DarkAngel schreef op 7 juni 2020 22:00:
Misschien hadden jullie al gezien, Kepler heeft URW wat bijgesteld naar TP van 90 maar ECP nog steeds TP 20. INteresant rapport van ze
This crisis will have significant consequences for retail and will probably
accelerate two phenomena that existed before the crisis: online penetration and
physical retail polarisation. Retailers will optimise their store numbers and keep the
strongest
BNP Paribas Real Estate: “Prime rents are the ones most likely to see the least important changes in
the immediate future for most major European cities. Downward adjustments could be reported in
some secondary locations. Overall, gaps will certainly be reinforced between prime and secondary
locations in terms of rents and vacancy, as this pattern has already been observed in the past five
years. Repricing for shopping centres and retail warehouses should accelerate, especially for noncore assets, providing opportunities for investors.”
CBRE: “While cap rates have been expected to expand, notably for retail and hotel, there has been
limited market evidence to date. Bid-offer spreads have emerged in several sectors and countries,
with potential discounts of 5-10%. No signs of distress selling yet.”
Knight Frank France: “As with the rental market, we lack references to determine the extent of the
repricing of retail assets. That said, a few examples of negotiations in progress seem to indicate fairly modest stability or recovery in the core segment, between 5% and 10%. In the core and value-add
segments, some negotiations show a yield increase of up to 20%.”
JLL France: “With regard to transaction prices, yields should remain stable for prime assets (with
yields that are less volatile than secondary assets) to which investors will turn according to the logic
of "flight to quality” in times of crisis, especially since the French market is a sub-supplier of premium
quality assets and therefore even a drop in demand for these products should not be enough to
impact prices. In addition, unlike other asset classes, a yield correction has already been initiated in
trade over the past two years.”