Tulum schreef op 7 juli 2017 16:51:
Uit Barron's
Galapagos N.V. ADR (GLPG) is up more than 18% in the past year, but over the past couple of months it has lagged some of its biotech peers, and that’s made the stock more appealing—but not enough to buy.
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That’s the conclusion of Janney Capital’s Debjit Chattopadhyay: He upgraded Galapagos to Neutral from Sell on Friday, citing the fact that the stock has underperformed the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) by some 30% in the past few months, and is now close to his fair value estimate of $74.
He also expects that there could be renewed interest in the stock to come, given that the clinical catalyst calendar during the second half of this year and into 2018 will probably generate early data “across multiple wholly-owned and partnered programs.”
Yet he also sees the risk-reward as equally balanced at the moment, and warns that there are factors that keep him on the sidelines at least for the near term. Details from his note:
Issues with the potentiator -2451, could complicate development timeline for any planned pivotal program. Recall, at the recent R&D day, Galapagos disclosed antibody-like half-life and an active metabolite for -2451, an added complexity to the dosing/schedule for the first triple-combo. Hence, Galapagos might have to wait until second potentiator -3067, is ready for prime time (-3067 SAD study is complete and MAD study is enrolling). Along with -3067, development timelines on C2 (-3221) could be rate-limiting, before the final triple-combo components can be reliably selected for the phase 3 program. Hence, Galapagos and partner AbbVie (ABBV) may not be able to finalize candidate selection for the pivotal program until 2019, which is firmly behind competitor and potentially increasing regulatory/ commercial hurdles. Remainder of the pipeline (ex-filgotinib) though unique and compelling is early and inherently risky, and we await early POC data to become more constructive.
Galapagos is up 0.4% to $75.98 in recent trading.