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Goed nieuws, of toch niet?

122 Posts
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  1. Ruud100 1 september 2009
    Centrale Banken
    ‘Riksbank’ hanteert negatieve rente
    Zweedse banken betalen stalgeld als ze niets uitlenen

    Door: Tjeerd Wiersma
    Gepubliceerd: vandaag 23:35

    Banken die geld stallen bij de Zweedse centrale bank moeten daar sinds kort voor betalen. De centrale bank hanteert een negatieve rente.

    Op sommige plekken in de wereld slaat daarom de angst toe dat hetzelfde staat te gebeuren als al tien jaar het geval is in Japan: praktisch geen economische groei meer, weinig investeringen, deflatie, etc.

    Het grote probleem waar overheden nu tegen aanlopen is dat, ondanks de gigantische leningen die zijn verstrekt aan financiële instellingen en de miljarden die wereldwijd in de economie zijn gepompt, er economisch feitelijk weinig veranderd is.

    Beschuldigd

    Waar de banken eerst al werden beschuldigd van het in gang zetten van de crisis door het verpakken en doorverkopen van rommelkredieten, en vervolgens van het geven van gigantische bonussen in crisistijd, zijn ze volgens kenners ook nu weer de oorzaak van het probleem. Ze willen namelijk geen leningen verstrekken aan bedrijven omdat het risico op wanbetaling te groot zou zijn.

    In Zweden denken ze daar nu iets op gevonden te hebben. De Zweedse ‘Riksbank’, de oudste centrale bank ter wereld, heeft onlangs een spectaculaire en unieke stap genomen: het verlagen van de rente naar -0,25 procent. Inderdaad, u leest het goed: de Zweden hanteren sinds kort een negatieve rente. Gevolg van die maatregel is dat een bank die zijn reserves parkeert bij de centrale bank niet langer rente krijgt op dat geld, maar juist ‘stalgeld’ moet betalen.

    Op die manier hoopt de Zweedse ‘Riksbank’ dat banken niet langer op hun poen blijven zitten maar het uitlenen aan bedrijven en burgers, zodat de opbrengst van de lening hoger is dan de kosten die een bank nu moet dragen voor het stalgeld. Het is nog te vroeg om te zeggen of de tactiek van de Zweden ook werkt, maar zoals wel vaker in de financiële wereld: als er een schaap over de dam is, volgen er spoedig meer. Met andere woorden: als het hanteren van een negatieve rente in Zweden werkt en daardoor de bedrijfskredieten en leningen aan consumenten en bedrijven weer op gang komen, dan zou dat voorbeeld wel eens gevolgd kunnen worden door andere landen.

    Extreem

    De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) heeft het programma om de geldstromen weer op gang te brengen enorm uitgebreid, maar van de honderden miljarden euro’s die toegekend zijn, is ongeveer de helft teruggevloeid naar de centrale bank. Dat betekent dat de maatregel weinig effect heeft. En dat klopt volgens macro-economen niet. Het is namelijk niet de bedoeling dat banken geld opnemen bij de Europese centrale bank om dat geld vervolgens weer op een ‘spaarrekening’ te plaatsen bij de ECB.

    Het kan dus zijn dat er nog verregaandere maatregelen nodig zijn om de kredietverstrekking in Europa weer op gang te krijgen. Het rekenen van een negatieve rente kan een bijkomende stimulans geven en banken dwingen alsnog geld uit te lenen. In Zweden denken ze in ieder geval dat deze extreme maatregel wel eens zou kunnen werken.
  2. Ruud100 1 september 2009 22:11

    Unemployment Rises Everywhere. El Centro, Calif., Hits 30.2 Percent

    September 1, 2009
    By Laura Conaway

    Unemployment has kept on growing in every one of the nation's 372 metropolitan areas, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Unemployment was higher in July 2009 in each metro than at this time last year.

    Of the 19 metros where joblessness tops 15 percent, California lays claim to eight. God bless El Centro, Calif., which has the highest unemployment at 30.2 percent. Another five of the most miserable metros are in Michigan.

    At the other end of the scale are Washington, D.C., at 6.2 percent, and Oklahoma City at 5.9 percent.

    The jump from this year to last year happened in Greater Detroit, with 8.4 percent. Next up were Bend, Ore., with 7.1 percent and Elkhart County, Ind., at 7 points. The only places where joblessness grew by less than a point were Bismarck and Grand Forks, N.D.

    The national unemployment rate dipped by 0.1 percent to 9.4 percent in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the August figure on Friday.
  3. [verwijderd] 2 september 2009 08:33
    www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601...

    Eerst gaven consumenten en bedrijven geld uit wat ze misschien nooit zouden kunnen terug betalen.
    We weten hoe dat geeindigd is.

    Nu geven alle overheden geld van de consument uit,wat met de huidige geldwaarde nooit terug te betalen is.(ook de armste landen)

    Dit belooft niet veel goeds voor de toekomst.....
  4. Ruud100 2 september 2009 22:40
    Bizar?

    Of niet?

    www.hermitage.nl/nl/sponsors/#
    Fortis Bank Nederland is er trots op hoofdsponsor te kunnen zijn van de Hermitage Amsterdam. Een uniek museum op een unieke plaats in Amsterdam. Prachtig cultureel erfgoed heeft een nieuwe bestemming gekregen met internationale allure.
    Jan van Rutte, voorzitter Raad van Bestuur Fortis Bank

    AT5 teletekst:
    woensdag 02 september 2009 13:16
    Gemeente helpt Hermitage overleven

    Museum de Hermitage kampt tijdelijk met een geldprobleem omdat de recente verbouwing duurder is uitgepakt, meldt het Parool.

    De bouwwerkzaamheden kosten uiteindelijk 42 miljoen euro in plaats van de verwachte 40 miljoen. Daardoor heeft het drukbezochte museum zowaar acuut een geldprobleem. Fortis, de bank achter de lening voor de verbouwing, wil het tekort van twee miljoen niet financieren. Ook de gemeente weigert een eenmalige lening maar brengt wel uitkomst. Via een verhoging van de garantstelling zal Fortis alsnog de lening verhogen.
  5. Ruud100 3 september 2009 22:49

    Retail sales fall in August, but drops are easing

    NEW YORK – Shoppers limited their back-to-school purchases and stayed focused on necessities in August, resulting in the 12th straight month of declining sales for retailers. But there were signs the holiday season could be less dismal than feared.

    Despite the weakness many reported, retailers overall did better in August than analysts expected. Some lower-priced chains, such as TJMaxx and Old Navy, even saw sales rise compared with a year earlier, though upscale stores' sales slipped.

    "It does seem like the consumer is willing to spend if given a great deal," said Carl Steidtmann, an economist at Deloitte Research. "That reflects a consumer that is slowly coming out of their bunker."

    "It's still weak in the broad trend, but it is considerably stronger than it has been in some time," said Michael Niemira, International Council of Shopping Centers' chief economist.

    ShopperTrak RCT, a Chicago-based research company that tracks customer traffic at more than 45,000 stores, said foot traffic figures for back-to-school are in line with its forecast of a 10 percent drop from last year.

    The better-than-expected sales results eased some analysts' concern that the holiday season will be as bad as last year.

    "The core issue here is pent-up demand; that's what we'll be talking about this holiday season," Niemira said. "I think August is the start of this transition to better times for the industry."

    Discounters performed best as consumers remained focused on bargains. Target Corp.'s sales at established stores dropped 2.9 percent, better than the 5.1 percent drop analysts expected. The 5 percent increase at TJX Cos., which operates Marshall's and TJMaxx, also beat expectations.

    Upscale retailer Saks Inc. reported a 19.6 percent drop, even larger than analysts expected. And department stores overall remained weak. Macy's Inc. reported an 8.1 percent decline in sales at established stores.

    Gap Inc. reported lower sales but beat expectations, boosted by its low-priced Old Navy chain.

    The teen sector was weak. The Buckle Inc., which has been doing better than others in the sector, reported higher sales than a year ago but missed analyst expectations. And Abercrombie & Fitch Co., which has kept prices higher than most competitors, reported a 29 percent drop, bigger than expected.

    Aeropostale Inc., which has outperformed competitors by focusing on low prices, reported higher sales than analysts predicted.

    Heading into fall, stores have ordered less inventory to decrease the likelihood of markdowns. But some now worry that strategy may hurt retailers if consumer demand increases.

    Arnold Aronson, managing director of retail strategies at consulting firm Kurt Salmon Associates, said clothing stores cut their orders 10 percent to 20 percent for this fall, and he expects the trimming to continue at least through spring.

    He said their ordering will even be "out of whack" with consumer demand, but stores would rather lose a little business than be stuck with piles of merchandise they must discount.

    That's what happened last holiday season, when retailers ended up slashing prices 70 percent or more.

    Ken Perkins, president of retail consulting firm Retail Metrics, sees no such "disaster" coming this year. "It's not going to be 'Nightmare on Elm Street 2' for these guys," he said.
  6. Ruud100 5 september 2009 15:23
    Begrotingsminister: België virtueel failliet

    Gepubliceerd: vandaag 10:36

    De Belgische minister van Begroting, Guy Vanhengel, zegt dat België virtueel failliet is. ,,Het is niet vijf voor twaalf, maar vijf over twaalf. Hoe langer we wachten, hoe erger het wordt'', aldus de minister zaterdag in de Vlaamse krant De Standaard.

    België kampt met een begrotingstekort van zo'n 25 miljard euro. Dat komt neer op zo'n 7 procent van het bruto binnenlands product: ver boven de EU-limiet van 3 procent.

    De regering is van plan een heffing op te leggen op BNP Paribas, Dexia en andere banken die het moest redden bij de kredietcrisis vorig jaar. ,,Iedereen moet inspanningen doen. Zowel de banken als de gezondheidszorg'', zegt Vanhengel.

    Hij zinspeelt op belastingverhogingen en forse bezuinigingen. Zijn collega-ministers heeft hij gemeld dat ,,ze het idee uit hun kop moeten zetten dat er nog middelen zijn voor nieuwe ideeën.''
  7. Ruud100 5 september 2009 15:43
    Construction Loans Falter, a Bad Omen for Banks

    By FLOYD NORRIS
    Published: September 4, 2009

    EVEN as the economy may be starting to recover, banks across the country are confronting a worsening outlook for their construction loans, an area that boomed for much of the decade.

    Reports filed by banks with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation indicate that at the end of June about one-sixth of all construction loans were in trouble. With more than half a trillion dollars in such loans outstanding, that represents a source of major losses for banks.

    The problems now extend well beyond loans for the construction of single-family homes, where banks have been taking losses and cutting back their commitments for a couple of years.

    It is in commercial real estate construction — be it stores or office buildings — that the pain seems likely to rise. At the end of June, $291 billion in such loans was outstanding, down only a few billion from the peak reached earlier this year.

    Foresight estimates that 10.4 percent of commercial construction loans are troubled, but expects that to increase as the year goes on.

    The definition of troubled loans used in the accompanying charts includes loans that are at least 30 days past due, as well as those on which the bank identified problems that led it to stop assuming that interest on the loans would be paid.

    The reports that banks file with the F.D.I.C. do not include details on all types of construction loans, nor on where the construction is.

    Foresight estimates the biggest problems are in loans for condominium construction, with 38 percent of all construction loans troubled. Mr. Anderson says even that might be an understatement. He pointed to Corus Bank, a Chicago institution that specialized in condo loans. Its latest report shows that its capital is gone and that it expects losses on two-thirds of its construction loans.

    A version of this article appeared in print on September 5, 2009, on page B3 of the New York edition.
  8. Ruud100 5 september 2009 16:51
    Recovery difficult as jobless rate hits 9.7 pct
    AP
    By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writer Christopher S. Rugaber, Ap Economics Writer – Fri Sep 4, 5:59 pm ET

    WASHINGTON – At least it's not all bad anymore.
    The nation's unemployment rate climbed last month to 9.7 percent — the highest in nearly a generation — but the number of job losses was less than expected and the smallest monthly total in a year.

    "It's good to see the rate of job losses slow down," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. But with unemployment rising, "there isn't the underlying fuel there for strong consumer spending growth," which is vital for a strong recovery.

    Employers shed 216,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday. That was 9,000 fewer than expected but a far cry from the job creation required to rejuvenate the economy: about 125,000 new jobs each month just to keep the unemployment rate from increasing.

    The unemployment rate rose three-tenths of a percentage point since July, reaching its highest level since 1983, when it was 10.1 percent. Economists predict that the jobless rate will peak above 10 percent by the middle of next year.

    At the same time, many analysts say the economy should grow by a healthy 3 to 4 percent in the third quarter, pulling the United States out of the longest recession since World War II.

    Most of that improvement, though, stems from auto companies and other manufacturers refilling their depleted stockpiles. Those inventories had plummeted as factories and retailers sought to bring goods more in line with reduced sales during the recession. Without stepped-up demand from consumers, any current economy growth might not last.

    The Obama administration's $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased spending contributed to the improvement, along with the popular Cash for Clunkers program. The clunkers program provided up to $4,500 in rebates to consumers who traded in old gas-guzzlers for newer models.

    An $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers has also helped boost housing sales and stabilize prices, after years of declines.

    Yet economists worry that none of that will be enough to sustain an economic recovery once the government's efforts fade. As job losses persist and the unemployment rate climbs, even people with jobs will remain anxious about losing them and about spending too much.

    Some economists even fear a so-called "double-dip" recession, which would cause the economy to shrink again next year.

    For now, the August unemployment report sketched a bleak portrait of the job market. The number of jobless Americans jumped by nearly 500,000 to 14.9 million.

    If laid-off workers who have settled for part-time work or given up seeking jobs are included, the so-called underemployment rate hit 16.8 percent last month. That's the highest such rate on records dating to 1994.
  9. Ruud100 5 september 2009 20:51
    Fed must not leave rates too low: Hoenig
    Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. central bank must resist popular pressure to keep interest rates too low as the economy recovers, according to a top Federal Reserve official.

    Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig, in remarks at a private meeting last month that were released on Saturday, also said that top U.S. banks were still too highly leveraged, and would evade demands to raise more capital.

    "As we become more confident that we are at the bottom of the recession and are moving into recovery, we must become more resolute in systematically reducing our balance sheet and raising interest rates," Hoenig told the annual meeting of the Kansas Bankers Association on August 6.

    The Fed has cut interest rates to almost zero and doubled its balance sheet to around $2 trillion to keep credit markets from seizing in panic after investment bank Lehman Brothers failed last September amid massive losses on mortgage debt.

    "Moving from zero to one percent, for example, is not a tight policy. I don't know what the neutral rate is, but I am certain it isn't zero," Hoenig said.

    Hoenig, who is regarded as one of the Fed's most hawkish, or anti-inflation officials, will be a voting member of its policy-setting committee next year.

    "We are carrying more debt than we have carried in most of our history, and the pressure to keep rates low is only going to increase as the economy begins to recover," he said.

    Hoenig's speech was on the implications of leverage and debt. He said that the country's 20 largest banks had far less equity capital than their smaller rivals, controlling $12 trillion in assets but supported by just 3.5 percent of equity capital versus 6 percent for the next 20 largest firms.

    "Some proposals being offered would require large institutions to hold more than this level of capital," he said, referring to the 6 percent threshold. "I would suggest such proposals are wishful thinking and will not be achieved."
  10. Ruud100 6 september 2009 14:36
    Stock rally may be too much too soon: analysts
    by Frederique Pris Frederique Pris – Sun Sep 6, 1:30 am ET

    PARIS (AFP) – Global stock markets may have rallied too far too fast over the last five months as they bounce back from a panic plunge provoked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank a year ago, analysts warn.

    Stock markets, already in retreat from the bursting of the US subprime home loan bubble, were thrown into panic when the fall of Lehman Brothers turned a financial crisis into a threat of systemic failure in leading economies.

    Leading markets climbed back from the depths in March and April, and then in July and August rallied strongly again, recovering much of the ground lost over 12 months.

    But in the last few days they have faltered because of doubts about the underlying dynamics of signs that leading economies are pulling out of recession.

    On Wall Street, losses since September 15 when Lehman Brothers collapsed have been reduced to 18 percent, in London to 10 percent, Tokyo 16 percent and Paris 15 percent. The main stock index in Shanghai has jumped by 37 percent.

    But these rebounds still leave stock indices far below the high levels attained before the bursting of the subprime bubble marked the beginning of the crisis in August 2007.

    "With Lehman, markets factored the end of the world into the price of shares, because the improbable had occurred," said a senior manager at EFG Asset Management in Paris, David Kalfon.

    Since March, when stocks reached a low point, "the markets have realised that it was not the end of the world and this relief has pulled them upwards."

    At Turgot Asset Management in Paris, Arnaud de Champvallier said: "The 2009 second-quarter results of many companies and the economic indicators in recent weeks have been better than expected, and this explains the rise of stock markets."

    But he also observed: "They cannot go much further for now because the maximum possible gains have been drawn from these second-quarter results."

    The head of share portfolio management at Groupama Asset Management in Paris, Romain Boscher, commented: "The good news is that things are on the move again.

    "The bad side is that this is not on a solid basis. The economy is emerging from its torpor, but this is still very financial without extension to the labour market or industry."

    quote:

    schreef:

    Boscher said: "The stock market is certainly looking ahead. But here it is anticipating in the space of three or four months the next three or four years. It's excessive. The market is behaving as if everything is over although we have only avoided the Great Depression."

    Boscher, in common with the other analysts, highlighted the explosion of debt incurred by states which they said, at worst, could lead to a crash on the government bond market.

    The head of strategy at Societe Generale in London, Albert Edwards, was bluntly pessimistic, saying that stock and credit markets had experienced the biggest bubble in history, and it was not yet over.
    He said: "When I look at the 1930s, there were periods when growth improved: at the end of 1929 and then in 1931, but the market collapsed again."

    He warned that "the rise since March has just been a very large blip which will unwind."

    However some of these experts argue that the recovery is also evident in the volume of trading.

    From the summer of 2007 (in the northern hemisphere) to May 2009 investors and small shareholders switched funds from stocks to money markets. Since the end of June, there has been a reversal because interest available on money markets is close to zero.

    However, the switch back is gradual. "Some people have been traumatised on stock markets, losing up to 50 percent of their savings invested in shares," Kalfon said. "It will take time for them to regain confidence."

    But Boscher also remarked: "Investors have a short memory and the lure of gains is universal."
  11. Ruud100 8 september 2009 21:15

    Credit card losses seen up, staying high
    Reuters 1 hr 15 mins ago

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Standard & Poor's said on Tuesday U.S. credit card losses declined in July, but forecast bad loans would soon resume their upward trend as thousands of Americans lose their jobs.

    The ratings agency's credit card quality index, which measures credit card loans that banks do not expect to be repaid, fell to 9.8 percent in July from a record high of 10.4 percent in June, helped by more cautious consumer spending.

    Analysts have also said loan losses eased as consumers used more tax refunds to pay down debts.

    But S&P estimated credit card losses would pick up again as the economy continues to shed thousands of jobs every month in the worst recession since the Great Depression.

    Credit card losses usually follow unemployment, which rose to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent in August.

    S&P said that, considering its own estimates that unemployment would rise to between 10.4 percent and 12.7 percent, credit card losses rates could go up to between 10.5 percent and 13 percent and "remain in this range for the next 12 to 24 months."

    S&P said losses could also be boosted by company moves to increase fees and interest rates before limits on those charges come into effect in February 2010.

    In aggregate, S&P's credit card quality index tracks the performance of more than $491.1 billion of receivables held in trusts of rated U.S. credit card-backed securities.
  12. Ruud100 8 september 2009 22:21
    Dit is wat ons vandaag voorgehouden is, en als je even doorleest kun je je afvragen waardoor de VS op die tweede plaats staat:

    Concurrentiepositie Nederland verslechtert door kredietcrisis

    AMSTERDAM - De financiële crisis heeft de concurrentiepositie van Nederland behoorlijk verzwakt. Ons land is mede daardoor in de mondiale concurrentie-index twee plekken teruggezakt naar plaats tien. Dat blijkt uit het jongste onderzoek van het World Economic Forum (WEF), dat elk jaar wordt gepubliceerd.

    Zwitserland, dat de mondiale koppositie heeft overgenomen van de Verenigde Staten, heeft ondanks de financiële crisis, de concurrentievermogen juist kunnen versterken door 'verhoogde inzet op innovatie'.

    En dit is volgens mij het echte nieuws achter bovenstaand bericht:

    WEF ranks US among most economically unstable nations

    GENEVA (AFP) – The United States fared badly in a new assessment of world economies, with the financial crisis accentuating its weakness as one of the most economically unstable nations, the World Economic Forum said Tuesday.

    In contrast with its overall ranking second only to Switzerland in the WEF's 2009 Global Competitiveness Report, the United States now placed 93rd among the 133 countries in terms of macroeconomic stability.

    "The United States has built up large macro-economic imbalances over recent years," said the WEF, which hosts the annual Davos pow-wow of business and political leaders.

    "Repeated fiscal deficits have led to burgeoning levels of public indebtedness, which are presently being exacerbated by significant stimulus spending," it added.

    The widening government budget deficit and low national savings rates helped drag the United States down.

    The White House has projected that its budget deficit would reach 9.05 trillion dollars for the 2010-2019 period.

    But the United States is not only grappling with a state deficit, its citizens also hold too much debt and insufficient savings, according to analysts.

    In the years leading up to the financial crisis, the country's national savings rate had dropped to almost zero.

    "More generally, given that the financial crisis originated in large part in the United States, it is hardly surprising that there has been a weakening of the assessment of its financial market sophistication, dropping from ninth last year to 20th overall this year in that pillar," said the WEF.

    The United States also scored badly for the soundness of its banks, in 108th place, just ahead of Venezuela, Serbia and Vietnam.

    Like the United States, the banking industries of Britain, Ireland and Iceland brought up the rear, as their financial centres all suffered in the crisis.

    Iceland's banks were ranked the fourth most unsound, rivalled only by Zimbabwe, Mongolia and Ukraine, while Britain was the ninth from last and Ireland the 13th worst.

    While major Swiss banks also suffered in the economic crisis, Switzerland managed to come out top overall, overtaking the United States to lead the global competitiveness chart this year.

    Researchers found that Switzerland had remained "relatively stable, whereas the United States has seen a weakening across a number of areas."

    Singapore moved up to third place from fifth a year ago, helped by strong government institutions, infrastructure and a focus on education.

    Among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) emerging giants, China performed best, gaining one place to 29th place. It remained 20 places ahead of India, thanks to its strong fiscal position.
  13. Ruud100 9 september 2009 22:33
    Buyers of Huge Manhattan Complex Face Default Risk
    Published: September 9, 2009

    Three years ago, the sale of the 110 red brick apartment buildings at Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village in Manhattan amounted to the biggest American real estate deal in history.

    Now the buyers are running out of time and money. Jerry I. and Rob Speyer and their partner, BlackRock Realty, who together paid $5.4 billion for the quiet middle-class redoubt near the East River, have nearly exhausted an additional $890 million set aside for apartment renovations, landscaping and interest payments. Rents are down 25 percent from their peak.

    Real estate analysts say that the partnership’s money will run out as soon as December and that the owners are at “high risk” of default on $4.4 billion in loans. Two real estate executives who have been briefed on the finances insist that the owners can hold out, but only until February.

    On Thursday, the partnership will go before the Court of Appeals in Albany to try to overturn a lower court decision that could force them to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in rent rebates to thousands of tenants.

    Regardless of the outcome at the Court of Appeals, Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village are in trouble. City officials have been monitoring the looming crisis, worried that the financial problems could eventually lead to default, deferred maintenance and disinvestment at a complex that has served as an oasis of affordability in Manhattan for middle-class New Yorkers. Some 6,875 of the 11,227 apartments at the two adjoining complexes are rent regulated.

    Rob Speyer, who is co-chief executive of Tishman Speyer Properties with his father, Jerry, acknowledged the problem, saying that it went beyond the need for a cash infusion from the partners and their investors, which include Calpers, the giant California pension fund that is the nation’s largest, as well as other pension funds.

    “The asset is going to require a restructuring,” he said. “Once the court case is resolved, we’ll speak to our debt holders as well as our fellow equity investors.”

    But between the $5.4 billion purchase price and four “reserve funds” with $890 million, Tishman Speyer and BlackRock spent $6.3 billion acquiring Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village from the original owner, Metropolitan Life.

    The deal has become a “poster child” for all that was wrong with that era of easy credit, highly speculative deals and greed, said Ben Thypin, an analyst at Real Capital Analytics, a research firm.

    A recent report from Realpoint, a credit rating agency, estimates that the property has a value today of only $2.13 billion — less than half of what the partnership borrowed to buy it.

    The Stuyvesant Town travail has put a dent in the armor of Tishman Speyer, a real estate company that zealously protects its image as the preferred caretaker for the city’s crown jewels: Rockefeller Center, the Chrysler Building and the Met Life Building on Park Avenue. Indeed, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said as much in response to criticism when they bought Stuyvesant Town that the city should have supported a rival $4 billion bid from tenants.

    Like other developers and real estate managers, Tishman Speyer has been left holding a couple of sour deals now that the real estate and credit markets have collapsed. A partnership led by the Speyers defaulted recently on debt payments for its $2.8 billion acquisition of CarrAmerica, a collection of 28 prime office buildings in Washington.

    Its $22 billion purchase of Archstone-Smith Trust, a vast collection of 400 apartment complexes, has also fared poorly. Earlier this year, the banks that financed the deal were forced to pour in another $500 million to give Archstone more time to sell properties and reduce its debt. Tishman Speyer, whose investment fund invested $250 million in the deal expecting to get 13 percent of the profits, declined to participate. Its 1 percent stake was reduced substantially.

    Rob Speyer said that in both cases the properties have “a lot of long-term value.” But the bad deals also represent only a fraction of the $35 billion in real estate assets that it owns or manages in the United States, India, China and Brazil. At the top of the market, he said the company also sold $10 billion worth of property over six months in 2007, including the former New York Times Building in Manhattan, which went for $525 million, three times what it paid less than three years earlier.

    Despite several bad deals, the Speyers insist their company is still providing investors with “20 percent returns” and has $2 billion to invest in new deals. “You show me anybody who measured up to that standard,” Jerry Speyer said.

    At Stuyvesant Town, there is a $3 billion first mortgage, or commercial mortgage-backed security, and a $1.4 billion second loan, known as “mezzanine debt” held by SL Green, the government of Singapore and others.

    Finally, there is $1.9 billion in equity put up by Tishman Speyer, BlackRock and their investors. Tishman Speyer, which generally earns development and management fees from the properties, has about $56 million of its own money in the deal.

    “I’d say their equity has been wiped out,” said Craig Leupold, president of Green Street Advisors, “given the decline in apartment values.”
  14. Ruud100 9 september 2009 22:43
    Mortgage delinquency rates for commercial properties jump

    WASHINGTON (AFP) – Mortgage delinquency on US commercial real estate jumped in the second quarter of the year as problems deepened in the nonresidential sector, a survey showed Wednesday.

    The delinquency rate on loans for 30 days or more held in commercial mortgage-backed securities rose 2.04 percentage points to 3.89 percent between the first and second quarters, said a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

    Delinquency on loans for 60 days or more held in life insurance company portfolios rose 0.03 percentage points to 0.15 percent while that on multifamily loans held or insured by mortgage finance company Fannie Mae rose 0.17 percentage points to 0.51 percent.

    The rate on multifamily loans for 90 days or more held or insured by Fannie Mae's twin lender Freddie Mac rose 0.02 percentage points to 0.11 percent while that on loans held by US authorities-insured banks and thrifts rose 0.64 percentage points to 2.92 percent.

    "The economic fallout of the recession continued to push commercial and multifamily delinquency rates higher during the second quarter," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's vice president of commercial real estate research.

    "Lower levels of employment, the pullback by consumers and other aspects of the slowdown translated into a difficult operating environment for many income-producing properties," Woodwell said.

    "That in turn has led to increased stress on the loans those properties support."

    The commercial property sector took a hard knock after a home mortage meltdown triggered the biggest financial crisis in decades last year and plunged the world's largest economy into recession.
  15. Ruud100 9 september 2009 22:53
    Taxpayers face heavy losses on auto bailout
    AP

    WASHINGTON – Taxpayers face losses on a significant portion of the $81 billion in government aid provided to the auto industry, an oversight panel said in a report to be released Wednesday.

    The Congressional Oversight Panel did not provide an estimate of the projected loss in its latest monthly report on the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. But it said most of the $23 billion initially provided to General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC late last year is unlikely to be repaid.

    "I think they drove a very hard bargain," said Elizabeth Warren, the panel's chairwoman and a law professor at Harvard University, referring to the Obama administration's Treasury Department. "But it may not be enough."

    The prospect of recovering the government's assistance to GM and Chrysler is heavily dependent on shares of the two companies rising to unprecedented levels, the report said. The government owns 10 percent of Chrysler and 61 percent of GM. The two companies are currently private but are expected to issue stock, in GM's case by next year.

    The shares "will have to appreciate sharply" for taxpayers to get their money back, the report said.

    For example, GM's market value would have to reach $67.6 billion, the report said, a "highly optimistic" estimate and more than the $57.2 billion GM was worth at the height of its share value in April 2008. And in the case of Chrysler, about $5.4 billion of the $14.3 billion provided to the company is "highly unlikely" to ever be repaid, the panel said.

    Treasury Department officials have acknowledged that most of the $23 billion provided by the Bush administration is likely to be lost. But Meg Reilly, a department spokeswoman, said there is a "reasonably high probability of the return of most or all of the government funding" that was provided to assist GM and Chrysler with their restructurings.

    Administration officials have previously said they want to maximize taxpayers' return on the investment but want to dispose of the government's ownership interests as soon as practicable.

    "We are not trying to be Warren Buffett here. We are not trying to squeeze every last dollar out," Steve Rattner, who led the administration's auto task force, said before his departure in July. "We do want to do well for the taxpayers but the most important thing is to get the government out of the car business."

    Greg Martin, a spokesman for the new GM, said the company is "confident that we will repay our nation's support because we are a company with less debt, a stronger balance sheet, a winning product portfolio and the right size to match today's market realities."

    The Congressional Oversight Panel was created as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. It is designed to provide an additional layer of oversight, beyond the Special Inspector General for the TARP and regular audits by the Government Accountability Office.

    The panel's report recommends that the Treasury Department consider placing its auto company holdings into an independent trust, to avoid any "conflicts of interest."

    The report also recommends the department perform a legal analysis of its decision to provide TARP funds to GM and Chrysler, their financing arms and many auto parts suppliers. Some critics say the law creating TARP didn't allow for such funding.

    The panel's members include Rep. Jeb Hensarling, a Texas Republican, who dissented from the report. Hensarling said the auto companies should never have received funding and criticized the government for picking "winners and losers."

    Other agencies have also projected large losses on the loans and investments provided to the industry. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in June that taxpayers would lose about $40 billion of the first $55 billion in aid.
  16. Ruud100 10 september 2009 22:00
    Yeah, de consument in de VS gaat de wereldeconomie uit het dal trekken.
    Door flink met dollars te gaan smijten.

    Alleen wordt het wel de vraag van wie hij die extra dollars dan moet lenen, want in zijn loonzakje zitten ze niet.....

    Gr
    Ruud

    A Decade With No Income Gains
    By David Leonhardt
    September 10, 2009, 11:52 am

    The typical American household made less money last year than the typical household made a full decade ago.

    To me, that’s the big news from the Census Bureau’s annual report on income, poverty and health insurance, which was released this morning. Median household fell to $50,303 last year, from $52,163 in 2007. In 1998, median income was $51,295. All these numbers are adjusted for inflation.

    In the four decades that the Census Bureau has been tracking household income, there has never before been a full decade in which median income failed to rise. (The previous record was seven years, ending in 1985.) Other Census data suggest that it also never happened between the late 1940s and the late 1960s.

    And the streak probably won’t end in 2009, either. Unemployment has been rising all year, which is a strong sign income will fall.

    What’s going on here? It’s a combination of two trends. One, economic growth in the current decade has been slower than in any decade since before World War II. Two, inequality has risen sharply, so much of the bounty from our growth has gone to a relatively small slice of the population.
  17. Ruud100 10 september 2009 23:01

    Mogelijk kan komend weekend de financiele brandweer in de VS weer uitrukken voor een grote, uitslaande brand.

    Gr
    Ruud

    In Florida, Vestiges of the Boom

    By ERIC DASH
    Published: September 9, 2009

    On the corner of Flamingo Road and Pink Flamingo Lane, beyond the putting green, the crystalline lagoon and the Sawgrass Mills mall, a soaring monument to the great condominium bust bakes under the Florida sun.

    The Tao Sawgrass, as the twin-towered complex is known, was built on the western fringes of Fort Lauderdale with easy money from the now tottering condo king of American finance: Corus Bancshares of Chicago. Only about 50 of the 396 units have been sold.

    The 26-story Tao — begun in 2006, just as the Florida real estate market imploded — is one of the many troubled condominium projects that have mired Corus in red ink and now threaten its survival. Federal authorities are racing to broker a sale of Corus to avert yet another costly banking collapse.

    After failing to find a buyer for the entire company, regulators are moving to cleave the bank in two and sell its banking operations and condominium loans separately. The hope is to clinch a deal by the end of the month.

    Whatever the outcome, Corus will go down as the great enabler of condo madness, and its travails are a harbinger of the pain yet to come in the troubled world of commercial real estate. More than any other condo lender, Corus epitomized the easy lending and lax oversight of the go-go years — and the pain of the ensuing bust. Its share price, which was nearly $13 in February of 2008, has plummeted into the land of penny stocks, closing at 25 cents Wednesday.

    Corus barreled into hot markets like California, Florida and Nevada and then kept lending as those markets boiled over. Rather than diversify, it concentrated its lending bets by financing only a handful of big, risky projects. And it poured its idle cash into a small group of other banks and financial companies that were upended when the crisis struck.

    The primary regulator of Corus, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, failed to sound the alarm until Corus was deeply troubled.

    “They are the perfect analogy of a boom-bust bank,” said Jack McCabe. Corus executives, he said, behaved more like property speculators than bankers.

    The failure of Corus would cost an already strained Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation billions. It would also underscore the wave of troubled commercial real estate loans now threatening to crash down on much of the American banking industry. Construction and land loans are now the biggest problem for hundreds of deeply troubled lenders and pose far greater dangers than commercial loans or home mortgages, according to Foresight Analytics, a banking industry research firm.

    Many analysts see trouble ahead.

    “The first big wave of losses for the banks were on loans to home builders and condo developers in once hot markets,” said Andrew McGee, a consultant at Oliver Wyman in New York. “Banks now are worried that office buildings, hotels and malls in areas hardest hit by the downturn are going bad too.”

    Corus was not always so condo crazy. In 1984, Robert J. Glickman took over from his father and began transforming the bank into a powerhouse in construction loans. Corus shut its student lending business, its trust operations and all but a handful of its Chicago area branches. It began catering to condo developers across the nation, offering developers quick loan approvals and attractive interest rates. Its assets reached nearly $10 billion in 2006. But almost all the loans were tied to the condo market, and nearly 40 percent were for more than $100 million.

    Then, of course, the bottom fell out. By late 2007, the share price of Corus was under attack on Wall Street. But Robert Glickman, whose family then controlled nearly half of Corus, rebuffed offers to sell the bank. Instead, Corus paid a special dividend that netted the Glickman family about $25 million, even though the payout ate into the bank’s reserves. By mid-2008, Corus was losing money and stopped making loans altogether.

    Finally, in early 2009, federal regulators ordered Corus to raise capital or put itself up for sale. It was unable to do either. In late June, the bank reported that its entire capital base had been wiped out. Since then, its auditors, Ernst & Young, have walked away, and Nasdaq has warned that it may delist Corus shares.

    Mr. Glickman and his father, the chairman of Corus, left the company in April and recently sold their remaining shares for pennies on the dollar.

    Corus officials did not return phone calls seeking comment.

    En uit andere bron:

    Chicago-based Corus Bank could be nearing failure.

    Corus Bank’s loan portfolio is heavily weighted toward condo construction—not a great place to be during this real estate meltdown. Worse than that, it has projects in hard hit places like Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California.

    The bank had a net operating loss of more than $750 million during the first six months of the year. It’s also reporting that, by the end of June, more than 70 percent of its loans were non-performing. That’s really serious. To compare, the FDIC says other banks like Corus have about a 4.5 percent non-performing loan rate.

    In a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Corus warned that it might not be able to return to profitable operations and that there was a chance it could fail.
  18. Ruud100 12 september 2009 12:08
    Banenverlies mkb veel groter dan gedacht

    Gepubliceerd: gisteren 14:50

    In het midden- en kleinbedrijf verdwijnen dit jaar 67.000 banen en volgend jaar nog eens 135.000. Dat blijkt uit onderzoek dat onderzoeksbureau EIM heeft verricht in opdracht van MKB-Nederland, de werkgeversorganisatie van het midden- en kleinbedrijf. In januari ging het EIM er nog van uit dat er dit jaar tussen de 30.000 en 50.000 zouden verdwijnen.

    Als verklaring voor het banenverlies wordt gegeven dat de arbeidsproductiviteit achterblijft bij de loonontwikkeling. MKB-Nederland is bang dat de arbeidsmarkt de grootste klap nog moet krijgen.
  19. Ruud100 12 september 2009 14:53
    Eerste highlight:
    But banks have persuaded politicians on both sides of the Atlantic that the real problem came not when their financial inadequacies were obscured by bad accounting, but when they were revealed as the losses mounted.

    Opmerkelijk standpunt.

    Gr
    Ruud

    Accountants Misled Us Into Crisis
    By FLOYD NORRIS
    Published: September 10, 2009

    The accountants let us down.

    That is one of the clear lessons of the financial crisis that drove the world into a deep recession. We now know the major banks were hiding dubious assets off their balance sheets and stretching rules if not breaking them. We know that their capital was woefully inadequate for the risks they were taking.
    quote:

    schreef:

    Efforts are now being made to improve the rules, with some success. But banks have persuaded politicians on both sides of the Atlantic that the real problem came not when their financial inadequacies were obscured by bad accounting, but when they were revealed as the losses mounted.
    [/quote]
    “There were important aspects of our entire financial system that were operating like a Wild West show, huge unregulated opaque markets,” said the man whose job was to write the accounting rules, Robert H. Herz, the chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board.

    [quote=]
    “The crisis highlighted how important better transparency around that system is,” Mr. Herz added in an interview this week. “I would hope that would be a major lesson learned or relearned.”

    Unfortunately, some seem to have learned exactly the opposite lesson. Accounting rule makers at FASB and its international equivalent, the International Accounting Standards Board, have been lambasted for efforts to improve transparency by forcing banks to disclose what their dodgy assets are actually worth, as opposed to what the banks think they should be worth.
    [/quote]

    Both boards have tried to resist, but have been forced by political pressure to back down on some specifics. The international board was given a long weekend to retreat, with the European Commission threatening to impose its own rules if the board did not cave in.

    The banks have argued that market values can be misleading, and that their own estimates of the eventual cash flow from assets are more realistic than what they — or others — will now pay for those assets. The rules already allowed them to ignore so called “distress sales” in assessing fair value, but the banks pushed to broaden that exemption in the United States, while in Europe they got the regulators to allow them to retroactively stop calculating market value for assets they said they did not intend to sell.

    [quote=]
    Behind the scenes, there is a battle pitting securities regulators — who instinctively favor disclosure — against banking regulators, who fear there are times when disclosure could make a bad situation worse.

    The securities regulators argue that accounting should do its best to report the actual financial condition of a company. If the banking regulators want to allow banks to use different rules in calculating capital — rules that would not require marking down assets, for example — then they can do so without depriving investors of important information.
    But that information could scare those investors, and set off the kind of panic that brought down Lehman Brothers a year ago.

    It is the job of banking regulators to keep their institutions healthy, and that effort can only be helped by accounting that reveals problems early. But if the banks do get into trouble, some regulators would prefer to maintain the appearance of prosperity while efforts are made to fix the problems quietly.

    It can be argued that approach worked nearly 20 years ago, when some banks were allowed to pretend they were solvent after the Latin American debt crisis, and were able to earn their way out of the problem over the ensuing decade.

    Had a different course been chosen in the early 1990s, Citibank might have vanished. Given what has happened to Citi in this crisis, it is not clear if that would have been a good or bad outcome.

    Fair value is not the only important issue. Some of the biggest and worst surprises of the financial crisis came when banks suffered large losses from assets that they had not even reported they owned. “With the benefit of hindsight, we know that standards were not complied with,” said Mr. Herz, regarding the rules on which assets could be left off balance sheets.

    Those rules hinged largely on something called “qualified special-purpose entities,” or Q’s for short. As the Securities and Exchange Commission pointed out, banks were able to greatly expand the scope of Q’s, “beyond the simple pass-through entities envisioned by the FASB.”

    FASB now is moving to get rid of Q’s, a category that the international board never accepted to begin with. Off-balance sheet accounting is being cleaned up.

    The fights over bank accounting are taking place against the backdrop of the S.E.C. trying to decide whether and when to move the United States to international accounting standards, and as the two boards seek to converge on one set of accounting rules.

    Mr. Ciesielski fears convergence could lead to acceptance of the weakest standards for banks. But without convergence, the S.E.C. will have no standing to oversee application of international standards, or to act as a counterweight if European politicians try to order even weaker standards to protect their banks.
  20. Ruud100 12 september 2009 22:15
    Istithmar Said to Halt Investment; Dubai Weighs Sale (Update2)
    By Jonathan Keehner and Serena Saitto

    Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Istithmar World, the Dubai sovereign wealth fund, is halting investments as part of a restructuring effort after spending more than $25 billion this decade on stakes ranging from a yacht marina to luxury retailer Barneys New York, according to people familiar with the plan.

    A restructuring by Istithmar and its parent Dubai World may mark the most public reversal of fortune for a state-controlled investment firm since global credit markets seized up in 2007. Sovereign wealth funds, fueled in part by oil revenue, have become sources of capital around the world for companies, including Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

    Istithmar and Dubai World have struggled this year on investments including Barneys, which may be facing a restructuring or bankruptcy and CityCenter, an $11 billion project in Las Vegas. Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest member of the United Arab Emirates, provided a $10 billion bailout this year for Dubai as the emirate struggled to meet payments on $80 billion of debt used to finance real-estate projects.

    Debt Load
    Istithmar spent more than $25 billion on investments this decade, according to the Monitor-FEEM SWF transaction database. Among its investments are Yacht Haven Grande, a marina complex in the Caribbean, the W Hotel Union Square in New York and GLG Partners Inc., a hedge fund that has lost more than 61 percent of its value since the deal was announced in June 2007.

    “Istithmar is in serious trouble,” said Rochdi Younsi, head of Middle East research at New York-based Eurasia Group. “At Istithmar, there’s a feeling that jobs aren’t secure and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the firm just disappeared.”
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Aalberts 466 7.001
AB InBev 2 5.482
Abionyx Pharma 2 29
Ablynx 43 13.356
ABN AMRO 1.582 51.203
ABO-Group 1 22
Acacia Pharma 9 24.692
Accell Group 151 4.132
Accentis 2 264
Accsys Technologies 23 10.528
ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES PLC 218 11.686
Ackermans & van Haaren 1 188
ADMA Biologics 1 34
Adomos 1 126
AdUX 2 457
Adyen 14 17.650
Aedifica 3 901
Aegon 3.258 322.664
AFC Ajax 538 7.086
Affimed NV 2 6.288
ageas 5.844 109.885
Agfa-Gevaert 14 2.048
Ahold 3.538 74.294
Air France - KLM 1.025 34.998
AIRBUS 1 11
Airspray 511 1.258
Akka Technologies 1 18
AkzoNobel 467 13.036
Alfen 16 24.333
Allfunds Group 4 1.468
Almunda Professionals (vh Novisource) 651 4.251
Alpha Pro Tech 1 17
Alphabet Inc. 1 405
Altice 106 51.198
Alumexx ((Voorheen Phelix (voorheen Inverko)) 8.486 114.813
AM 228 684
Amarin Corporation 1 133
Amerikaanse aandelen 3.835 242.746
AMG 971 133.089
AMS 3 73
Amsterdam Commodities 305 6.686
AMT Holding 199 7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp 2 485
Antonov 22.632 153.605
Aperam 92 14.936
Apollo Alternative Assets 1 17
Apple 5 380
Arcadis 252 8.731
Arcelor Mittal 2.033 320.579
Archos 1 1
Arcona Property Fund 1 286
arGEN-X 17 10.288
Aroundtown SA 1 219
Arrowhead Research 5 9.716
Ascencio 1 26
ASIT biotech 2 697
ASMI 4.108 39.082
ASML 1.766 106.062
ASR Nederland 21 4.451
ATAI Life Sciences 1 7
Atenor Group 1 470
Athlon Group 121 176
Atrium European Real Estate 2 199
Auplata 1 55
Avantium 32 13.610
Axsome Therapeutics 1 177
Azelis Group 1 64
Azerion 7 3.390