'n griep doet met een aandeel als Air France-KLM! Kun je gebruik van maken.
  17. [verwijderd] 27 april 2009 09:15

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    quote:

    andrejes schreef:

    Waar eindigen we vandaag onder de 6 euro??
    Als dit nog een aantal dagen aanhoudt kan het wel eens pijnlijk gaan worden. Varkensgriep zal zich nog even uitbreiden, en ik ben bang de verliezen op de beurs daarmee ook.
  18. [verwijderd] 27 april 2009 09:16

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    Britse economie neigt naar scenario van de jaren 30

    i.cdn.turner.com/ireport/sm/prod/2009...

    De recessie in het Verenigd Koninkrijk zal alleszins tot het einde van dit jaar blijven duren, zo verklaarde ex-minister van Financiën Roger Bootle. De daling van de huizenprijzen is vergelijkbaar met wat er in de jaren 30 gebeurde.

    Het BBP zal in 2010 met 1% krimpen, na een terugval met 4% dit jaar. Bootle, die nu economisch adviseur is bij Deloitte & Touche LLP, merkt op dat de huizenprijzen in april al voor de 19de maand op rij zijn gedaald.

    Bootle sluit zelfs niet dat de Britse economie in een depressie kan wegzakken. Zijn voorspellingen zijn veel pessimistischer dan die van de Britse regering, die voor volgend jaar rekent op een economische opleving.

    cash.rnews.be/nl/geld-en-beurs/nieuws...
  19. TraderRon 27 april 2009 09:17

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    Air France KLM is nou net z'on aandeel die hier inderdaad flink onder kan lijden. Er moet aardig wat gebeuren voordat de financials hier echt last van krijgen. Maarja we moeten nu eenmaal down.
    Op dit moment is er gewoon nauwelijks handel koers wordt bepaald door paniekdumpers.
  20. [verwijderd] 27 april 2009 09:18

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    quote:

    andrejes schreef:

    Waar eindigen we vandaag onder de 6 euro??
    Tijdens en na de aandeelhoudersvergadering zal de koers wel weer een beetje worden opgekrikt verwacht ik.
  21. BobTL 27 april 2009 09:19

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    quote:

    fRiEtJeSaTe schreef:

    [quote=andrejes]
    Waar eindigen we vandaag onder de 6 euro??
    [/quote]
    Als dit nog een aantal dagen aanhoudt kan het wel eens pijnlijk gaan worden. Varkensgriep zal zich nog even uitbreiden, en ik ben bang de verliezen op de beurs daarmee ook.
    Dat denk ik dus ook, er verschijnen alweer berichten dat de gripe het economische herstel kan vertregen. Daarnaast is dit natuurlijk de beste reden om even winst te nemen na een rally van 7 weken. Hier moet je even vandaagn blijven, zorgen dat je cash hebt of creeert(verkopen) en straks week instappen.
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