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Goed nieuws, of toch niet?

1. Ruud100 9 augustus 2009 11:28

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   Freddie Mac heeft winst geboekt!
   
   Ja hoor. Dankzij een verandering in de boekhoudregels en hogere inkomsten uit rente bleef 768 miljoen dollar over onder de streep.
   
   Gr
   Ruud
   
   
   Freddie Mac boekt winst in Q2
   
   Gepubliceerd: gisteren 11:15
   Update: gisteren 12:13
   
   De Amerikaanse hypotheekbank Freddie Mac heeft in het tweede kwartaal voor het eerst in twee jaar weer winst gemaakt. Dankzij een verandering in de boekhoudregels en hogere inkomsten uit rente bleef 768 miljoen dollar over onder de streep.
   
   Freddie Mac moest in het afgelopen kwartaal 5,2 miljard dollar opzij zetten voor slechte leningen, tegen 8,8 miljard dollar een jaar eerder. De hypotheekverstrekker waarschuwde echter dat die verbetering waarschijnlijk tijdelijk is en dat de verliezen op slechte leningen de komende tijd weer zullen groeien.
   
   Freddie Mac is evenals zusterorganisatie Fannie Mae afhankelijk van overheidssteun om te overleven. Dankzij de winst in het tweede kwartaal heeft Freddie Mac voor het eerst in een jaar tijd niet om nieuwe steun hoeven vragen. Fannie Mae vroeg eerder deze week bijna 11 miljard dollar aan nieuwe steun, na een verlies van ruim 14 miljard dollar in het tweede kwartaal.
   
   Eerder deze week:
   
   Opnieuw staatssteun voor Fannie Mae
   
   Gepubliceerd: vrijdag 7 augustus 2009 09:47
   
   De Amerikaanse hypotheekbank Fannie Mae is nog niet uit de problemen. De grootste hypotheekverstrekker van de Verenigde Staten leed in het tweede kwartaal een verlies van 14,8 miljard dollar (10,3 miljard euro) en moet opnieuw bij de overheid aankloppen voor financiële steun.
   
   Fannie Mae vraagt de Staat 10,7 miljard dollar om te overleven. Het geld komt uit een pot van 400 miljard dollar die de Amerikaanse regering reserveerde voor de hypotheekbank en zusterorganisatie Freddie Mac. Met de kredieten moeten beide hypotheekbanken, die vorig jaar door de overheid van de ondergang werden gered, hypotheekleningen van in de problemen geraakte huiseigenaren aanpassen.
   
   Met het achtste achtereenvolgende kwartaalverlies liepen de totale verliezen van Fannie Mae in de afgelopen twee jaar op tot ruim 100 miljard dollar.
   
2. Ruud100 9 augustus 2009 12:13

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   Nog meer goed nieuws. Kan maandag maar 1 kant uit: Steil omhoog. De uitgaven om de financiele crisis tew overleven van de westerse wereld bedragen nu 1779 pond of bijna 2100 euro per wereldbewoner.
   
   Gr
   Ruud
   
   IMF puts total cost of crisis at £7.1 trillion
   
   The cost of mopping up after the world financial crisis has come to $11.9 trillion (£7.12 trillion) − enough to finance a £1,779 handout for every man, woman and child on the planet.
   
   By Edmund Conway
   Published: 10:01PM BST 08 Aug 2009
   
   The staggering total is is equivalent to around a fifth of the entire globe's annual economic output and includes capital injections pumped into banks in order to prevent them from collapse, the cost of soaking up so-called toxic assets, guarantees over debt and liquidity support from central banks. Although much of the total may never be called on, the potential outlay still dwarfs any previous repair bill for the global economy.
   
   The IMF calculations, produced ahead of the two-year anniversary of the crisis, underline the continually mounting cost. Most of the cash has been handed over by developed countries, for whom the bill has been $10.2 trillion, while developing countries have spent only $1.7 trillion − the majority of which is in central bank liquidity support for their stuttering financial sectors.
   
   The IMF figures also show that Britain has been the biggest of all the spenders on emergency measures to support its financial sector, with its total bill for the clean-up amounting to 81.8pc of its gross domestic product − equivalent to £1,227bn.
   
   Britain's record bill is also unique in that it has also already spent much of it already, with 20pc of GDP having already supported struggling institutions.
   
   The countries that make up the G20 grouping will face a combined budget deficit of 10.2pc of GDP in 2009 − the biggest since the Second World War. Although the biggest will be faced by the US, with 13.5pc of GDP, Britain also faces an 11.6pc deficit and Japan a 10.3pc one.
   
3. Ruud100 9 augustus 2009 12:21

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   Fiscal ruin of the Western world beckons
   
   For a glimpse of what awaits Britain, Europe, and America as budget deficits spiral to war-time levels, look at what is happening to the Irish welfare state.
   
   By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
   Published: 5:40PM BST 18 Jul 2009
   
   Events have already forced Premier Brian Cowen to carry out the harshest assault yet seen on the public services of a modern Western state. He has passed two emergency budgets to stop the deficit soaring to 15pc of GDP. They have not been enough. The expert An Bord Snip report said last week that Dublin must cut deeper, or risk a disastrous debt compound trap.
   
   A further 17,000 state jobs must go (equal to 1.25m in the US), though unemployment is already 12pc and heading for 16pc next year.
   
   Education must be cut 8pc. Scores of rural schools must close, and 6,900 teachers must go. "The attacks outlined in this report would represent an education disaster and light a short fuse on a social timebomb", said the Teachers Union of Ireland.
   
   Nobody is spared. Social welfare payments must be cut 5pc, child benefit by 20pc. The Garda (police), already smarting from a 7pc pay cut, may have to buy their own uniforms. Hospital visits could cost £107 a day, etc, etc.
   
   "Something has to give," said Professor Colm McCarthy, the report's author. "We're borrowing €400m (£345m) a week at a penalty interest."
   
   No doubt Ireland has been the victim of a savagely tight monetary policy - given its specific needs. But the deeper truth is that Britain, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, the US, and Japan are in varying states of fiscal ruin, and those tipping into demographic decline (unlike young Ireland) have an underlying cancer that is even more deadly. The West cannot support its gold-plated state structures from an aging workforce and depleted tax base.
   
   As the International Monetary Fund made clear last week, Britain is lucky that markets have not yet imposed a "penalty interest" on British Gilts, given the trajectory of UK national debt – now vaulting towards 100pc of GDP – and the scandalous refusal of this Government to map out any path back to solvency.
   
   "The UK has been getting the benefit of the doubt, both in the Government bond market and also the foreign exchange market. This benefit of the doubt is not going to last forever," said the Fund.
   
   France and Italy have been less abject, but they began with higher borrowing needs. Italy's debt is expected to reach the danger level of 120pc next year, according to leaked Treasury documents. France's debt will near 90pc next year if President Nicolas Sarkozy goes ahead with his "Grand Emprunt", a fiscal blitz masquerading as investment.
   
   There was a case for an emergency boost last winter to cushion the blow as global industry crashed. That moment has passed. While I agree with Nomura's Richard Koo that the US, Britain, and Europe risk a deflationary slump along the lines of Japan's Lost Decade (two decades really), I am ever more wary of his calls for Keynesian spending a l'outrance.
   
   Such policies have crippled Japan. A string of make-work stimulus plans - famously building bridges to nowhere in Hokkaido - has ensured that the day of reckoning will be worse, when it comes. The IMF says Japan's gross public debt will reach 240pc of GDP by 2014 - beyond the point of recovery for a nation with a contracting workforce. Sooner or later, Japan's bond market will blow up.
   
   Error One was to permit a bubble in the 1980s. Error Two was to wait a decade before opting for monetary "shock and awe" through quantitative easing.
   
   The US Federal Reserve has moved faster but already seems to think the job is done. "Quantitative tightening" has begun. Its balance sheet has contracted by almost $200bn (£122bn) from the peak. The M2 money supply has stagnated since January. The Fed is talking of "exit strategies".
   
   Is this a replay of mid-2008 when the Fed lost its nerve, bristling over criticism that it had cut rates too low (then 2pc)? Remember what happened. Fed hawks in Dallas, St Louis, and Atlanta talked of rate rises. That had consequences. Markets tightened in anticipation, and arguably triggered the collapse of Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie and Freddie that Autumn.
   
   The Fed's doctrine – New Keynesian Synthesis – has let it down time and again in this long saga, and there is scant evidence that Fed officials recognise the fact. As for the European Central Bank, it has let private loan growth contract this summer.
   
   The imperative for the debt-bloated West is to cut spending systematically for year after year, off-setting the deflationary effect with monetary stimulus. This is the only mix that can save us.
   
   My awful fear is that we will do exactly the opposite, incubating yet another crisis this autumn, to which we will respond with yet further spending. This is the road to ruin.
   
4. Beperktedijkbewaking 9 augustus 2009 15:14

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   quote:

   Ruud100 schreef:

   ...
   Such policies have crippled Japan. A string of make-work stimulus plans - famously building bridges to nowhere in Hokkaido - has ensured that the day of reckoning will be worse, when it comes. The IMF says Japan's gross public debt will reach 240pc of GDP by 2014 - beyond the point of recovery for a nation with a contracting workforce. Sooner or later, Japan's bond market will blow up.
   
   Error One was to permit a bubble in the 1980s. Error Two was to wait a decade before opting for monetary "shock and awe" through quantitative easing.
   
   ...
   My awful fear is that we will do exactly the opposite, incubating yet another crisis this autumn, to which we will respond with yet further spending. This is the road to ruin.
   

   Ach, Japan heeft grotere schokken mee gemaakt dan wij in het Westen. Zie, ter relativering:
   
   andreas.com/hokusai.html
   
   In vele betekenissen een les.
   
5. Ruud100 9 augustus 2009 15:34

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   Als onderstaande klopt dan zitten we nu midden in een campingrally.
   
   De kleine belegger koopt zich helemaal suf, de grote jongens blijven aan de kant. Over het algemeen is dat een slecht instapmoment.
   
   gr
   Ruud
   
   

   quote:

   schreef:

   Vooral kleine belegger geeft de beurs de laatste tijd weer vleugels
   
   Beleggen kan en mag weer
   
   Door: Tjeerd Wiersma
   Gepubliceerd: dinsdag 4 augustus 2009 23:41
   Update: dinsdag 4 augustus 2009 23:47
   
   Na een enorme dip in maart, is de beurs sinds enkele weken bezig met een opvallende comeback. 15 procent: zo veel is de AEX-index sinds 13 juli gestegen. Op die dag was iedereen nog bang dat de beurs door zijn hoeven zou zakken en onder de 240 punten zou sluiten. Maar nee, de beurs leeft in ieder geval voorlopig weer – en beleggen daarmee ook.
   
   Want wat opvalt aan de huidige rally is dat ze vooral door particuliere beleggers wordt gedragen. De professionals kijken het allemaal nog even aan.
   
   Zij waren volgens beleggingsdeskundige Corné van Zeijl, die maandelijks voor beleggingssite IEX het sentiment onder professionele beleggers peilt, licht negatief gestemd voor juli (AEX +11,1 procent!). Dat kwam onder andere omdat velen van hen op teleurstellende kwartaalcijfers rekenden.
   
   Maar juist dat werden enorme meevallers. En dat laatste spoorde met name particuliere beleggers aan om weer in te stappen. De koersen gingen daardoor flink omhoog; zo zeer zelfs dat het sommige beleggers lukte om in paar weken tijd vrijwel hun hele jaarrendement te maken. Waarmee een nieuwe campingrally geboren leek.
   
   Hoe anders was het nog in maart toen veel beleggers de beurs definitief afzweerden. Nooit meer in die verdomde AEX beleggen. ‘Ik ben het zat’, ‘Het komt nooit meer goed’ en ‘Ik ga alles op een depot zetten’, waren zeer gangbare teksten. De angst overheerste.
   
   Toch is het opportunisme op de aandelenmarkten en het enthousiasme dat nu terug is bij beleggers gerechtvaardigd, vindt handelaar Peter Jurgens van Keijser Capital. ‘De beurs loopt altijd vooruit op de economische ontwikkelingen. Beleggers zijn alweer bezig met de winsten die bedrijven gaan maken in 2010.’
   
   Volgens Jurgens is er genoeg reden voor optimisme. Zo wijst hij er op dat Nouriel Roubini – de vooraanstaande Amerikaanse econoom die de kredietcrisis voorspelde – onlangs zei dat het ergste van de crisis voorbij is. Dat geeft beleggers houvast.
   
   Ook merkt Jurgens op dat het vertrouwen in de financiële sector terug begint te komen. ‘Er zijn bepaalde grafieken waarop grote beleggers zich baseren die er op wijzen dat bijvoorbeeld een ING nu veel betere kansen heeft om te overleven dan een paar maanden geleden.’ Ook daardoor is er weer hoop. Jurgens ziet het sentiment op de beurs voorlopig ook niet keren.
   
   Rob Koenders, handelaar Harmony Vermogensbeheer, is het met Jurgens eens.‘Beleggers op de beurs denken nog steeds dat de koopjes voor het oprapen liggen. Verder gaan ze ervan uit dat het over een half jaar weer een stuk beter gaat met de bedrijven. Dat vertaalt zich in hogere uitslagen op de koersenborden.’
   
   

6. [verwijderd] 9 augustus 2009 16:45

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   quote:

   Ruud100 schreef:

   Freddie Mac heeft winst geboekt!
   
   Ja hoor. Dankzij een verandering in de boekhoudregels en hogere inkomsten uit rente bleef 768 miljoen dollar over onder de streep.
   

   Niks verandering in regels.
   
   Het oude regime is gewoon hersteld en ze mogen weer volop frauderen met de waardering om op die manier hun zielige bonussen veilig te stellen.
   
   
7. Beperktedijkbewaking 9 augustus 2009 17:19

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   @ mkznk:
   Nee, voor de zoveelste keer: geen fraude, wel schuiven in de tijd. Maar ooit moet een ieder met dubieuze leningen met de billen bloot. That's it.
   
   Wat wil je liever? Totale paniek en ineenstorting van de banken en het betalingsverkeer?
   Of meer geleidelijk verlies nemen? Met ook nog kans op herstel?
   
   Om vergelijkbare redenen was ik eind 2008 en begin dit jaar mordicus tegen het verkopen van aandelen door pensioenfondsen.
   
8. Ruud100 9 augustus 2009 17:23

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   quote:

   HandeR schreef:

   @ mkznk:
   Nee, voor de zoveelste keer: geen fraude, wel schuiven in de tijd. Maar ooit moet een ieder met dubieuze leningen met de billen bloot. That's it.
   
   Wat wil je liever? Totale paniek en ineenstorting van de banken en het betalingsverkeer?
   Of meer geleidelijk verlies nemen? Met ook nog kans op herstel?
   
   Om vergelijkbare redenen was ik eind 2008 en begin dit jaar mordicus tegen het verkopen van aandelen door pensioenfondsen.
   
   

   Bij die geleidelijkheid passen geen winsten van bijna $ 800 miljoen. Geleidelijkheid vraagt dat je maximaal blijft afschrijven op je rommel en je resultaat dicht bij of onder de rode streep houdt. Anders zijn we over 30 jaar nog bezig.
   
   Gr
   Ruud
9. Beperktedijkbewaking 9 augustus 2009 18:17

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   quote:

   Ruud100 schreef:

   [quote=HandeR]
   @ mkznk:
   Nee, voor de zoveelste keer: geen fraude, wel schuiven in de tijd. Maar ooit moet een ieder met dubieuze leningen met de billen bloot. That's it.
   ...
   [/quote]
   
   Bij die geleidelijkheid passen geen winsten van bijna $ 800 miljoen. Geleidelijkheid vraagt dat je maximaal blijft afschrijven op je rommel en je resultaat dicht bij of onder de rode streep houdt. Anders zijn we over 30 jaar nog bezig.
   Gr
   Ruud
   

   Op zich mee eens. Maar wat is de conclusie?
   1. Ze belazeren nog steeds de kluit?
   2. Of, die paniek, mede veroorzaakt door de te stringente mark-to-market boekhouding, was te extreem?
   
10. Ruud100 9 augustus 2009 20:34

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    quote:

    HandeR schreef:

    [quote=Ruud100]
    
    Bij die geleidelijkheid passen geen winsten van bijna $ 800 miljoen. Geleidelijkheid vraagt dat je maximaal blijft afschrijven op je rommel en je resultaat dicht bij of onder de rode streep houdt. Anders zijn we over 30 jaar nog bezig.
    Gr
    Ruud
    [/quote]
    
    Op zich mee eens. Maar wat is de conclusie?
    1. Ze belazeren nog steeds de kluit?
    2. Of, die paniek, mede veroorzaakt door de te stringente mark-to-market boekhouding, was te extreem?
    
    

    1 is lastig. Ze maken gewoon gebruik van de mogelijkheden die aangereikt worden. Als de cijfers kloppen en de systematiek die deze winst heeft opgeleverd is helder dan belazeren ze de kluit niet.
    
    2. Nee, was niet te extreem. Eigenlijk kun je zeggen dat de mark-to-market boekhouding gelukkig al was ingevoerd. Anders had deze crisis nog veeeel verder uit de hand kunnen lopen voor de enorme verliezen aan de oppervlakte waren gekomen.
    
    Eigenlijk hebben we niks gedaan met de les die we geleerd hebben: De leverage van de grote banken is volledig uit de hand gelopen.
    
    Gr
    Ruud
12. [verwijderd] 9 augustus 2009 23:22

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    quote:

    HandeR schreef:

    @ mkznk:
    Nee, voor de zoveelste keer: geen fraude, wel schuiven in de tijd. Maar ooit moet een ieder met dubieuze leningen met de billen bloot. That's it.
    
    Wat wil je liever? Totale paniek en ineenstorting van de banken en het betalingsverkeer?
    Of meer geleidelijk verlies nemen? Met ook nog kans op herstel?
    
    Om vergelijkbare redenen was ik eind 2008 en begin dit jaar mordicus tegen het verkopen van aandelen door pensioenfondsen.
    

    Jij noetm het "schuiven in de tijd", ik noem het fraude.
    
    Als een gewoon bedrijf dit soort zaken met zijn boekhouding zou flikken dan is er niet 1 accountant die de boekhouding goedkeurt en ook de fiscus zal alles op z'n kop gaan zetten. net zoals jij en ik de Box 3 niet naar eigen goedbevinden mogen invullen.
    
    Banken mogen het blijkbaar wel.
    
    Banken die zelf hun broek niet kunnen ophouden horen gewoon exit te zijn. Ook geen "Bad Banks" van overheidswege want dat is belonen van wanprestatie maar "Good Banks" oprichten die de goede spullen naar marktwaarde overnemen en de oude bank de rotzooi laten houden.
    
    Oude bank gaat op de fles en dat is goed.
    
    Pech voor aandeelhouders en obligaties maar ze willen zo graag "vrije marktwerking" en "kapitalisme" dan moeten ze niet als een stelletje kleine kinderen gaan janken als het een keertje tegenzit.
    
    
13. [verwijderd] 9 augustus 2009 23:24

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    quote:

    Ruud100 schreef:

    Eigenlijk hebben we niks gedaan met de les die we geleerd hebben: De leverage van de grote banken is volledig uit de hand gelopen.
    
    Gr
    Ruud
    

    Juist!
    
    
14. Ruud100 10 augustus 2009 16:43

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    www.iexprofs.nl/profsnieuws/45549/Nie...
    
    # Talrijke media en blogs wijzen er op dat het banenrapport afgelopen vrijdag in de VS helemaal niet zo goed was, als op het eerst gezicht lijkt. De daling van het werkloosheidspercentage komt vooral doordat veel meer mensen de arbeidsmarkt hebben verlaten, dan dat er nou zoveel nieuwe banen zijn gecreëerd. Bespoke.com heeft prachtige grafieken.
    
    # “Terug naar de beurs?” kopt Elsevier deze week op de cover. “Aandelen zijn weer in trek. Is meeliften nog mogelijk? Vijf redenen om in te stappen”, staat eronder. Aanhangers van de voorpagina-indicator weten dan genoeg. Als media in chocoladeletters koppen dat de beurs zo goed of zo slecht draait, dan staat de markt meestal op een draaipunt, zeggen de lesboeken.
    
15. Ruud100 14 augustus 2009 20:56

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    US commercial and residential real estate datapoints still dismal
    Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Aug 14 18:34.
    
    It has been a poor weak for economic data in the US: retail sales were disappointing, while jobless claims ticked up. Is it any wonder US consumers still aren’t feeling particularly confident?
    
    In a word, no. And recent data from First American CoreLogic on the housing market and from IPD on US commercial property do little to suggest the US is at all close to righting its economic woes.
    
    Earlier this month, Deutsche Bank declared the number of US mortgage holders facing negative equity would hit 48 per cent — or 25m households — within two years. On Tuesday, Zillow.com made a more conservative estimate that 30 per cent of homeloans would be underwater by mid-2010.
    
    But what about current figures? According to data released by First American on Thursday, as of June 30 more than 15.2m US mortgages - or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties - were in a negative equity position.
    
    This is actually a slight decrease from the 32.5 per cent reported at the end of March, which the data provider said “reflects the recent flattening of monthly home price changes.”
    
    However, the most recent report also showed there were an additional 2.5m mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity.
    
    And according to First Logic, negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.
    
    Other stats from the report include (emphasis FT Alphaville’s):
    * The aggregate property value for loans in a negative equity position was $3,400bn, which represents the total property value at risk of default. In California, the aggregate value of homes that are in negative equity was $969bn, followed by Florida ($432bn), New Jersey ($146bn), Illinois ($146bn) and Arizona ($140bn). Los Angeles had over $310bn in aggregate property value in a negative equity position, followed by New York ($183bn), Miami ($152bn), Washington, DC ($149bn) and Chicago ($134bn).
    
    * three states account for roughly half of all mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position. Nevada (66 per cent) had the highest percentage with nearly two-thirds of mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position. In Arizona (51 per cent) and Florida (49 per cent), half of all mortgage borrowers were in a negative equity position. Michigan (48 per cent) and California (42 per cent) round out the top five states.
    
    First American’s chief economist Mark Fleming is cautiously optimistic:
    
    Given that negative equity did not increase this quarter and home prices declines are moderating or flattening, we may be at the peak of the negative equity cycle. However, until negative equity recedes and unemployment declines, mortgage risk will continue to be very elevated
    
    Still, whether home price declines are actually flattening is open to debate, and foreclosure activity - an important indicator of housing market health - hit a fresh record in July.
    
    RealtyTrac reported on Thursday that foreclosure filings rose 7 per cent from June and 32 per cent compared with the same period a year ago. One in every 355 US homes received a foreclosure notice in July, the online marketplace for foreclosure properties said.
    
    And foreclosures hurt house prices too. According to the National Association of Realtors, the uptick in foreclosure sales led to record 15.6 per cent decline in median home values in the second quarter versus the year before.
    
    Nor does the picture in the commercial property sector inspire confidence.
    
    The Investment Property Databank said on Friday that US real estate values fell by 17 per cent over the first six months of 2009.
    
    As IPD noted:
    
    Compared to last year’s IPD US Annual Property Index, which revealed an annual capital return of -12.2%, the first six months of 2009 has seen the pace of capital depreciation already far outstrip 2008’s entire decline.
    
    Green shoots? Not quite.
16. Ruud100 15 augustus 2009 12:07

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    Herstel in de VS aanstaande?
    
    Ik weet niet of dit als indicator voor de kooplust gebruikt kan worden maar ik vermoed op zijn minst een flinke correlatie met de consumetenbestedingen in de de VS in juli en augustus.
    
    Voorspellingen van dalingen met 3% tot 10% bij de uitgaven aan schoolspullen, toch niet iets waar je als eerste op bezuinigd. Al was het maar omdat de jeugd zich daar heftig tegen zal verzetten.
    
    Dit kan wel eens de voorbode zijn van dramatische consumentenbestedingen in de VS de komende maanden. Al was het alleen maar omdat sinds de cijfers bijgehouden worden er nog nooit sprake was van een daling.
    
    Gr
    Ruud
    
    www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/1...
    
    Retailers See Slowing Sales in Back-to-School Season
    
    By STEPHANIE ROSENBLOOM
    Published: August 14, 2009
    
    Halfway through the back-to-school shopping season, retail professionals are predicting the worst performance for stores in more than a decade, yet another sign that consumers are clinging to every dollar.
    
    Fears about the job market have resulted in sluggish customer traffic over the last few weeks, spurring the gloomy sales projections. Parents who do shop are aggressively trading down, informing status-conscious teenagers that notebooks from the dollar store or shirts from Costco will have to do this year.
    
    Stock analysts at Citigroup are predicting a decline in back-to-school sales for the first time since they began tracking the figures in 1995. They estimate August and September sales at stores open for at least a year — known as same-store sales — will fall 3 to 4 percent, compared with an increase of nearly 1 percent in the same period last year.
    
    The National Retail Federation, an industry group, expects the average family with school-age children to spend nearly 8 percent less this year than last. And ShopperTrak, a research company, predicted customer traffic would be down 10 percent from a year ago.
    
    “This is going to be the worst back-to-school season in many, many years,” said Craig F. Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, a retailing consultant firm.
    
    Many analysts consider the season to begin in mid-July; sales numbers for that month are out already, and they were poor. Same-stores sales fell 5 percent compared with last year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry group. Figures out this week from the government showed that overall retail sales in July were down 8.3 percent from the same month last year.
    
    Back-to-school sales in July were hurt because many states moved their sales tax holidays out of July and into August. This month, retail sales should get a lift from those tax holidays. Still, the council expects August same-store sales to decline 3.5 to 4 percent compared with last year.
    
    A report this week by IBISWorld, a research company, found that back-to-school spending would fall in nearly every category compared with last year: clothing, down 5.4 percent; footwear, down 4.4 percent; and electronics, down 1.8 percent. Sales of traditional school supplies like notebooks and pencils are expected to be about the same as last year.
    
    Retailers typically do some of their biggest business during the back-to-school shopping period, also considered to be an early predictor of the holiday shopping season. If the forecasts turn out to be right, this could be another tough holiday period.
17. Ruud100 15 augustus 2009 13:59

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    Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell
    
    by Ockham Research Staff on 13-08-2009
    
    We have to send a tip of the hat, to ultra popular finance blogger at Zerohedge.com for alerting us to the huge number of insiders who are selling off stock in their companies.
    
    We have noted this sort of activity over the last few months and it appears that corporate insiders are selling with increased fervor.
    In late April (Insiders Are Selling Into the Rally), insiders were selling at a rate of 8.3 times the amount that insiders were buying. When we revisited the issue about two months later in June (More Evidence of Skepticism from Insiders), insiders had become even more bearish as they were selling at a rate of 9 times for each insider buy.
    
    Now, we are nearly two months later and the ratio of sellers to buyers continues to expand. In the last week, corporate insiders sold 13.6 times more than insiders bought according to information compiled by Finviz. In terms of per transaction value, the sellers are being more aggressive than the buyers as well. Of course, this is not necessarily a sign that the market is about to falter. However, it is always interesting to see what the insiders are doing because they are some of the very most informed investors. Management may be sounding an optimistic tone on many conference calls, but actions speak louder than words. Clearly, the trends are suggesting that stocks are overbought right now, and insiders are lowering their exposure to risk.
    
    Interesting to note, that three of the ten insider buys from last week were from Bank of America (BAC) and Citi (C).
18. Ruud100 15 augustus 2009 21:10

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    The failure of Colonial is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund an estimated $2.8 billion and that of Community Bank of Nevada, $781.5 million; Union Bank, $61 million; Community Bank of Arizona, $25.5 million; and Dwelling House, $6.8 million.
    
    The 77 bank failures nationwide this year compare with 25 last year and three in 2007.
    
    As the economy has soured — with unemployment rising, home prices tumbling and loan defaults soaring — bank failures have cascaded and sapped billions out of the deposit insurance fund. It now stands at its lowest level since 1993, $13 billion as of the first quarter.
    
    While losses on home mortgages may be leveling off, delinquencies on commercial real estate loans remain a hot spot of potential trouble, FDIC officials say. If the recession deepens, defaults on the high-risk loans could spike. Many regional banks hold large numbers of them.
    
    The number of banks on the FDIC's list of problem institutions leaped to 305 in the first quarter — the highest number since 1994 during the savings and loan crisis — from 252 in the fourth quarter. The FDIC expects U.S. bank failures to cost the insurance fund around $70 billion through 2013.
    
    The May closing of struggling Florida thrift BankUnited FSB is expected to cost the insurance fund $4.9 billion, the second-largest hit since the financial crisis began. The costliest was the July 2008 seizure of big California lender IndyMac Bank, on which the insurance fund is estimated to have lost $10.7 billion.
    
    The largest U.S. bank failure ever also came last year: Seattle-based thrift Washington Mutual Inc. fell in September, with about $307 billion in assets. It was acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $1.9 billion in a deal brokered by the FDIC.
19. Ruud100 17 augustus 2009 20:17

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    Mortgage delinquencies up for 8th straight quarter
    By EILEEN AJ CONNELLY, AP Personal Finance Writer - Mon Aug 17
    
    CHICAGO – The number of people who were late making their mortgage payments shot up 53 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the same period in 2007, according to data provided by TransUnion LLC.
    
    The credit reporting agency said its database shows delinquencies — or the percentage of mortgage holders at least 60 days behind on payments, considered a precursor to foreclosure — jumped to 4.58 percent nationally, from 2.99 percent for the 2007 fourth quarter.
    
    That was 16 percent above the 3.96 percent rate seen in the third quarter, TransUnion said, and marked the eighth straight quarter that deliquency rates rose.
    
    "It's about what we were expecting," said Keith Carson, senior consultant in TransUnion's financial services group. But while not unexpected, the huge jump from last year was still "alarming," Carson said.
    
    TransUnion, best known for its consumer credit rating data, projects delinquency rates could reach as high as 8 percent by the end of the year. The company isn't predicting that the climate will improve until the middle of 2010.
    
    The states that have shown the highest delinquency and foreclosure rates remain the same. Florida is on top, with a 9.52 percent rate for the fourth quarter, while Nevada is second with 9.01 percent. Arizona came in at 6.93 percent and California right behind at 6.88 percent. Carson said there is a glut of homes in those states, which is combining with increasing economic woes and declining home values to keep the rates high.
    
    North Dakota, at 1.21 percent, remains the state with the lowest delinquency rate.
    
    The figures are culled from TransUnion Trend Data, which consists of 27 million consumer records randomly sampled each month from the credit reporting agency's national consumer credit database.
    
    While the government has launched efforts to stem foreclosures, those moves are not yet reflected in data, Carson said. Banks are also trying to work with consumers to reduce problematic mortgages, but falling home prices are feeding the problem, he said. "We do know from everything we've found out in the last year is that the primary driver on mortgage defaults is negative equity," he said. When homeowners owe more on their mortgages than the houses are worth, data show a higher likelihood that consumers will simply walk away, he said.
    
    California is the state with the highest average mortgage debt per borrower, at $356,421. West Virginia has the lowest, at $96,243.
    
    Lenders are trying to address some negative equity issues with refinancing, but Carson said data shows the rate of redefault on modified mortgages "has been very high, primarily because of negative equity."
20. Ruud100 17 augustus 2009 20:35

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    U.S. credit card defaults stabilize
    Reuters - Mon Aug 17
    
    NEW YORK (Reuters) – The rate of U.S. credit card defaults showed signs of stabilizing last month, an indication that American consumers are in better financial shape than feared despite job losses and the housing slump.
    
    Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) in a regulatory filing on Monday said credit card defaults dropped in July after several months of a steep deterioration.
    Bank of America, the bank with the highest default and delinquency rates among the top credit card issuers, said its charge-off rate -- debt the company believes it will never collect on -- inched down to 13.81 percent in July from 13.86 percent in June.
    
    "It just seems to bear out what we heard in the second-quarter calls, that things seem to be getting marginally better -- and I would stress marginally -- on the consumer side," Nancy Bush, founder of NAB Research, said of Bank of America.
    
    Even more encouraging was JPMorgan's report that defaults fell to 7.92 percent from 8.04 percent for second straight month, while Citigroup's default rate declined to 10.03 percent from 10.51 percent.
    
    Discover's charge-off rate fell to 8.43 percent from 8.75 percent. Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) bucked the trend, however, as its annualized net charge-off rate rose to 9.83 percent in July from 9.73 percent in June.
    
    Some analysts have attributed the recent slowdown in defaults to seasonal effects, as Americans use tax refunds to pay down debt, and predict bad-loan levels will keep rising until later this year or early 2010.
    
    "We should expect to see some weaker trends ahead. The key is how much worse it gets. So far this month, I don't think it is that bad," said Chris Brendler, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus.
    
    Credit card defaults usually track unemployment, which is expected to peak at more than 10 percent by year-end. It was at 9.4 percent in July.
21. Ruud100 17 augustus 2009 20:49

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    Mortgage deliquency rate hits all time high in 2Q
    Eileen Aj Connelly, Ap Personal Finance Writer – 5 mins ago
    
    NEW YORK – The delinquency rate on U.S. mortgage loans hit an all-time high in the second quarter, but the pace of growth for the rate slowed, a possible sign the mortgage crisis may be beginning to turn the corner.
    
    Data provided by credit reporting agency TransUnion shows the ratio of mortgage holders who are 60 days or more behind on their payments increased for the 10th straight quarter, to 5.81 percent nationwide for the three months ended June 30.
    
    That's up 65 percent, from 3.53 percent, in the 2008 second quarter.
    
    Deliquency of 60 days is considered a precursor to foreclosure, because of the difficulty homeowners would have coming up with two back payments to bring themselves current.
    
    While the deliquency rate hit a new high, however, the increase from the first quarter to the second was 11.3 percent. In the two prior quarters, the rate jumped nearly 16 percent.
    
    That slowdown may be a good sign, said FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services division. "We have reason to be cautiously optimistic," he said.
    
    While there's no way to know exactly why the pace of growth is slowing, Guarrera said, it appears that programs aimed at helping distressed homeowners from both the government and mortgage lenders are beginning to help. In addition, he said, consumers are being more careful with their spending.
    
    For the second quarter, Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California remained the four states with the highest deliquency rates, mirroring the locations where foreclosures are the highest. Nevada's deliquency rate spiked to 13.8 percent, from 11.6 percent in the first quarter and 6.63 percent in the 2008 second quarter.
    
    In Florida, the delinquency rate rose to 12.3 percent, from 11 percent in the first quarter, and 6.47 percent in the 2008 second quarter.
    
    TransUnion culls its database of 27 million consumer records to produce the statistics.
    
    North Dakota and South Dakota remained the states with the lowest deliquency rates. North Dakota's rate actually edged down a hundreth of a percent, to 1.5 percent. Ohio, Idaho and Connecticut also saw decreases from the first quarter to the second.
    
    Guarrera saw particular importance in the statistics for Ohio, where deliquency edged down to 4.57 percent from 4.58 percent in the first quarter.
    
    The Ohio rate remains up substantially from the 2008 second quarter, when it stood at 3.77 percent, but the quarter-over-quarter decline, while small, was significant, he said.
    
    "I believe this is a precursor to recovery," Guarrera stated, noting that the recession was felt first in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states. "We see this as a really good sign."
    
    Not all of the news was positive, Wyoming and Utah, two states that have been far from the center of the foreclosure crisis, saw their deliquency rates jump the most, to 2.85 percent and 4.68 percent, respectively. Guarrera noted both states has a small populations, so results can be skewed by small changes.
    
    TransUnion still expects the mortgage deliquency rate to keep rising, but now expects the national rate to top out just under 7 percent around the end of the year. That's a slight revision from earlier in the year, when the company predicted the rate would go past that mark.
    
    Nevertheless, it's going to take about a year before the rates start to fall across most of the country, Guarrera said, and it will be quite some time before the national rate returns to its historic norm between 1.5 percent and 2 percent. "Forecasts are telling us that the recovery will be slow," he said.
    
    (This version CORRECTS the previous version which reported data from the fourth quarter of 2008.)